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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1137 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS
WETTER AS THE FRONT WAGGLES NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND
HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS
FCST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTHEAST OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WILL A BRING SUNNY AND WARM DAY TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST 
LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM NEAR 80F ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTH AND WEST...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER SUSQ REGION.

WINDS START TO BACK A BIT LATER IN THE DAY AS THE RIDGE LINE
MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
BIG HUDSON BAY LOW SPINS SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS SHOULD STAY MILD TONIGHT
THANKS TO A SLIGHT SSW WIND. BUT TEMPS COULD DIP BELOW 60F IN THE
NORTHWEST DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS MOVE IN.

POPS ARE LOW FOR THE NIGHT...GIVEN THE WEAK MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND LACK OF CONVERGENCE. BUT THE FRONT WILL BE MAKING QUITE
A BIT OF NOISE UPSTREAM. SPC DAY TWO OUTLOOK NOW PLACES ALL OF CTP
CWA IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR MONDAY. THE DAYTIME/EVENING
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND MODEST CAPES WILL DOUBTLESSLY ALLOW FOR
STORMS...BUT THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE AND SEVERITY ARE IN QUESTION.
WIND PROFILE EXHIBITS A SLIGHTLY CURVED HODOGRAPH AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS WHICH COULD PRODUCE BOWING SEGMENTS. TEMPS
COULD GET TO 90F IN THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE THE STORMS
MOVE DOWN FROM THE NW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE. A DRY DAY OR TWO WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE FRONT WAGGLES MORE NORTH THAN SOUTH. THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS UP
COMING WEEK WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ENHANCING THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WX EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THROUGH
TODAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE WITH SCT TO NMRS TSTMS LKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH LCL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT-NMRS P.M. TSTMS.

TUE-THU...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR VIS IN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. CONFIDENCE
LOW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT

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