Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service State College PA
519 PM EDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure will build in from the Great Lakes overnight. Cool
and dry weather is expected to continue Thursday...as the high
slides east over the area. Clouds will increase Thursday night
and another cold front will bring our next chance for showers on
Friday.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
an extensive blanket of cold air strato-cumulus remains over the area
late this afternoon...as the low level thermal trough moves over the
region. Setting sun...combined with arrival of much drier air on
northwest flow will produce clearing skies this evening. Latest rap
soundings and lamp guidance suggest clear skies across most of the
area by 00z.

The wind will remain fairly gusty into the overnight over central
and eastern areas...but will diminish to light and variable over
the west where the gradient will slacken in response to the high
moving in. While temperatures will bottom out in the frosty levels in our
counties where the growing season has technically begun...thinking
is that the wind will keep frost at Bay. No headlines are planned
at this juncture for The Pockets of frost and normal chilly areas
where lows will drop to near freezing.

Overall lows tonight will be quite chilly for the season...ranging
from the middle to upper 20s across the northern and western mountains...to the middle
30s in the southeast. This will average some 5 to 10 degrees below
normal.

&&

Short term /6 am Thursday morning through 6 PM Thursday/...
the high will build across the area Thursday with abundant
sunshine and low humidities. The main weather element of concern
Thursday looks to be the wind. Given the dry conditions and
expected gusty wind...a fire weather headline looks like a decent
bet.

High temperatures will rebound by a solid 8-12 degrees compared to
today.

&&

Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
not a lot of change.

Still looking at some showers on Friday. Triple point further
south...thus did not add thunder. Temperatures looking cooler now.
Still some chance for a shower early Friday am across western
Warren Colorado.

For Sat...secondary cold front drops southeast.

Went dry for Sunday...flow is from the north...and rather
dry...even with some upper level support...hard to see much
going on.

Left Monday dry. However...did bring showers in faster
now...Monday night...instead of Tuesday. Amounts will be
light...given that main system is well to the south.

Potential is there for a extended period of wet and cool
conditions for Tuesday into late in the weekend.

&&

Aviation /21z Wednesday through Monday/...
Post-frontal cold advection has produced an extensive
stratocumulus deck with MVFR and showers of rain and snow over
the central and western terminals. Ceilings will lift and mix out
slowly this afternoon into the evening with all sites expected to
be VFR by middle to late afternoon. Expect bfd/jst to improve
slowest.

The wind has been gusting 20-30kt and will continue into the
evening...before diminishing overnight.

Thursday will be nearly perfect with bright sunshine but with a
lingering gusty wind in the 15-20kt range over eastern areas. The
wind will diminish in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Fri-Sat...MVFR with widespread rain showers.

Sun-Mon...VFR. No sig weather.

&&

Fire weather...
a Fire Weather Watch continues for about the eastern third of the
County Warning Area for late Thursday morning through early Thursday
evening...since wind gusts will still be moderately strong
there...and fine fuel moisture and rhs will continue to decrease.

&&

Ctp watches/warnings/advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for paz051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
Synopsis...la corte
near term...Fitzgerald/la corte
short term...la corte
long term...Martin
aviation...la corte
fire weather...