Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1043 am EST Sat Feb 6 2016
high pressure will keep fair and relatively mild conditions in
place for the remainder of the weekend. The potential remains for
widespread light to moderate snows over parts of the area into
midweek...but confidence is low due to a complicated pattern
evolution. Temperatures will trend colder with time...enhanced by
an Arctic front toward the end of the week.
Near term /through tonight/...
broken-overcast layered middle-to-high level ac/cirrus should Peel off the east
and allow for more sunshine this afternoon. With SW flow and dry
air...bust potential is to the upside for maximum T. An upward
adjustment may be necessary with the next update based on hourly
trends. M/clear skies and dewpoints in the teens suggests mins
could go lower than forecast..and will need to look at that as well.
Overall pretty quiet weather to start what will be a relatively mild
first weekend of Feb 2016.
Short term /Sunday/...
Sunday will be rather nice as a weak shortwave ridge probability of precipitation over the
region ahead of the next system dropping out of the upper Midwest
and over top of a strong upper low exiting the coast down around
Georgia. Highs in most areas in the 40s will be the warmest
readings we will southeast for a while as a cooling trend is on the way
for next week.
Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
the extended part of the forecast will feature a cool down as an
anomalous upper trough develops over the eastern US.
What appears certain is we will have an extended period of
unsettled weather...possibly several periods of light snow...but
what still is uncertain is if a single potent low can bring a
more significant coherent heavy snow event.
The gefs and ecens have not varied from the scenario shown last
night with a low developing over Virginia Monday night/early
Tuesday...and then moving pretty much straight east off the coast
before curling up over the New England coastal waters. A track
like that would spare US a "big" snow storm but with the slow
moving upper low...the model qpf's on the order of a couple of
tenths up to perhaps as much as half inch over the course of 2
days looks reasonable...along with snow totals of several inches
in many areas.
The most certain part of the forecast is that the upper trough is
expected to be slow moving over the eastern US...driving colder
air into the region...and a chunk of unseasonably cold air down
into the Gulf states. The northwest flow will keep the normal lake effect
and orographic snow showers going into late week as a series of
weak disturbances in the northwest flow aloft keep US on the chilly and
Aviation /15z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR throughout central PA airspace with no sig weather. Occasional surface wind
gusts 15-20kts western sections/zob airspace...diminishing into tonight.
Sun-Monday am...no sig weather expected.
Monday PM-Tue...widespread IFR possible in -sn.
Wednesday...IFR/MVFR in shsn western airspace...MVFR-VFR central/east. Surface
wind gusts 20+kt from 270-300.
near term...la corte/steinbugl
short term...la corte
long term...la corte