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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
646 am CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

Discussion...note aviation discussion below.

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Aviation...aviation...a combination of MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibilities early this morning will transition to VFR. Brief MVFR
conditions may occur drg isolated showers/thunderstorms mainly north
of Highway 181 during the afternoon/early evening. Again generally light
wind drg the morning through early this afternoon. Moderate onshore
flow expected late afternoon/early evening. Conditions will transition
from VFR this evening to MVFR drg the 09-13z Thursday period.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 358 am CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014/

Short term (today through thursday)...concur with the GFS that a
TUTT low will enter the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by this evening.
Anticipate that increasing moisture over the County Warning Area/msa from the
northeast (gfs/NAM deterministic) along with instability (nam
deterministic) will contribute to isolated convection over the eastern
County Warning Area/western msa mainly this afternoon/early evening. Expect maximum heat index
values today 105f or less over the County Warning Area. Noctural isolated convection
expected overnight over the msa. The GFS shears apart the TUTT low
as it enters the County Warning Area Thursday afternoon. Thus unclear of the extent to
which associated subsidence will affect the cwa/msa. Will maintain
isolated convection for the eastern County Warning Area/msa Thursday.

Long term (thursday night through tuesday)...models return to
unfavorable positioning of the upper disturbance along the Texas
coast as it moves westward early in the extended. Moisture remains
modest with precipitable water values from 1.5 to 1.6 inches across the eastern
County Warning Area. 850 mb and 700 mb temperatures remain slightly warmed keeping a weak cap
across the region. All this said...as moisture remains on the low
end for this time of year for shower development...have removed probability of precipitation
Friday. Upper ridge builds in through the weekend with temperatures
across south Texas to remain very warm in the middle to upper 90s
across most locations...and from 100-105 across the western brush
country. Models continue to hint at a late season front early next
week although with weak push from the midlevels...will maintain
frontal boundary north of the area leaving probability of precipitation out of the forecast
through early next week for now.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 94 76 95 75 97 / 20 10 20 10 10
Victoria 94 75 96 75 97 / 20 20 20 10 10
Laredo 102 79 102 79 105 / 10 10 10 10 10
Alice 97 76 97 74 101 / 20 20 20 10 10
Rockport 89 79 91 79 92 / 20 10 20 10 10
Cotulla 100 76 102 75 102 / 10 10 10 10 10
Kingsville 95 76 96 75 99 / 20 20 20 10 10
Navy corpus 88 79 89 80 92 / 20 10 20 10 10

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Crp watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.

&&

$$

Wc/87...aviation

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