Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1214 PM EDT sun Oct 4 2015
a large area of high pressure over southern Quebec will drift
south over the next several days and slowly weaken. Dry weather
will result for most of the work week...with a mainly dry cold
front in the middle of the week. The next significant chance of
rain will be on the weekend.
Near term /until 8 PM this evening/...
drying and clearing keeps making slow progress into the County Warning Area from
the E/NE. All is on track but uncertainty remains as to how far
into the County Warning Area the clearing will get. Have slowed the progress from
what the current advance seems to be but still brightened the sky
grids somewhat. But you can see some returns associated with the
air mass change on the radar - is it bugs or just the
drier/heavier air undercutting the moist air and bending the
beam somewhat? Middle susq locations shooting up to nearly 60f now.
Short term /8 PM this evening through 6 PM Monday/...
drier surface-850 mb air /and at least partial clearing/ will move
over the region from NE to SW tonight into Monday as surface high
pressure drifts sswd across the northern Appalachians. This
drying makes to the Allegheny Front Monday morning.
Sky cover tonight and Monday will be minimal and lead to partly
to mostly sunny skies during the day Monday.
Low temperatures tonight will be between 40 and 45f.
Probability of precipitation for this afternoon/evening...right through Monday will be
very low...or near zero.
Temsp Monday will rebound by at least several degree f /mainly in the
middle to upper 60s/. They'll get back to normal by Tuesday
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
gefs ensemble plumes along with deterministic models show a dry
stretch of weather for the majority if the upcoming week as high
pressure builds over the region.
The next frontal boundary looks to approach the region late
Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will moderate to near or
slightly above normal next week.
Aviation /16z Sunday through Thursday/...
a large area of surface high pressure over southern Quebec will slowly
weaken as it drifts south over the next several days...bringing
improving weather conditions to central PA.
Kipt is up to VFR - with ceiling almost 5kft. Other locations
improving as I type...including out the window where the top of Montana
Nittany was just uncovered. Lljet is weaking per latest rap
sounding and it should be OK to stop mentions of that threat.
Jst/aoo may still have a spot of dz through 18-19z. But will go with
MVFR in general with an improvement to VFR for many sites later
this afternoon. Aoo then jst will be the last to improve.
The improvement should continue tonight. Some fog is possible in
the northern valleys in the morning but some wind may last all night.
Also...total clearing is not a given. Will hold off on fog
mentions with the 18z pkg. As upper winds become northwesterly on
Monday...low/mid clouds may move down from the north/northwest and may keep
fog from forming Tuesday am.
Excellent flying conditions will then persist through the week.
Mon-Thu...mainly VFR. No sig weather.