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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
129 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE FAR WRN ZONES
GIVEN RECENT/UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODEL DATA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA SHOULD INITIATE
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS IT ENCOUNTERS
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC. CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED IN
QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVELY
AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION OVERNIGHT. WE
ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO WITH LGT/VRB
WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS IN
STORE...WITH VISIBILITIES ALREADY STARTING TO FALL AT BRADFORD AND
ALTOONA. ALTOONA HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF CRASHING TO BELOW MINIMUMS
DUE TO THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN THEY RECEIVED.

REDUCED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE

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