Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
642 am CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014
Discussion...see aviation below for 12z taf update.
Aviation...showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of kcrp are
expected to increase in coverage later this morning and into the
afternoon...and be in the vicinity of all taf sites. Ceilings
should generally remain VFR...but may briefly drop to MVFR
criteria with any storms that are in the vicinity of terminals.
Additionally...patchy br at kvct this morning will reduce visibilities to
mvf criteria at times through the early morning. Southeast winds
will increase to moderate levels this afternoon before becoming
light again this evening. Greatest threat of convection diminishes
this evening...and have thunderstorms in the vicinity removed from tafs during the early
evening. There is a slight chance for some lingering showers and
storms over the Rio Grande plains and coastal Bend tonight...but
confidence in coverage is not high for this time...so will keep
them out of tafs for now.
Previous discussion... /issued 431 am CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014/
Short term (today through friday)...scattered convection
currently moving north over the southern coastal waters will push
into the region this morning. Models indicate TUTT low that has
been meandering over south Texas moving west of the region. The
500mb low centered over northeast Mexico will send a disturbance north
into south Texas...as well as continue in ushering deep moisture into
the region this morning. Expect scattered convection to push in from the
south today. Although moisture decreases across the region by
Friday...still may see some diurnal/sea breeze convection
develop...and will carry slight chance probability of precipitation for Friday.
Temperatures today will be slightly cooler...owing to increased
moisture...cloud coverage...and rain over the area. Southeast flow
will be light to moderate during the afternoons...and becoming
light overnight/early morning.
Long term (friday night through wednesday)...upper disturbance will
be moving northwest away from the region at the beginning of the
period. There may be some lingering convection over the Rio Grande
plains early Friday evening before diminishing/shifting to the northwest.
Chances for precipitation will then decrease for the weekend into early
next week as upper level ridging builds over south Texas. Warm
conditions will continue during this period with high temperatures
in the lower 100s over the Rio Grande plains to Lower/Middle 90s over
the Victoria Crossroads. Towards the end of the forecast period... a
cold front will move into central and south central Texas. While
better chances of convection will occur north and northeast of the
area on Wednesday...showers and thunderstorms could approach the
northeast sections. Will keep the forecast dry for now though.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 92 76 95 76 93 / 40 10 20 10 10
Victoria 93 74 95 74 94 / 30 10 20 10 10
Laredo 94 78 97 76 99 / 40 20 20 20 10
Alice 93 75 96 74 96 / 40 10 20 10 10
Rockport 91 79 90 79 88 / 30 20 20 10 10
Cotulla 96 76 98 74 99 / 30 20 20 20 10
Kingsville 93 77 96 75 96 / 40 10 20 10 10
Navy corpus 91 80 91 80 88 / 40 10 20 10 10