Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
643 am EST Sat Mar 8 2014
a weak and mainly dry cold front will slide southeast from the
Great Lakes and cross Pennsylvania later today and
tonight...followed by dry and seasonably cold northwest flow for
Sunday and Monday. The weather pattern will become more active
Wednesday into Thursday...which could lead to a late winter storm
for the region.
Near term /through tonight/...
only minor near term changes made to temperatures. Otherwise clouds
continue to increase ahead of a weak cold front that will sag
through the area later today and tonight. The front is moving
through a retreating upper ridge...so it will not be a great
precipitation maker...with just scattered light showers of rain or snow
Highs today from near 40 in the north to near 50 in the
south...will be very close to climatology for early March.
The front will settle south of the area later tonight...with any
lingering light showers dwindling as a ridge of high pressure
builds in from the Midwest.
Cooler air behind the front will drop lows back down into the
teens over the far north...but only in the middle to upper 20s from
central areas southward.
Short term /Sunday/...
Sunday will be fair but cooler as the high slides over and off to
our southeast. Temperatures will average some 10 to 15 degree below
normal...something that has become pretty normal this long chilly
Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
the long term is dominated by an increasingly unsettled pattern
for middle week. The flow is forecast to spit rather early in the
period...with a low cutting off somewhere over Texas to northern
old Mexico by early Monday. At that time we are prognosticated to still
be under fast and mainly fair northwest flow on the southern edge of a
deep eastern Canada low.
By midweek differences arise between the European model (ecmwf) and GFS...with the
ec developing a slightly deeper upper trough which results in a
more impressive surface wave moving through WV and Virginia on a track
to the New Jersey coast. The GFS is weaker and flatter and further
south...while the 00z gefs has a stronger low that looks more like
the European model (ecmwf) solution.
If the European model (ecmwf)/gefs solutions end up verifying...a widespread
wintry mix looks like the best outcome as initially marginally
cold air chills and colder air gets dragged down from the north.
If the southern GFS solution is the one that works out...we will
be cooler...but with little precipitation of consequence. Still far too
early to say.
The larger scale pattern in the long term still favors a ridge
aloft over western noam...and a trough in our part of the world.
So if you are hoping for an imminent or extended warm up...it just
doesn't seem to be in the cards any time soon.
Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
some fog across the southeast.
Did tempo fog for an hour across other sites...given
weaker inversion to the west. Warmest temperatures across northwest PA.
Also slowed down clouds and precipitation with cold front today.
A weak front dropping southeast may result in a few rain or snow
showers across the northwest...but not much overall. Lower ceilings will
be possible at least through the evening hours across the northwest.
Downsloping northwest flow results in higher cloud bases in the valleys
to the east.
sun-Tue...no sig weather expected.
Wednesday...rain/snow/reduced ceilings possible.
near term...la corte
short term...la corte
long term...la corte