Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
648 am CDT sun may 24 2015
Discussion...updated for 12z tafs.
Aviation...thunderstorms have exited south Texas...thus have
taken most rain chances out of the taf forecast. Could see
isolated to scattered thunderstorms redevelop this afternoon
mainly near the ali or crp terminals. Have just vc groups in for
now...as this activity should be limited. Will continue breezy
conditions for eastern locations today. Expect MVFR ceilings to return
Previous discussion... /issued 356 am CDT sun may 24 2015/
Short term (today through monday)...morning convection now just
along the coast with weakening mesoscale vortex just north of the
forecast area. Should lift the precipitation out of the region in the
next couple of hours. The question then turns to what kind of
recovery the atmosphere can do during the day. Another shortwave
is prognosticated to move through the area this afternoon...but morning
convection has probably cut chances that we/ll see another round
of thunderstorms with this wave. Could see some scattered
convection in the coastal Bend where there will be more time to
recover from this morning...but not expecting any widespread
organized activity. Most mesoscale models remain pretty much dry this
afternoon. Another shortwave is then set for tomorrow...but as the
parent upper low lifts northward today and tonight it will pull
that shortwave a bit farther away from south Texas. Think we could
see another round of thunderstorms with this...but best chance
will be in northern zones.
Temperatures continue to be a big challenge as well...especially
today. Have increased temperatures out west...as dry line may move into
these zones this afternoon decreasing moisture and allowing temperatures
to warm into the 90s. Have lower to middle 80s east...but if clouds
do break up and rain doesnt redevelop...could get warmer than
Will continue breezy conditions today...especially east with low level jet
continuing. Have extended Small Craft Advisory through Monday
morning. Winds will be marginal this afternoon...but seas will
continue to increase and should remain at Small Craft Advisory
levels through the afternoon. Winds then increase once again
Long term (monday night through saturday)...the GFS/NAM/ECMWF forecast
an upper disturbance to move across the County Warning Area/msa Monday night/Tuesday.
Afterward...the foregoing models forecast the upper pattern to be
characterized by zonal flow over the central Continental U.S. In advance of
another upper disturbance. This system is forecasted to move slowly eastward
and provide synoptic scale lift over the County Warning Area/msa Thursday night/
Friday. Further...the GFS mslp ensemble mean depict a quasi-
stationary approximately east-west boundary/trough across the County Warning Area/msa drg the
period. Thus...increasing subsidence/drying Tuesday will decrease
chance for convective activity by Tuesday evening. The GFS
deterministic forecast precipitable water values to decrease to near normal by
Wednesday. Anticipate that the combination of the boundary/near normal
precipitable water values will contribute to isolated convection over the County Warning Area/msa
Wednesday/Thursday. Expect that increasing synoptic scale lift
Thursday night/Friday will contribute to scattered convection.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 85 77 84 77 84 / 50 50 70 50 40
Victoria 83 74 83 73 83 / 60 60 80 60 40
Laredo 90 74 91 75 90 / 20 30 40 40 30
Alice 87 75 86 76 86 / 40 40 70 50 30
Rockport 82 78 82 77 82 / 60 60 70 60 40
Cotulla 90 73 88 72 88 / 20 30 70 40 30
Kingsville 87 77 86 77 85 / 40 50 70 50 40
Navy corpus 83 79 83 78 82 / 60 60 70 50 40
Texas...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for the following
zones: Aransas...Bee...Calhoun...Goliad...Jim Wells...
Kleberg...Live Oak...Nueces...Refugio...San Patricio...
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for the following
zones: bays and waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
bays and waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...
coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 nm...
coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
out 20 nm...waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20
to 60 nm...waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
Channel from 20 to 60 nm.