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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
543 am CST Monday Nov 30 2015

Discussion...see 12z aviation discussion.


Aviation...based on observation trends and model soundings/time going to be more optimistic in having VFR conditions
later today over the terminals...with VFR ceilings at or above 16z all but
kvct (between 18z-21z) isentropic upglide ends.
a coastal trough develops overnight and toward the end of the
terminal forecast period/12z...isentropic upglide may be
sufficient to bring at least MVFR ceilings over the area after sunset
(and have forecast so...see forecast for timing). This seems to
go well with the model sounding data and persistence (as well as
pattern recognition). Winds will be light north or northwest
through most of the terminal forecast. Have put in some -dz/br
with lower visibilities late in the forecast (but not at klrd) as
isentropic upglide begins to make an impact.


Previous discussion... /issued 311 am CST Monday Nov 30 2015/

Short term (today through tuesday)...main issue will be the rain
chances especially late tonight and Tuesday...with surface forcing
and upper support getting a bit better through the next three
periods. Crp County warning forecast area will be on the southern periphery of an upper
trough...which will help usher in another boundary and/or coastal
trough on Tuesday. Moisture will be more than sufficient near the
coast to provide for a chance for some rain late tonight and
Tuesday...with the most measurable rainfall over the southeast where
the surface forcing will be maximized and moisture is best (qpf
values will not be very high...generally less than 1/10 inch).

Before late tonight and Tuesday...looks like some drizzle today with
some patchy light rain and drizzle tonight (at least for the evening
hours). Expect for the southeastern portions of the County warning forecast area...think the
rain chances may be a bit high (more patchy light rain than areas of
light rain)...but will go another cycle with these probability of precipitation and let the
day shift decide whether to lower rain chances (ecmwf is going
higher probability of precipitation overnight but think it may be over-doing it over the
central/northern areas as the higher probability of precipitation may be more due to its
copious moisture rather than the forcing/lift). We shall see...but
let the rain chances ride for tonight as-is.

Concerning temperatures...will remain on the cooler side of guidance
again today (closer to the NAM-MOS numbers)...but this will have to
be watched as the thick low clouds will be less thick and not as low
as they were yesterday. Not much of a temperature change for
tonight...with temperatures and dew points riding fairly close to
each other overnight and thus temperatures will likely be rather
steady by morning. Again closer to the NAM on Tuesday for
temperatures as it has been doing better with this cooler air mass
as of late...with coolest high temperatures Tuesday near the coast
where the rain and clouds will be most prevalent (may even be a bit
too warm).

Marine (today through tuesday)...winds and seas will stay below Small Craft Advisory
but could become scec (or close to it) on Tuesday with the
development of the coastal trough. Some drizzle today mainly near
the coast...then rain chances get a bit better tonight and Tuesday
with areas of light rain due to trough/surface forcing and some weak
upper support.

Long term (tuesday night through sunday)...the moisture depth will
increase to the 750 mb level after midnight Tuesday into Wednesday
morning in advance of an approaching shortwave. More than adequate
forcing mostly from frontogenesis and isentropic upglide will peak
during this same time-frame. This will set the stage for a wet
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning across most of the
County Warning Area...especially the coastal Bend and adjacent waters. Will go as
high as likely probability of precipitation for these areas with chance probability of precipitation for most other
areas. Will end the rain chances a bit sooner by Wednesday afternoon/early evening
as a surge of high pressure pushes drier air into the County Warning Area and as
downward forcing increases throughout the day. Drier and cooler
than normal temperatures will then prevail through the end of the workweek.
Still not cold enough to warrant freeze warnings. Return moisture
and associated clouds will advect back into the County Warning Area by Saturday as
onshore winds once again develop. Temperatures will of course moderate by
the weekend as the onshore flow persists.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 58 54 61 53 59 / 10 30 40 50 60
Victoria 58 50 60 49 59 / 10 30 30 50 40
Laredo 63 56 63 51 60 / 10 10 20 30 30
Alice 60 53 62 51 59 / 10 30 40 50 40
Rockport 59 54 61 52 60 / 10 30 40 50 50
Cotulla 63 52 62 48 61 / 10 20 30 30 20
Kingsville 60 54 62 52 59 / 10 30 40 50 60
Navy corpus 61 56 62 55 60 / 10 30 40 50 60


Crp watches/warnings/advisories...




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