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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cheyenne Wyoming
804 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

issued at 801 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

Area fuels were updated today to include most areas west of the
Laramie range. Since we are coming into an extended warm...dry and
windy period beginning Wednesday...went ahead and issued red flag
warnings for those zones where fuels have been reported ready.
Some questions still on the Laramie range and Laramie County east
of the Laramie range. Could be the winds stay light enough to keep
these two zones out of the red flag warnings. Will wait to see
what the 00z guidance shows. Updates have been sent.


Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 300 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

Majority of concerns this period will focus on fire weather Wednesday
and Thursday as hot and dry conditions will be accompanied by
some gusty winds in the afternoons over parts of the County Warning Area.

Currently fairly quiet across the County Warning Area with some showers trying to
develop around the Snowy Range with a bit less buildup elsewhere
around the southeast Wyoming mountains still could see a bit of convection over
southern parts of the County Warning Area late this afternoon into this evening before
dissipating and have tailored low probability of precipitation for this scenario.

Little overall change seen in the pattern affecting the County Warning Area Wednesday
through Thursday with southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a digging upper
trough over the Pacific northwest. Better moisture looks like it will
remain shunted to the east but with any weak impulses riding up in
the flow at least isolated afternoon and evening convection
possible both days...though somewhat better on Thursday with a
somewhat stronger wave looking to lift across eastern Colorado. Temperatures
quite warm over lower elevations Wednesday with parts of the Panhandle
likely flirting with 100f for maxes Wednesday...aided by relatively dry
air and downslope flow behind a surface trough that will drift east
across the Panhandle Wednesday. Little change for Thursday other than
the somewhat better chance for convection mainly around the southeast Wyoming
mountains surface cool front may begin to sag south across the plains
Thursday night but looks dry.

Long term...(friday through tuesday)
issued at 300 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

The majority of the medium range models are consistent depicting
a broad upper ridge dominating the eastern 2/3 of the Continental U.S. With
a upper trough over the intermountain west this weekend. Rockies
and High Plains will be under the influence of a moist southwest
flow Friday through Saturday with embedded upper level shortwave
activity enhancing convective development. Higher probability of precipitation relegated
to the higher terrain both days. Near normal temperatures Friday
cool slightly Saturday with the passage of weak front. On Sunday
the upper trough lifts northeast across the northern rockies and
Great Plains with a drier westerly flow aloft. There may be some
residual moisture for isolated afternoon convection highest elev
of the southeast Wyoming mountains early next week. Temperatures next
week will average slightly above seasonal normals.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 506 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

VFR conditions expected through next 24 hours. Convection seen on
radar this late afternoon should die off with loss of daytime
heating and become very isolated in nature. Airports impacted the
next few hours would be krwl...klar and to a lesser extent kcys.
Gust to 40 miles per hour and cloud to ground lightning will be the primary
hazards with these storms over the next few hours.


Fire weather...
issued at 300 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

Critical or near critical conditions still look a good possibility
over parts of western and northern zones Wednesday and Thursday afternoon
as winds and min rhs will be around critical thresholds. Worst
conditions appear they will be over western Converse County Wednesday
afternoon. Otherwise generally dry and quite warm conditions
continuing for the rest of the week with just isolated afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms mainly around the southeast Wyoming mountains


Cys watches/warnings/advisories... flag warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for wyz301>304-



long term...maj

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