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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
650 PM CDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Discussion...see aviation section for 00z tafs.


Aviation...VFR conditions will continue through the overnight
hours with generally clear skies and light winds. Enough boundary
layer moisture will be over the Victoria Crossroads region for
patchy fog to form around daybreak. MVFR visibilities will be possible
with the fog. Some cirrus will move in from the north on Saturday
with VFR conditions for Saturday.


Previous discussion... /issued 316 PM CDT Friday Aug 28 2015/

Short term (tonight through Saturday night) upper level high
pressure system remains ctrd over West Texas while low pressure continues over
the north Gulf of mex. This is resulting in a NE flow aloft over east and S
Texas. Models forecast limited middle/upper level moisture to continue to move
S to SW across the eastern portions of the County Warning Area through Sat. This will
lead to a few/scattered middle/upper level clouds through Sat...but otherwise
remaining fairly dry with surface dewpoints remaining in the middle to
upper 60s. The lower dewpoints/drier airmass will lead to another
relatively cool night with slightly below normal temperatures tonight and
Saturday. By Sat night the upper pattern shifts west placing the upper
low over the region. As a result...the low level flow strengthens
slightly from the southeast and begins to advect low level moisture into S
Texas. Dewpoints are forecasted to increase back into the upper 60s to low
70s across the eastern County Warning Area. Could see patchy fog late Sat night into
early Sun morning across interior portions of S Texas. Could see very
light fog tonight as well...but visibilities will remain at or above 5sm thus will
not mention in the zones for tonight but will mention for Sat night
as fog has a better chance of developing with visibilities of 3sm or higher.

Long term (sunday through friday)...the GFS/European model (ecmwf) deterministic
develop an upper low over the region at the beginning of the period.
To account for variations in trough axis position...will rely on the
GFS ensemble mean which maintains the axis over the coast Sunday
through Tuesday before moving the system eastward. GFS deterministic
depicts only a modest increase in moisture per precipitable water field. Owing to
foregoing moisture/upper forcing...and GFS deterministic lifted index
field...anticpate isolated/scattered convection Monday/Tuesday over the eastern
cwa/msa. Will reduce convection over County Warning Area to isolated Wednesday-Friday to
account for eastward movement of the upper trough axis. Anticipate maximum
heat index values of 105f or less. Wavewatch solution maintains low
swell heights drg the period.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 69 93 74 92 76 / 0 0 10 10 20
Victoria 66 93 67 91 72 / 0 0 0 10 10
Laredo 71 99 74 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
Alice 66 95 69 96 72 / 0 0 0 10 10
Rockport 73 91 78 89 80 / 0 0 10 10 20
Cotulla 68 98 72 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 10
Kingsville 67 96 70 95 74 / 0 0 10 10 10
Navy corpus 74 89 78 90 80 / 0 0 10 10 20


Crp watches/warnings/advisories...




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