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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
644 PM CDT sun may 3 2015

Discussion...updated for 00z aviation.

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Aviation...
dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s combined with generally dry middle
to upper levels will result in MVFR conditions overnight. Winds
are expected to stay elevated overnight for the most part...which
will keep the fog threat down and MVFR ceilings as the primary
reason for MVFR conditions. By the time daytime heating
resumes...ceilings will come back up signaling a return to VFR
conditions. Have included a mention of vicinity showers for klrd
due to a slightly greater moisture depth relative to the other
sites.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 403 PM CDT sun may 3 2015/

Short term (tonight through Monday night)...surface low
positioned over West Texas/northern Mexico has kept a tight
pressure gradient and breezy onshore flow across the region today.
A middle/upper level trough will dig into the Desert Southwest during
the short term periods. Tonight there is a slight chance for
convection to develop to the northwest of the area and move into
the extreme western portions of the County Warning Area. The higher moisture axis
will be positioned over the western half of south Texas Monday and
Monday night. Although better dynamics are further north of the
region...could see some isolated to scattered convection develop
as this upper trough digs closer. However...with not much in the
way of forcing...cap may hold and inhibit much of any development. Best
chances for development will be across the western zones where
higher moisture lies. Monday evening will be dry...with then
slight chances of storms pushing into the extreme northwest zones
again...and a few streamer showers moving into the coastal Bend
late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

While winds to relax some overnight...will not see as much mixing
out and cooling with higher moisture and cloud cover over the
region. Tonight and tomorrow will be near 5 to 8 degrees warmer
than last night...with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Monday
will be similarly breezy with highs in the low to middle 80s.

Long term (tuesday through sunday)...the middle level low over New
Mexico Tuesday will be lifting northeast into the Central High
plains on Wednesday. Then a stronger middle level low forming over
the Pacific northwest Wednesday will dig south into the Great Basin
Friday. This stronger system will move east-northeast across the
central rockies over the weekend. There will be a surface trough of
low pressure over the southern High Plains during this whole
time period maintaining a moderate onshore flow. Deeper moisture
axis will remain over the brush country through the week into the
weekend. Timing of weaker short wave troughs moving out of Mexico
will be the forecast dilemma with regards to probability of precipitation. Models also show
some drier air in the low levels over the western Gulf of Mexico that
could limit rain chances. Models still indicating the possibility of
a weak short wave trough and stronger upper level jet moving out of
northeast Mexico into the region Tuesday and again Thursday. Kept
low end chance probability of precipitation for the brush country to Victoria area for
both of these days with lower rain chances toward the coast. Low
end chance probability of precipitation remained only for the far west counties Friday as
the upper flow will be anticyclonically curved over the region with
main threat during period of storms moving out of Mexico. Rain
chances may increase toward the weekend as the upper jet axis
shifts south toward the region with the upper low moving through
The Rockies...but confidence not strong enough to go beyond slight
chance probability of precipitation for the area at this time.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 70 82 71 84 74 / 10 10 10 20 20
Victoria 66 82 67 83 71 / 10 10 10 30 30
Laredo 71 86 70 87 72 / 20 30 10 30 30
Alice 68 85 71 85 72 / 10 20 10 30 20
Rockport 72 81 72 82 74 / 10 10 20 20 20
Cotulla 68 84 69 85 71 / 20 30 20 30 30
Kingsville 68 83 71 85 73 / 10 10 10 20 20
Navy corpus 72 80 72 81 74 / 10 10 20 20 20

&&

Crp watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.

&&

$$

Ib/90...aviation

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