Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
512 PM EDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015
high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through Thursday
with mainly dry conditions and temperatures averaging near to
above normal. A low pressure system moving from the Great Lakes
through New England will drag a cold front across central PA and
bring rain showers on Friday. High pressure will regain control
of the weather pattern and return fair and dry conditions for the
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
latest visible satellite imagery shows good deal of of breaks in the
clouds that will lead to at least a partly if not mostly sunny
later afternoon and early evening. Cold front over the eastern Great
Lakes is forecast to across northwestern PA over the next several hours.
Clouds may thicken up a bit along the front...but will crumble
most places later this evening as high pressure builds into the
region after sunset
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through 6 PM Thursday/...
high pressure is forecast to move east across New York state on Thursday
providing central PA with another uneventful weather day. Clear
skies and light winds overnight will lead to the development of
areas of fog...some of it likely locally dense...Thursday morning.
Otherwise expect generally sunny skies and above normal seasonal
Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
still a fairly high confidence forecast through the weekend as
warm front slips through Thursday night followed by a cold front on
Friday. Model trends over past two runs trying to separate the
features into two sets of precipitation producers. The warm front precipitation
looks to be confined to the northwest mountains and northward into New York state
Thursday night closest to 850mb low...while best forcing with cold
front has trended further south as energy slips from the Ohio
Valley toward the Carolinas where an upper low gradually develops
over the weekend. This should keep precipitation on the light side over
central PA...with best probs in the northwest Thursday night and sliding from
northwest to southeast on Friday...with quantitative precipitation forecast totals in the 0.10-0.20" range. Still
seeing a small amount of cape over the southeast late Friday...so maintained
mention of chance thunderstorm there.
Saturday looks dry and will be the coolest day out of the next 7
with daytime highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s and nighttime lows
in the u30s to m40s.
The global models and ensembles continue to indicate a brisk west
to northwest flow aloft extending along the Canadian border into
the northeast next week. Retrogression of the West Texas trough to
off the Pacific coast of Mexico appears to allow for broad
troughiness to develop/persist east of The Rockies...with lead
shortwave energy closing off in vicinity of the Carolina/Georgia coast this
weekend...followed by a second northern stream wave and surface cold front
reaching the Appalachians by next Tuesday. After bottoming on
Saturday...expect temperatures to moderate with seasonably mild readings
through Tuesday with a slight cool down midweek.
Aviation /21z Wednesday through Monday/...
All terminals are VFR as of 5pm...and will continue into the
evening before areas of fog bring reductions to IFR/MVFR late at
night and to start Thursday.
VFR conditions will return by middle to late morning Thursday as high
pressure builds southward from Quebec.
Friday...showers/MVFR ceilings poss.
Sat-Mon...no sig weather expected.