Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
303 PM EDT Thursday Aug 27 2015
an unseasonably strong upper trough will finally lift out ot the
east of the region by Friday. High pressure will then build in and
slowly drift off the East Coast over the weekend. Much warmer
temperatures will move into region for the weekend...and very warm
and increasingly humid weather will continue into the middle of
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
viz loops show the large shield of stratocu from the Ohio Valley
up into eastern Canada. Other than a stray light shower or
sprinkle over northern areas...we will remain dry under the
M-cloudy skies through late day.
Today will be the last cool day for quite a while. Below seasonal
ens mean 800 mb temperatures of only around 10c should translate to maximum temperatures
from the u60s over the alleghenies...to the middle-upper 70s across
the lower susq valley.
Skies should scatter out quickly with loss of heating...leading to
a cool night with prime radiational cooling conditions. With
dewpoints generally in the low to middle 50s...we should easily cool
close to these readings leading to areas of late night fog and low
Short term /6 am Friday morning through 6 PM Friday/...
Friday will begin our warm up as heights aloft begin to build.
After some early morning fog...skies will become partly to mostly
sunny and highs will average some 5-8 degree warmer than today.
Long term /Friday night through Thursday/...
central PA will be on the western edge of a surface high this
weekend...resulting in southwesterly flow and the return of
warmer...more humid air to the region.
A weak disturbance at the surface and aloft will approach from the
Ohio Valley late Sunday...and should weaken as it moves east...but
could bring some showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday evening
into Monday...mainly across the northern and western mountains.
Models continue to show a large upper level ridge building over the
eastern U.S. Early next week. This will cause temperatures to stay
above normal through at least midweek. It should also keep central
PA mainly dry...excluding isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms.
Aviation /19z Thursday through Tuesday/...
widespread ceilings in the 4000-6000' range will scatter out this
evening with the loss of heating. The clear skies and light winds
will lead to areas of fog and low clouds to form later tonight.
Expect widespread MVFR with local VFR late tonight and at sun up
Friday. Conditions will improve quickly Friday morning as the fog
Burns off to a VFR afternoon.
Thu-Sat...no sig weather expected.
Sun-Mon...mainly VFR with a shower/thunderstorm possible.
Tuesday...no sig weather expected.
near term...la corte
short term...la corte