Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
324 PM EDT sun may 3 2015
high pressure over the southern Appalachians will drift east and
off the Carolina coast tonight. A developing southwesterly flow
will lead to warmer temperatures that will continue through at
least the middle of the upcoming week.
Near term /through tonight/...
heating has caused the development of some fair weather cumulus and
Alto-cu. Otherwise its a fine late Spring day with temperatures
generally in the 70s.
We should lose the clouds with the loss of heating. Lows will drop
back into the middle to upper 40s.
Short term /Monday/...
Monday will feature morning sunshine followed by more diurnally
enhanced afternoon cumulus. Any chance for a shower or thunderstorm will
be across the northwest mountains and limited to late in the afternoon
and evening as a cold front sags southeast from the glakes.
Highs Monday will rise into the middle 70s to lower 80s.
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
shortwave trough tracking east from southeastern Canada north of
the Great Lakes will help push a backdoor-style surface cold front
into central PA by early Tuesday. The front will waver near the
Mason-Dixon line Tuesday-Wednesday and serve as a focus for clouds and
precipitation...as impulses of energy ripple through aloft on the northern
periphery of building ridge over the mid-south. Kept mention of
schc thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon across the southern 2/3rds of the County Warning Area per Storm Prediction Center dy3
outlook. Models are coming into slightly better agreement
concerning quantitative precipitation forecast placement and amts and thus have increased probability of precipitation
another 5-10pct to 50-60 percent range.
The pattern from the middle to later part of the week continues
to look rather stagnant with mean troughing slowly progressing
east from the western U.S. Into the plains...with precipitation
focusing near the front-side of the trough over the central
states and northeastward along the periphery of the southeast upper ridge
from the upper Midwest/Great Lakes into New England. The northern Middle
Atlantic States appear to be on the edge of the favored precipitation zone. In
general the precipitation pattern should be Summer-like with weak forcing
under high heights aloft...increasing low level moisture and isolated-scattered
diurnal/terrain-driven convective activity. Will need to watch for
possible cooler maritime flow influence that could impact the
above normal temperature forecast especially with possible subtropical
cyclone formation off the southeast coast north of the Bahamas.
Aviation /19z Sunday through Friday/...
expect VFR conditions to continue through Monday. A taste of fine
An approaching cold front may trigger some showers across
north central PA Monday night into Tuesday. The front will likely
slow and create low ceilings/showers into Wednesday. The front may push to
the south on Thursday.
Tuesday...showers/thunderstorms and local reduced conditions.
Wednesday...continued showers and areas of MVFR/IFR.
Thu-Fri...no sig weather.
surface dewpoints and corresponding relative humidity values trended lower than forecast
this afternoon with many sites dropping below 30 percent. 10-hour
fine fuels are below the critical 10 percent level per coordination
with bof (via National Weather Service phi). Light winds kept fire danger in the
moderate category today...but that may change for Monday with an
uptick in winds anticipated...and little to no change in afternoon relative humidity
or fuels. Fire weather partners should continue to monitor the
forecasts with at least marginally critical conditions looking more
likely for Monday.
near term...la corte
short term...la corte