Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
223 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Short term (tonight through Sunday night)...the subtropical ridge
axis will remain in firm control of our weather through the short term.
Persistent subsidence and very limited moisture will keep probability of precipitation close
to none. Limited cloud cover and warm boundary layer temperatures will continue
the above normal temperatures. Once again heat indices across the southern
portions of the coastal Bend will hover near heat advisory criteria for
Sunday afternoon/early evening. So another heat advisory may once again be
needed for Sunday.
Long term (monday through saturday)...extended begins with high
pressure firmly in place at the surface and aloft. Precipitation
chances are none for the first half of next week with above normal
temperatures and heat indices.
Models begin to diverge for the middle to end of next week. General
idea is that the upper ridge is nudged westward as yet another
unseasonable upper trough develops over the Great Lakes and pushes
south. Still very unclear as to whether the feature itself or its
surface reflection will affect US directly. GFS essentially lines up
the main moisture axis from the mouth of the Sabine back to the
Panhandle...which would keep US hot and dry through Friday morning
before weak impulses could create isolated convection over the
northeast counties and offshore Friday and Saturday. European model (ecmwf) is more
aggressive with boundary positioning but moisture fields are
weaker...overall resulting in slightly higher but more variable rain
chances. At this distance slight chance mentions over the east
appear warranted...extending slightly further westward on Saturday.
Temperatures remain at or above normal through the period...with
peak temperatures likely Tuesday and Wednesday before increasing
cloud cover shaves a few degrees off highs toward the end of the
Marine...the thermal and pressure gradients should be sufficient
to maintain marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions this evening
across the bays and nearshore waters from Port Aransas southward. The
gradient should be slightly weaker on Sunday and so mainly caution
criteria is expected. A few rogue streamer rain showers will be possible
through the weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 78 97 77 96 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
Victoria 77 98 76 98 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
Laredo 80 105 78 103 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
Alice 76 101 75 100 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
Rockport 81 93 79 91 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
Cotulla 77 102 75 100 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
Kingsville 77 100 76 98 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
Navy corpus 82 93 80 93 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
Texas...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Jim Wells...Kleberg...Nueces...Refugio...San
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: bays and waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 am CDT Sunday
for the following zones: coastal waters from Baffin Bay to
Port Aransas out 20 nm.