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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service State College PA
209 PM EDT sun may 3 2015

Synopsis...

High pressure over the southern Appalachians will drift east and
off the Carolina coast tonight. A developing southwesterly flow
will lead to warmer temperatures that will continue through at
least the middle of the upcoming week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...

Heating has caused the development of some fair weather cumulus and
Alto-cu. Otherwise its a fine late Spring day with temperatures
generally in the 70s.

We should lose the clouds with the loss of heating. Lows will drop
back into the middle to upper 40s.



&&

Short term /Monday/...

Monday will feature morning sunshine followed by more diurnally
enhanced afternoon cumulus. Any chance for a shower or thunderstorm will
be across the northwest mountains and limited to late in the afternoon
and evening as a cold front sags southeast from the glakes.

Highs Monday will rise into the middle 70s to lower 80s.

&&

Long term /Monday night through Sunday/...
shortwaves tracking east across southern Canada to north of the
Great Lakes will help push a backdoor-style surface cold front into
central or southern PA by early Tuesday. The front will waver near or
more likely just to the south of the Mason-Dixon line into the
middle of the upcoming week...and will serve as a focus for
clouds and showers mainly along and north of the boundary.

The latest ensemble data shows above normal precipitable waters along the east-west
frontal zone which is usually a good indicator of at least climatology
or better probability of precipitation but due to the north-S model quantitative precipitation forecast differences will utilize
a blend and cap probability of precipitation around the high chance level /40-50 percent/ for
days 3-4.

From the middle to later part of the week...the global numerical
model and ensemble guidance shows low pressure moving east from
the northern High Plains to the western Great Lakes/upper Midwest
by Friday. This should allow the western portion of the east-west frontal
zone to be lift northward through the Ohio Valley while the eastern segment
weakens and wavers just west/south of the PA and Ohio/WV/MD borders.
In general the precipitation pattern should be more Summer-like with weak
forcing under high heights aloft and scattered diurnal shower/isolated thunderstorm
activity near the boundary and perhaps initiating over the western high
terrain. Therefore kept probability of precipitation in the schc to low chance range Wednesday-Friday
with gradual increase into the weekend as the plains frontal
system approaches.

Temperatures should average near to above normal through the period.

&&

Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...

Expect VFR conditions to continue through Monday. A taste of fine
Spring weather.

An approaching cold front may trigger some showers across
north central PA Monday night into Tuesday. The front will likely
slow and create low ceilings/showers into Wednesday. The front may push to
the south on Thursday.

Outlook...

Tuesday...showers/thunderstorms and local reduced conditions.

Wednesday...continued showers and areas of MVFR/IFR.

Thu-Fri...no sig weather.

&&

Ctp watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...la corte
near term...la corte
short term...la corte
long term...Lambert/steinbugl
aviation...la corte

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