Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
154 PM EST Friday Nov 28 2014
as high pressure moves east of the area this evening a weak warm
front will bring a chance of light snow or flurries to parts of
the region tonight. Saturday begins a warming trend with
temperatures rising above freezing and remaining so for the rest
of the weekend as milder air filters in. It will remain unsettled
with mainly cloudy skies and a slight chance of showers for much
of the weekend. A cold front will move across the state on Monday
bringing a chance of showers and a brief shot of colder weather on
Tuesday before another warming trend begins for the middle of the
Near term /through tonight/...
weak weather system in fast westerly flow will bring a chance of
light snow or flurries to western and northern County Warning Area overnight.
Light quantitative precipitation forecast and snow accumulations of an inch or less is expected.
Otherwise most of the area will see increasing clouds with
temperatures falling into the 20s.
Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...
heights continue to rise on Saturday with milder air aloft.
Forecast soundings support a moist boundary layer so while
temperatures moderate it will remain cloudy with patchy areas of
drizzle and fog and a few periods of showers. Northern valleys
could still be cold enough to bring a short period of light
freezing rain or drizzle Sat evening. Elsewhere will mention the chance
for showers through much of this period. Temperatures steadily rise
through the period with many areas reporting midnight high
temperatures on Saturday night and again Sunday night.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
broad zonal flow develops during the weekend. Temperatures will be
reaching into the middle 40s to middle 50s by Sunday.
Models seem to be back in better agreement on approach of a front
for Monday...though GFS/gefs continue to be 6 to maybe 12 hours
faster with frontal passage than the European model (ecmwf).
Post frontal winds will bring cooler temperatures back in for Tuesday as
large surface high slides across S Canada. Models in pretty good
agreement on large features for next week. GFS does make a more-
wet frontal passage at the end of the week...but all models seem to
be latching onto the frontal passage next Friday.
Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/...
most of the lake enhanced snow showers have decreased in
intensity. A warm front lifting into the region could produce a
period of light snow/reduced visibilities late tonight and early Sat am
over northern PA.
Sat...am light snow/reduced visibilities poss...mainly north. Low ceilings at
kbfd poss Sat night.
Sun...am low ceilings/dz poss kbfd.
Monday...low ceilings/rain showers poss...mainly West Mountains
Tuesday...no sig weather expected.