Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
316 PM EDT Monday Jul 28 2014
a storm system will move into New England today. Cooler and less
humid air will move in behind the departing storm...with much of
the upcoming week remaining cooler than normal.
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
breezy conditions bringing much cooler air into the region behind
this mornings potent cold front. Widespread showers have
redeveloped under the strong upper low...and were initially
confined to New York state but are wrapping back around to spread
showery conditions into mainly northwest half of County Warning Area. A few heavier
showers dropping south across northern mountains...but precipitation not as
robust as it was further north and also moving along which is
keeping any water concerns low. Hrrr shows precipitation north of band
over my County Warning Area diminishing pretty quickly this afternoon. Didn/T
totally buy off on that solution...though did keep basic trend of
noticably lowering probability of precipitation through the afternoon. Area most
susceptible to gusty showers through middle/late afternoon will be
the I-80 corridor southward to the Turnpike. Haven/T seen any
lightning in these for quite a while on meager lapse rates...so
didn/T mention. It will be noticably cooler and breezy with
temperatures some 5 to 15 degree below normal.
Tonight will be fair and even a little chilly with much of the
region expected to bottom out around 50 or lower. Southeastern areas will
remain in the middle 50s...but it will still be well below normal.
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night/...
Tuesday will begin a period of minor shortwaves rotating down in
the flow under the anomalously deep/cold upper trough that will
become established over the eastern US. This will mean that we
could see some mainly diurnally driven convection but no
organized precipitation for the most part.
It will remain cooler than normal.
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
the deep trough will linger through the week with individual
impulses moving through the Great Lakes. A weak secondary cold
front is displayed in the guidance for Wednesday which should
help bring about the best chance for overall shower
activity...otherwise daytime heating/instability will likely
represent to most favored times for a few showers through
Then the models show good agreement in retrograding the upper
trough...in the Friday through Sunday timeframe. This allows for a
slight rebound in the western Atlantic ridge and for an increase
in moisture moving up the eastern Seaboard. It will also allow for
a moderation in temperatures with humidity returning to something
more recognizable for the height of Summer.
Aviation /19z Monday through Saturday/...
upper low will continue to feed wrap around showers into PA this
afternoon...with activity decreasing by evening. Biggest impacts
through 21z will be along and south of the I-80 corridor as line
of gusty heavier showers pushes southward...impacting kipt-kunv
and poss kjst-kaoo...before dissipating. Ceiling restrictions will be
confined to these showers and also the northern mountains and Laurel
Highlands as colder air aloft keeps lower clouds in place. Gusty
northwest-west winds will persist through the afternoon areawide as cooler
air works into the region.
Radar scope should be clean overnight...but some lower ceilings will
likely persist in higher elevation terminals /kbfd-kjst/. Light
fog also poss areawide as winds subside and more clearing
Tuesday...no sig weather.
Wednesday...ceiling restrictions poss northwest in scattered showers.
Thu-Fri...isolated showers northwest. No sig weather expected.
long term...la corte/steinbugl