Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service State College PA
1042 am EDT Monday Apr 21 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure will move east of the region today with milder air
brining a warm day. A cold front will bring a chance of showers
and even a thunderstorm to the area on Tuesday. Behind the front
temperatures will return back to normal with a dry weak until
another front approaches on Friday.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
impressive warm up underway with downsloping southerly wind
allowing Keri and kbfd to warm into the 60s already (64f and 60f
respectively). Elsewhere...temperatures have reached the lower to middle
50s over the rest of central PA...and most areas will reach upper
60s to lower 70s this afternoon. Enjoy.

&&

Short term /Tuesday/...
850t rises to near 10c this afternoon will lead to a warm day with
most locations into the 70s. Should see increase in mainly high
clouds ahead of approaching system late in the day. Front
approaches Monday night with thickening clouds and mild low
temperatures. Frontal system showers on Tuesday. There should be
enough instability to have thunder accompany the front...but at
this point not looking for anything severe...though small hail is
possible with strong jet maximum and rapidly cooling temperatures aloft.

&&

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
front will push through the County Warning Area Tuesday evening with cool high
pressure on Wednesday as temperatures drop back to average or
slightly below. High pressure will bring dry conditions on
Thursday with milder temperatures. Next front will bring higher
probability of precipitation on Friday into early Saturday. At this point expect the cold
front to bring cooler temperatures to the region for next
weekend...thought it does look mainly dry.

&&

Aviation /15z Monday through Friday/...
a weakening ridge aloft will continue to bring VFR conditions
through tonight. After a sunny start...high clouds will increase
as the day wears on. Light winds will increase from the south to
5-10 kts...before turning SW tonight.

For Tuesday...a short wave and associated front will bring
lowering/thickening clouds and rain showers to
Pennsylvania...starting in the northwest by 12z. May see an isolated
tstorm in the susq valley later in the day. Breezy northwest winds will
develop in the afternoon...and continue into Wednesday.



Outlook...

Tuesday...several-hour period of MVFR ceilings poss with brief MVFR visibilities
in showers accompanying a cold frontal passage. Breezy northwest winds
developing late.

Tuesday night-Wed...MVFR north/west with scattered -shra...VFR elsewhere.
Breezy northwest winds.

Thursday...VFR. No sig weather.

Friday...MVFR with chance rain showers.

&&

Ctp watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Ross
near term...Ross/devoir
short term...Ross
long term...Ross
aviation...rxr