Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1105 PM EST Monday Jan 26 2015
the strong storm off the coast will move north and east away from
the region on Tuesday. High pressure will build over the region
for the middle of the week...followed by an Alberta clipper
Near term /until 8 am Tuesday morning/...
forecast rolling along...but tweaked the advisory area to center on
the central mts overnight where all guidance points to the snow
lingering through the night...but diminishing in coverage and
intensity. Lanc/York cos might also see some addtnl accums. It
should all be over by sunrise...and perhaps before. I could have
canx all of the advisory due to the low accums expected overnight.
But...the other skool of thought is that it is still snowing and
there could still be an inch or more of accumulate. Will continue
to revisit the layout of the advisories...and anticipate chopping some
off before daylight.
Short term /8 am Tuesday morning through 6 PM Tuesday/...
deformation snow showers should be all but over Tuesday
morning...while north-northwest flow in wake of departing coastal low draws
much drier air into central PA. 25 to 35kt NE wind gusts will be
felt as tight pressure gradient is realized in wake of storm just
offshore of southern New England coast. As previously
mentioned...there is the potential of some blowing/drifting...especially
eastern PA where bukfit soundings support gusts between 30-35kts. Ens
mean 925 temperatures support maximum temperatures Tuesday from near 20f over the north
mountains...to around 32f across the lower susq valley.
Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/...
deep storm will pull away from PA Tuesday night. With winds
from the north...took out snow showers for jst.
Skies should clear out by Wednesday morning.
Main change was Wednesday night...did lower temperatures...based on 12z
model runs...and that with mainly clear skies and light
winds...expect temperatures to drop...with fresh snow cover.
Next system will bring some snow showers to the area later Thursday
into Friday. This system not looking like it would result in
a coastal real near the coast.
Colder air for Friday night.
Weekend not looking too bad...colder air will try to build in
early next week.
Aviation /04z Tuesday through Saturday/...
for 00z package...extended poor conditions further out in
While conditions may not be bad all the time...as been the
case since I came in at 8 am this morning...deep storm
forming just off the middle Atlantic coast at this time will
continue to wrap moisture to the west. Radar shows rather
heavy snow now to the west and SW of MDT...extending
northward to between unv and ipt. SW winds at ipt suggest
inverted trough still in place. Snow will be an problem
until this feature falls apart on Tuesday.
Winds will pick up on Tuesday...as storm starts to pull
north adn east of the area.
Wednesday...VFR with no sig weather expected.
Thursday...VFR to start...with late day restrictions spreading in from
Thursday night-Fri...widespread IFR/MVFR in snow.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 am EST Tuesday for paz005-006-