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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
536 PM CST Friday Dec 19 2014

Discussion...updated for 00z aviation.


Aviation...low clouds clearing out west...but holding on in the
east makes for a complicated taf...especially for ali as clearing
line currently very near this terminal. Think ali site will
partially clear this evening. Whether it stays clear or the clouds
back into to area again is the question. Have tried to cover this
with tempo groups early. Lrd site should be VFR through most of
the night...going MVFR early morning. Could also see some light
fog at lrd and ali sites. Vct/crp should remain MVFR to IFR during
the night as low clouds hold over the region. Think all sites
should go MVFR late morning or early afternoon on Saturday with
scattered low clouds and an overcast middle level deck.


Previous discussion... /issued 302 PM CST Friday Dec 19 2014/

Short term (tonight through Saturday night)...a cold front has
pushed off the coast today taking the precipitation with it. Isolated -shra's
currently over the coastal waters are expected to exit the area by
late afternoon or early evening. Some erosion of clouds has taken
place across the middle sections of S Texas...however low stratus is
expected to prevail overnight. Models forecast light patchy fog
overnight...but the forecast soundings show a shallow relatively drier
near surface layer. If fog does develop...visibilities are expected to be at
least 5sm or better...thus will not mention in the forecast. Winds
across the coastal waters are expected to be around 20kt through
tonight with seas building to around 7ft. Have gone with a Small
Craft Advisory starting this afternoon and continuing through 15z
Sat morning. Winds may be below advisory by around 12z but seas
are expected to be slower to subside. Models keep clouds in the
forecast through Sat with guidance suggesting overcast conditions. Went with
pc across the west to mc skies across the east. The clouds will likely
keep the lows from bottoming out tonight and will keep highs on
Sat from getting out of the 50s across the northern County Warning Area. By Sat
night...low level moisture begins to return with overrunning
conditions developing initially across coastal waters Sat evening
then spreading inland overnight. Despite the increasing moisture
and slight warming just above the surface...cold air advection at the surface will
continue through the short term leading to similar to slightly cooler
Minnesota temperatures Sat night.

Long term (sunday through friday)...overall not much change is
expected for the extended forecast. A mostly dry pattern with mostly
above normal temperatures are expected for most of next weak. Weak isentropic
lift and an approaching shortwave trough axis may produce some light rain
on Sunday across mainly the coastal areas and adjacent waters. By
Sunday evening...the shortwave trough axis will have passed east and usher
in drier more subsident air across the County Warning Area. With a dry airmass in
place and S/SW flow on Monday...afternoon highs should reach the 70s in
most areas. The next cold front is still expected Tuesday morning.
Breezy/Small Craft Advisory conditions appear likely behind this front. Surface and upper
level ridging will remain in firm control through Christmas evening...
keeping a very dry airmass in place. Warmer temperatures are expected on
Christmas day and again on next Friday as southerly flow prevails
due to developing low pressure across the Central Plains.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 50 60 50 63 51 / 10 10 20 30 10
Victoria 48 59 45 62 47 / 10 10 10 10 10
Laredo 50 62 50 66 51 / 10 10 10 20 10
Alice 50 60 49 64 50 / 10 10 20 20 10
Rockport 50 58 51 62 53 / 10 10 20 30 10
Cotulla 46 60 45 64 48 / 10 10 10 10 10
Kingsville 51 60 50 64 51 / 10 10 20 30 10
Navy corpus 54 60 52 62 55 / 10 10 20 30 10


Crp watches/warnings/advisories...
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 am CST Saturday for the following
zones: coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
20 nm...coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
Channel out 20 nm...waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
from 20 to 60 nm...waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 nm.




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