Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service State College PA
133 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure at the surface and a ridge aloft will dominate the
weather through Monday. A deepening trough will likely produce
showers and rain Tuesday and push colder air into the region
Wednesday. High pressure should dominate and it will warm up ahead
of yet another short wave which could trigger showers again late
in the week or early next weekend.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
gorgeous day in progress across central PA with sunny skies and
light (mostly) northerly winds throughout. Extreme northeast
portions of the Lycoming valley and Endless Mountains are seeing
breezy conditions with northerly winds gusts over 20 miles per hour at
times...as an upper trough passage over upstate New York this
morning has aided mixing there.

High clouds...some opaque...continue to stream northward into the
Laurel Highlands and south central mountains...which are filtering
slightly more of the sun than expected. Temperatures are still in the low
to middle 60s as expected however.

High pressure remains in control overnight and Sunday with little
changes to going forecast.

&&

Short term /Sunday/...
high pressure and mostly clear skies continue on Sunday. Expect
winds to be lighter as ridge axis resides over eastern PA/New Jersey
border and southerly return flow starts to get established.
After a chilly start...Sunday should be another very pleasant
day with chance of rain remaining near below 5 percent. Highs will
warm through the middle to upper 60s throughout.

&&

Long term /Sunday night through Saturday/...
an active split flow pattern over North America is forecast to
evolve into a fairly well phased upper ridge over the eastern
U.S. Toward the end of the period. This will result in limited
chances for precipitation through much of the period.

At this time the naefs and gefs favor rainfall on Tuesday ahead of
the one of a series of waves. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts are generally light
under 0.20 inches and the pattern does not favor heavy rainfall.
Cold air comes in behind this wave. If there are lingering showers
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday there could be some snow mixed in
over the northern mountains.

Wednesday will be a chilly day only slight chance showers. Rebound
in temperatures is fast and Thursday should be a dry sunny day.
The fast flow implies another shortwave and increasing chance of
showers Friday or Saturday. This system too currently looks a bit
moisture starved.

&&

Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/...
building high pressure will bring VFR conditions through Sunday.
Winds be 8-12kt this afternoon while ceiling and visibility remain
unrestricted. Winds become light from the NE for tonight into
Sunday.

Outlook...

Sun-Mon...no sig weather.

Tuesday...several-hour period of MVFR ceilings poss with brief MVFR visibilities
in showers accompanying a cold frontal passage.

Wednesday...MVFR north/west with chance -shra...VFR elsewhere.

Thursday...MVFR to VFR...breezy.

&&

Ctp watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...devoir
near term...devoir
short term...devoir
long term...grumm/gartner
aviation...devoir/rxr