Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
1223 PM CDT Friday Aug 28 2015
Discussion...see aviation discussion below for the 18z tafs.
Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail through much of the taf
period. Light patchy fog...producing MVFR visibility...will briefly be
possible early Sat morning from ali to vct. Winds will remain
light with a S to southeast component this afternoon and varying from S
to west overnight.
Previous discussion... /issued 1016 am CDT Friday Aug 28 2015/
Discussion...the 12z crp sounding continues to show a dry airmass
in place with precipitable water of only 1 inch. The dry airmass led to
unseasonably cool early morning temperatures. Crp broke a record low this
morning with 68 degrees. The previous record was 70 last set in
2010. Overall forecast looks on track with no changes at this time.
Previous discussion... /issued 610 am CDT Friday Aug 28 2015/
Discussion...update for 12z aviation.
Aviation...VFR next 24 hours. Only few cumulus and scattered cirrus through the taf
period as dry airmass remains in place. Light/vrb wind this morning
/more wswrly at kcrp and kali/ will become eserly 10 to 15 kts
this afternoon/evening as seabreeze pushes inland...and then light/vrb
Previous discussion... /issued 328 am CDT Friday Aug 28 2015/
Short term (today through saturday)...unseasonably dry airmass
remains in place across the County Warning Area with precipitable waters nearly two Standard
deviations below normal for this time of year. Result will be
mainly clear skies through the short term period /aside from some
passing cirrus/ and lower humidity/dewpoints. Little change in
thermal profile from yesterday...and thus maximum temperatures today should
be similar to Thursday/S values. Light and variable surface wind
/more SW this morning across coastal plains until landbreeze
dissipates/ until afternoon when the seabreeze pushes inland.
Similar conditions on Saturday with little change to synoptic
Long term (saturday night through thursday)...moisture begins to
increase at the end of the weekend with the upper trough nearby.
However...main part of trough will remain east of the area through
most of the extended period...which would put the crp County warning forecast area on the
subsident side of guidance. European model (ecmwf) continues to be rather wet but not
as wet as the 27/12z run. Still...models are keeping the highest
probability of precipitation over the Gulf waters and eastern areas. Any rain on Sunday
should be well offshore...but then rain chances increase a bit
although think superblend probability of precipitation are on the high side (largely in part
to the European model (ecmwf) being so wet). Thus...will continue to undercut
superblend probability of precipitation by about 10 percent Monday through Thursday...with
no rain mentioned out west (where rain could be used the most...
although southern coastal areas have not seen too much either).
Since forecast will undercut superblend probability of precipitation...will nudge daytime
highs up a bit (degree or two)...but especially along the coast
where model was giving upper 80s to kngp and krkp which are too
cool. Overall...a few minor adjustments from the superblend lows.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 94 68 93 73 94 / 0 0 0 10 10
Victoria 94 67 93 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 10
Laredo 100 72 99 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alice 97 66 97 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 10
Rockport 93 74 91 75 92 / 0 0 0 10 10
Cotulla 99 69 98 72 99 / 0 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 96 66 96 70 98 / 0 0 0 10 10
Navy corpus 90 73 89 77 91 / 0 0 0 10 10