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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
710 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL PRECEDE A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN CIRRUS SHOULD SLINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING...LEAVING
ALMOST FULL SUN TODAY. SOME DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE AS THE TEMPS
RISE VERY NICELY...WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS TAKING A RUN AT 80F.
THE MAIN STORY TODAY IS THE COLD/DRY FRONT WHICH WILL DROP DOWN
FROM NY ABOUT NOON. WHILE NOT MAKING ANY PRECIP AND FEW
CLOUDS...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WNW. DRY FRONTS ARE
WINDY FRONTS. GUSTS COULD BE 25-30 MPH. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR
WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE CRESTING OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING.
RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO WRN PA IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN
WILL EVENTUALLY COVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE EAST CLOSE TO SUNRISE. STRONG LLVL SERLY FLOW COULD
MAKE IT GUSTY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RAINFALL
WILL MAKE SOME RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS WE
GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A ROUND OF SHOWERS THEN PUSHES THROUGH
WITH COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE
EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN
TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA
TO FORM. IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE
STATE...WHERE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO NR 20KTS. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
HEAVY. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY 50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE MILD AND DRY TODAY...WITH A GUSTY BUT DRY FRONT
PRESSING DOWN FROM NEW YORK DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE DAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. DRYING FINE FUELS AND GUSTY
WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL KEEP THE RFW TO
JUST THIS AFTERNOON SINCE WE WILL BE IN FOR JUST ONE AFTERNOON OF
REALLY LOW RH/S AND GUSTY WIND. WHILE IT MAY BE GUSTY ON
SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A
STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...

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