Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cheyenne Wyoming
1118 am MST Monday Feb 8 2016

Short term...(today through Wednesday night)
issued at 250 am MST Monday Feb 8 2016

Winds will remain rather breezy across much of the forecast area
overnight as the 700 mb gradient remains between 40 and 50 mtrs
with the jet stream overhead. Expect the strongest winds to be
over the north Snowy Range foothills including Arlington/Elk
Mountain and the southern Laramie range where 40 to 50 miles per hour gusts
are likely. Gusts 25 to 35 miles per hour or higher are possible elsewhere...
including over the Nebraska Panhandle.

For today...not anticipating much change in winds from current
conditions...with widespread gusty winds expected to continue across
the area. Temperatures will continue the upward trend as a high
amplitude ridge builds over the West Coast and 700 mb temperatures overhead
warm to between -4 to -6. Think a few high temperatures across the plains
will break the 40 degree mark...although snow cover will obviously
keep temperatures from spiking too high. Overall...widespread middle to upper
30s with a few locations peaking in the low 40s are a good bet.

Temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will increase further as readings at
700 mb rise into the single digits above zero by Wednesday. Expect low
to middle 50s across the plains by Wednesday as a result. Surface
pressure gradient forecasts through this time will remain roughly in
the 30 mtr range...thus breezy winds will persist at least in the
wind prone areas along and west of the Laramie range. Dry
conditions will prevail as models show very little moisture moving
overhead. Will have to watch for stratus and perhaps some
localized areas of fog in the high valleys out west overnight
though as boundary layer moisture forecasts are high while winds

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 250 am MST Monday Feb 8 2016

The pattern across the country will feature a general longwave
trough over the eastern Continental U.S. With ridging over the west. The County Warning Area
will reside under northwesterly flow aloft Thursday into Saturday before a
shortwave passes across late Saturday into Sunday. Mainly dry
weather is expected through the period though the shortwave late
in the weekend could bring some shower activity so may eventually
need some probability of precipitation for that time. Otherwise mild temperatures expected
overall through the period with temperatures above seasonal norms. A
pretty good surge of cold air looks to drop out of the Canadian
prairies Friday but the bulk of the colder air will pass east of
the County Warning Area...with just the western periphery backing up against the
mountains Friday then retreating back east Saturday.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1117 am MST Monday Feb 8 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period with generally
scattered to broken coverage of middle and high cloud. Gusty winds will occur
across much of the area today...especially over the southeast Wyo
terminals where a few gusts to 35 kts are possible.


Fire weather...
issued at 250 am MST Monday Feb 8 2016

No fire weather concerns are expected through at least early in the
week due to a surface snowpack across the area and high relative
humidities. A warming trend is expected by the middle of the
week...but minimum humidities will remain above 30 percent. Breezy
winds will prevail for much of the district.


Cys watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...rjm
fire weather...rjm

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations