Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
403 am CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014

Short term (today through thursday)...main forecast issues in the
short term will be chances for showers and thunderstorms. Moisture
has begun to return to south Texas...which is evident in the 2.00
inch precipitable water on the 00z crp sounding. Early morning radar imagery shows
showers and thunderstorms over the western Gulf associated with a
weak area of low pressure. This system is encountering a good bit of
wind shear so chances for tropical development will remain low. the low approach south Texas...rain chances will
increase today into tomorrow. For today...the better chances of
showers and storms will remain over the middle Texas coastal water
and coastal Bend region. Probability of precipitation range from non-mentionable over the
far western zones to likely probability of precipitation over the offshore Gulf waters. High
temperatures today will reach triple digits out west where no rain is
expected...with temperatures set back a degree or two into the middle 90s
over the coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads where rain chances are
higher. Similar rain chances are expected again on Thursday with
approach of the tropical wave. With deep tropical moisture in
place over the area...threat for locally heavy rainfall will exist
both today and tomorrow.


Long term (thursday night through tuesday)...inverted trough
continues to linger along the south Texas coast early in the
extended...transitioning into a broad area of low pressure into the
weekend. With Bountiful moisture remaining and generally little to
no capping...isolated to scattered convection is expected to
continue heading into the weekend. Limited moisture heading into the
Sunday/Monday time frame will keep rain chances low mainly confined
across the Gulf waters and along the immediate sea breeze. Models
forecast a tropical wave to move across the Caribbean into the southern
Gulf through the weekend...reaching the western Gulf by Tuesday. It
is too early to determine any further development of this system if
any. However with moisture expected to increase by middle week next
week...have introduced a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the eastern County Warning Area. As for temperatures...should expect to see a
warming trend through the weekend into early next week...with heat
index values beginning to reach to 105-109f across much of south


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 95 78 91 78 91 / 40 30 40 30 40
Victoria 95 77 92 76 92 / 50 30 40 30 40
Laredo 102 80 100 80 99 / 10 10 20 20 20
Alice 98 76 95 77 94 / 30 20 40 30 30
Rockport 91 80 88 80 88 / 50 40 40 30 40
Cotulla 100 76 100 76 98 / 10 10 20 20 20
Kingsville 97 76 94 77 93 / 40 20 40 30 40
Navy corpus 90 81 87 80 88 / 50 40 40 30 40


Crp watches/warnings/advisories...



Tb/78...short term
cb/85...long term

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations