Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
342 am EDT Sat Aug 29 2015
high pressure centered over the Poconos of northeastern Penn early
this morning will drift off the East Coast over the weekend. Much
warmer weather will move into region for the weekend...and very
warm and increasingly humid weather will continue into the middle
of next week.
Near term /until 8 am this morning/...
a very pleasant August night continues throughout central PA.
Surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s across
the north...and middle to upper 50s in most other places will likely
be lowered by another few degree f early today under mainly clear
skies with nearly calm air in many locations.
Low temperatures at sunrise will vary from the chilly middle to upper 40s
across the northwest mountains...to the middle and upper 50s
throughout the Susquehanna River valley.
Patchy fog will develop throughout the deeper valleys of the north
Short term /8 am this morning through 6 PM Sunday/...
after the patchy early fog quickly Burns off...today will keep
the recent string of mainly fair days in tact...while warming up
by 4 or 5 degree on average. Middle to late afternoon high temperatures will be
in the upper 70s to around 80f across the northern and western mountains of the
state...and in the lower to middle 80s elsewhere.
Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
a weakening shortwave and surface boundary should be enough to
generate a few rain showers/thunderstorms and rain on Sunday...with the best chance of seeing
rainfall being across the western Highlands.
After that...the long term looks to be dominated by an anomalous
upper-level ridge across the eastern United States. The 12z gefs
shows 850hpa temperatures running +1sd across through next
week...which will translate to above-normal surface temperatures. This
warmth and increasing humidity should allow for at least a slight
chance for diurnal convection each day...but the probability of
widespread rainfall is low.
There are a couple of interesting features that bear watching for
late in the long term period. The first is the remnants of
Erika...which are forecast to be in the vicinity of the Florida/Georgia coast by
the middle of next week. It remains to be seen whether moisture
from this system will eventually try to work its way northward
into PA. The other interesting feature is a backdoor cold front that
some models bring into the Middle-Atlantic States next thurs/Fri. This
feature could have an impact on temperatures late next week.
Aviation /07z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions continuing at most locations overnight. Bfd briefly
went below IFR...as has unv...and considering the clear skies and
overnight dew point depressions...could see periods of IFR through
sunrise. However the patchy fog is less dense then previous nights
so it will be less widespread. Any restrictions will burn off
quickly after sunrise. The remaindeer of the day will feature a
continuation of VFR conditions with only a few high based cumulus and
Sun-Mon...mainly VFR with a shower/thunderstorm possible.
Tue-Wed...no sig weather expected.
short term...la corte