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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
638 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015

Discussion...see 00z aviation discussion.

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Aviation...main issue will be the fog potential after 06z and
before 12z. With boundary layer winds 10 knots or less over the
eastern terminals...am going to go pessimistic on the kali and
kvct terminals...mentioning 1/2sm (tempos) before 14z...with 1-2sm
overall. Brief MVFR br possible at kcrp...with no fog expected at
klrd (think dew point depressions too high). After that...could
have brief MVFR ceilings before 16z at eastern terminals...but will
not forecast as expect generally VFR. Winds will be light south or
southwest...then becoming more southeast either late in the
morning or early in the afternoon but overall not very high or
gusty at least for south Texas standards.

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Previous discussion... /issued 243 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015/

Short term...mid/upr level ridge which has dominated our weather
this past month will pivot westward toward the southern rockies in the next
48 hours allowing a little deeper moisture to nose into the coastal
Bend. Precipitable waters are prognosticated to climb to 1.9" Thursday and 2.2" Friday with a
decreasing cap. Thus will maintain slight chance/chance probability of precipitation for
Thu/Fri. Due to the increased moisture the diurnal temperature range will
be lessened by a few degrees. Maintained mention of patchy fog for
overnight tonight/early Thursday per NAM/GFS forecast soundings indicating
light onshore winds and dry air above surface shallow boundary
layer/capping inversion.

Long term (friday through wednesday)...the upper level ridge taking
stronghold for the past several days slowly lifts to the north-
northwest allowing for an upper trough to push a frontal boundary
through the eastern zones...with the modified tailed extent
stretching into the northwestern Gulf. This will bring an increase
in moisture with precipitable waters measuring over 2 inches. Moisture increase is
more noticed in the midlevels...so am expecting an increase in cloud
coverage spreading from east to west...but the weak boundary may be
enough forcing for showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to
exist...primarily across the eastern half of the County Warning Area. The main
caveat to all of this is the layer of warm temperatures at 850 mb. The
lingering boundary should keep rain chances through
Saturday...although the best forcing will likely be across the
southern zones as the upper ridge begins to slowly push back to the
south...shunting the moisture out of the region. Dry and hot
conditions will resume for early next week.

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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 77 96 77 96 77 / 10 10 10 20 20
Victoria 75 98 76 96 76 / 10 10 20 30 20
Laredo 78 102 79 103 79 / 0 10 10 10 10
Alice 75 99 76 98 76 / 0 10 10 20 20
Rockport 79 92 80 90 80 / 10 10 10 20 20
Cotulla 76 101 77 101 78 / 0 0 10 10 20
Kingsville 76 97 76 98 76 / 10 10 10 20 20
Navy corpus 79 90 80 91 80 / 10 10 10 20 20

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Crp watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.

&&

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Gw/86...aviation

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