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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
309 PM CDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Short term (tonight through Saturday night)...have finally
developed some isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms across the area this afternoon. Hrrr model handling
this reasonably well...ends most of the activity by about 02z. Have
20 probability of precipitation area wide for the evening...with 10s and 20s after
midnight. Global models continue to struggle with quantitative precipitation forecast...GFS
definitely still too aggressive. Something of a mix between NAM
and European model (ecmwf) appears the best. That said...both of those models are
quiet on Saturday...except in marine area. Have cut probability of precipitation for
inland areas in the morning...but will leave a 20 pop area wide
for the afternoon as high moisture air will still be in place and
could get some showers to pop up once again.

With no major pattern chance...expect temperatures tomorrow to
approach the same values we/re seeing today as we should keep a
light and variable wind...not the onshore flow we are used to this
time of year. Have highs mainly in the upper 90s to around 100
across the area. Heat index values will be at least between 100
and 105...but could be 105 to 109 if we don't mix out the near
surface moisture.

&&

Long term (sunday through friday)...extended forecast looks
relatively straightforward with upper ridge axis repositioning
itself over the Southern Plains and surface Lee development
generating typical onshore flow regime across the coastal Bend. Any
lingering precipitation chances with a decaying boundary on Sunday
should be confined to offshore zones...then a dry forecast through
the week.

Temperatures will remain a category or so above normal through the
period. Heat index levels will flirt with Special Weather Statement criteria on a daily
basis...though actual advisory criteria heat appears unlikely.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 76 98 76 96 77 / 20 20 10 10 10
Victoria 74 100 74 98 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
Laredo 78 103 78 103 78 / 20 20 10 10 0
Alice 75 100 75 98 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
Rockport 76 95 79 91 80 / 20 20 10 10 10
Cotulla 77 102 75 103 76 / 20 20 10 0 0
Kingsville 75 99 76 98 76 / 20 20 10 10 10
Navy corpus 78 92 79 90 80 / 20 20 10 10 10

&&

Crp watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.

&&

$$

Pz/83...short term
jv/71...long term

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