Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1153 PM EST Friday Nov 28 2014
a weak warm front will bring a chance of light snow or flurries
to parts of the region tonight. It will turn milder but a bit unsettled
for much of the weekend. A cold front will move across the state
on Monday followed by a shot of colder weather on Tuesday...before
another warming trend begins for the middle of the week.
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
weak warm advection will bring a chance of light snow or flurries
to western and northern areas overnight. Light quantitative precipitation forecast will mean snow
accumulations of an inch or less. Otherwise most of the area will
just see increasing clouds with temperatures bottoming out in the
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night/...
heights continue to rise on Saturday with milder air aloft.
Forecast soundings support a moist boundary layer so while
temperatures moderate it will remain cloudy with patchy areas of
drizzle and fog and a few periods of showers. Northern valleys
could still be cold enough to bring a short period of light
freezing rain or drizzle Sat evening. Elsewhere will mention the chance
for showers through much of this period. Temperatures steadily rise
through the period with many areas reporting midnight high
temperatures on Saturday night and again Sunday night.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
broad...fast zonal flow in place at the start of the long term
period is forecast to persist through much of next week. Mild
weather...temperatures will be reaching into the middle 40s to middle 50s by
Sunday and several chance at weak...fast moving weather system
will feature in the period.
A relatively weak trough travels through the zonal flow...will bring a
front across the northeast on Monday...with the GFS and European model (ecmwf)
fairly consistent on their timing. Post frontal winds will bring
cooler temperatures back in for Tuesday as large surface high slides
across S Canada. Another trough will bring a front east for middle
week...but here the GFS/ec are less in sync with their timing at
this point. Large area of surface high pressure is forecast late
in the week...but with increasingly southeasterly flow on the south end
of the high...low clouds and light precipitation may not be out of the
Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions across continue across central Pennsylvania at
04z. Satellite and radar loops now showing light snow moving into
northwest Pennsylvania. This light snow will overspread northern
Pennsylvania overnight...with lowering conditions into generally
MVFR conditions overnight.
Warm air advection light snow will linger into the morning. While most
precipitation will slowly taper off...continued weak warm air advection and low
level moisture will keep clouds over the region through most of
the day and right into Sunday...with low chance probability of precipitation.
Precipitation type will be in the form of rain showers in central
and southern areas...with a potential light wintry mix across the
north Saturday night and early Sunday.
Cold front will swing through the region early Monday...followed
by high pressure. Generally VFR Post frontal...but chance of
ceiling restrictions in the north and west.
Sat...morning light snow with reduced visibilities and ceilings mainly
north. VFR elsewhere.
Sun...generally VFR...but ceiling/visibility restrictions possible in the
north and west.
Monday...low ceilings/rain showers poss...mainly West Mountains...generally VFR
Wednesday...chance of showers...and possible restrictions in the north
and west...with the approach of another front.
near term...la corte