Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
455 PM EST Friday Nov 28 2014
as high pressure moves east of the area this evening a weak warm
front will bring a chance of light snow or flurries to parts of
the region tonight. Saturday begins a warming trend with
temperatures rising above freezing and remaining so for the rest
of the weekend as milder air filters in. It will remain unsettled
with mainly cloudy skies and a slight chance of showers for much
of the weekend. A cold front will move across the state on Monday
bringing a chance of showers and a brief shot of colder weather on
Tuesday before another warming trend begins for the middle of the
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
weak weather system in fast westerly flow will bring a chance of
light snow or flurries to western and northern County Warning Area overnight.
Light quantitative precipitation forecast and snow accumulations of an inch or less is expected.
Otherwise most of the area will see increasing clouds with
temperatures falling into the 20s.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night/...
heights continue to rise on Saturday with milder air aloft.
Forecast soundings support a moist boundary layer so while
temperatures moderate it will remain cloudy with patchy areas of
drizzle and fog and a few periods of showers. Northern valleys
could still be cold enough to bring a short period of light
freezing rain or drizzle Sat evening. Elsewhere will mention the chance
for showers through much of this period. Temperatures steadily rise
through the period with many areas reporting midnight high
temperatures on Saturday night and again Sunday night.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
broad...fast zonal flow in place at the start of the long term
period is forecast to persist through much of next week. Mild
weather...temperatures will be reaching into the middle 40s to middle 50s by
Sunday and several chance at weak...fast moving weather system
will feature in the period.
A relatively weak trough travels through the zonal flow...will bring a
front across the northeast on Monday...with the GFS and European model (ecmwf)
fairly consistent on their timing. Post frontal winds will bring
cooler temperatures back in for Tuesday as large surface high slides
across S Canada. Another trough will bring a front east for middle
week...but here the GFS/ec are less in sync with their timing at
this point. Large area of surface high pressure is forecast late
in the week...but with increasingly southeasterly flow on the south end
of the high...low clouds and light precipitation may not be out of the
Aviation /22z Friday through Wednesday/...
generally VFR conditions across central Pennsylvania at 21z.
However...still a few pockets of MVFR ceilings likely in and around
the northwest mountains...as kbfd just improved to a scattered
deck at 2800 feet.
Anticipating some warm air advection light snow to develop overnight mainly
across the north...bringing some MVFR restrictions to
kbfd...kjst...kunv and kipt.
Slow progression of warm front and associated warm air advection will keep
unsettled weather...clouds and light precipitation chances across
the region through the weekend. Precipitation will be in the form
of rain showers in central and southern areas...with a potential
light wintry mix across the north.
Cold front will swing through the region early Monday...followed
by high pressure. Generally VFR Post frontal...but chance of
ceiling restrictions in the north and west.
Sat...morning light snow with reduced visibilities and ceilings mainly
north. VFR elsewhere.
Sun...generally VFR...but ceiling/visibility restrictions possible in the
north and west.
Monday...low ceilings/rain showers poss...mainly West Mountains...generally VFR
Wednesday...chance of showers...and possible restrictions in the north
and west...with the approach of another front.