Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
250 am EST Sat Dec 27 2014
high pressure will bring dry weather and mild afternoon
temperatures to the region today. A weak cold front will bring a
chance of rain showers tonight and Sunday. The showers will
become mixed with a little snow across the western mountains by
Sunday morning. Colder and drier air will continue to filter into
the area next week with temperatures returning back to seasonal
normals...which will feel quite cold considering how warm it has
Near term /through today/...
high clouds will continue to gradually increase from the west
overnight...as the relatively flat upper level ridge axis over
the state slides to the middle Atlantic coast. Across the eastern
half of the County Warning Area skies have remained clear enough to permit enough
radiational cooling to drop temperatures into the upper 20s and
Mild air aloft combined with weak southerly flow and filtered sunshine
will bring another day of very warm temperatures for this late in
the year. Many areas across the eastern half of the County Warning Area will top
out above 50 degrees.
Short term /tonight through 6 PM Sunday/...
clouds increase quickly tonight ahead of approaching frontal
system. Probability of precipitation will increase as well with rain showers accompanying
the frontal passage on Sunday. Most of the area will have their
warmest reading overnight or during the morning with falling
temperatures during the afternoon.
Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
Sunday night and Monday begins with some uncertainty as to how the
frontal system exits the County Warning Area and whether a southern stream wave
that develops on the front moves far enough north to impact the
area. With cooling 850 temperatures...a mix of r/S is possible if this
wave does indeed develop and track far enough north. At this point
most of the guidance only gives the southeast zones a brief period of
mixed precipitation...and will continue with that as our forecast
at this time.
High pressure will build over the middle of the County by midweek
and slowly drift off the East Coast by the end of the
workweek...bringing an extended period of fair weather to the
forecast area. However...waves of colder air diving down from the
north will help temperatures will return to normal for the last week
Guidance is showing a more organized weather system developing by
next weekend...however there is much uncertainty in the
track given that this system is still a week out.
Aviation /08z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR conds will continue into Saturday as high pressure moves off
to our south. It's possible some low clouds could form towards
sunrise over the northwestern mountains...but this is a low confidence
outcome at this time so it was left out of the Bradford taf.
The next chance for reduced conditions will be Saturday night
into Sunday as a new frontal system sags slowly south across the
Sat nite-sun...MVFR/IFR with scattered rain or snow showers.