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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cheyenne Wyoming
219 am MST Friday Nov 27 2015

Short term...(today through Saturday night)
issued at 300 am MST Friday Nov 27 2015

Still keeping a close eye on windchill temperatures this morning.
Windchills and snow amounts continue to be the forecast challenges
in the short term.

Currently...surface high pressure over northeastern Wyoming and
eastern Montana this morning keeps a northeast gradient over the
County warning forecast area this morning. Temperatures have fallen into the upper single
digits at 1 Ama cross much of southeast Wyoming...with low to middle
teens in the Panhandle. Winds from various sensors across the County warning forecast area
showing strongest speeds...and lowest wind chill out along the
I-80 corridor. Wind chills for the most part...have been holding
in the middle to upper high teens below zero in such locations as
Encampment...Elk Mountain and Arlington with gusts holding in the
low 20mph range. Will continue to monitor early this morning and
issue appropriate windchill headlines as needed. Concerned with
this as the black Friday lines could be subjecting people to these
cold temperatures. Folks need to bundle up if participating in
these activities early this morning.

Water vapor imagery showing upper level low circulation over
west central Utah this morning. Could get some energy off this
circulation for some increased snow activity later today.

For today...should see a decrease in the snow shower activity
through the morning and afternoon hours. Remaining cold today with
highs struggling to hit 20 at most locations. Both the GFS and
European model (ecmwf) bring a piece of energy from the upstream low into Carbon
County this evening and we should see an increase in snow coverage
across the County warning forecast area late this evening into Saturday morning. BUFKIT
soundings still showing possibility of freezing drizzle out in the
Panhandle. Will let the day shift take another look at it though
before adding into the forecast tonight and Saturday morning.

Best chances for snow Saturday look to be our northern
zones...Converse/Niobrara counties in southeast Wyoming and the
northern half of the Nebraska Panhandle. These areas could see 2-3
inches of snow. Still have time before any winter headlines need
to be issued. Decided to let the day shift take another look at
this as well before issuing.

Long term...(sunday through thursday)
issued at 300 am MST Friday Nov 27 2015

Sunday...pesky slow moving upper low resides over western Wyoming
with a shortwave trough aloft spoke of energy rotating across our
counties producing isolated to scattered snow showers. Highest
coverage will be over the mountains due to orographics. Continued
cold with Arctic airmass entrenched and with cloud cover and cold
temperatures aloft.

Monday...slow moving upper low moves into eastern Nebraska with its
wraparound clouds and snow only over our northern and eastern
counties late in the day...east of a Douglas to Sidney line.
Continued cold per prognosticated thicknesses and temperatures aloft.

Tuesday...drying out day as the flow turns northerly after our
departing upper low moves further to our east. Warming trend
tempered by north flow aloft and some residual middle and high cloud
cover leftover from the upper trough.

Wednesday...slow warming trend continues as the transitory ridge
aloft...moves overhead. Expect some lower elevation temperatures to
finally crack the freezing mark per moderation in the airmass and
per prognosticated thicknesses and 700 mb temperature trends.

Thursday...continued slow warming trend as surface Lee troughing
becomes better established...thanks to the flow aloft turning
westerly and allowing our low levels to finally moderate...with
respect to temperatures. No precipitation expected with lack of low
and middle level moisture and with minimal lift.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1130 PM MST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Mountains frequently obscured.

Wyoming tafs...MVFR prevails...though with localized IFR at

Nebraska tafs...MVFR prevails...with VFR at Chadron after 17z.


Fire weather...
issued at 300 am MST Friday Nov 27 2015

No fire weather concerns anticipated in the near term due to snow
through the end of the week...and very cold temperatures through the


Cys watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...gcc
long term...Rubin
fire weather...gcc

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