Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
340 PM CDT Wednesday Mar 12 2014
Short term (tonight through Thursday night)...concur with the
GFS deterministic output that the upper system over the Midwest/
Mississippi Valley will move eastward while another upper disturbance
enters the Pacific northwest then moves eastward across the northern plains.
Further...a third system is forecasted to approach the southwestern Continental U.S..
this pattern would contribute to increasing onshore flow Thursday
and Thursday night. In the interim...wind will decrease from west to
east over the County Warning Area/msa overnight. Will allow the wind advsy to expire
by 22z today based on trends/deterministic output. Light surface
wind/dry atmospheric column will contribute to significant
radiational cooling/cold conditions tonight yet the NAM 20kt 925mb
wind/increasing high clouds serve as caveats. Forecast lows around
35-45f over the County Warning Area a reasonable compromise. Similar or slightly
warmer temperatures over the County Warning Area Thursday. Yet significantly warmer min
temperatures Thursday night owing to airmass modification.
Marine...frequent gusts near gale over the offshore waters. Small Craft Advisory
conditions continue over the bays/nearshore waters. Will allow Small Craft Advisory
over the bays/Gale Warning over the offshore waters to expire by
00z Thursday based on wind...the Small Craft Advisory to expire over the nearshore
waters by 06z Thursday based on wind...and the Small Craft Advisory over the offshore
waters to expire by 12z Thursday based on sea heights.
Fire weather...current conditions at or near red flag at several
locations. Will allow the rfw to expire at 00z Thursday owing to a
further decrease in wind.
Long term (friday through wednesday)...extended period begins in
return flow around a large Bermuda surface high. Flow aloft is zonal
with an upper low dropping into the southwest US. Net result
for south Texas is continued gradually warming temperatures. Some
weak moisture convergence may lead to a few sprinkles Friday over
the northeast but expect better rain chances to be east and
northeast of the coastal Bend.
Models then wash out the initial shortwave in favor of a more potent
one dropping into West Texas by Sunday morning and then due south
into central Mexico by Monday night. The surface reflection of this
feature would drive a cold front through the coastal Bend early
Sunday morning. Models show some disagreement on placement and depth
of moisture...but left in low probability of precipitation for elevated showers behind the
front Sunday and Sunday night in the moisture pool before the upper
low shunts all of it south of US. If the European model (ecmwf) verifies then rain
chances may end somewhat earlier...but for now will hold on to more
inclusive scenario. Marine headlines may be briefly required Sunday
night until the gradient relaxes.
Rest of the forecast period looks dry with temperatures becoming
above normal by midweek.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 43 67 52 74 60 / 0 0 10 10 10
Victoria 36 67 47 70 58 / 0 0 10 20 10
Laredo 46 70 53 78 60 / 0 0 10 10 10
Alice 40 69 50 74 58 / 0 0 10 10 10
Rockport 45 63 54 69 60 / 0 0 10 10 10
Cotulla 40 69 48 74 56 / 0 0 10 10 10
Kingsville 41 69 51 75 59 / 0 0 10 10 10
Navy corpus 49 63 56 71 61 / 0 0 10 10 10
Texas...red flag warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
Wells...Kleberg...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Nueces...
Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for the following
zones: Aransas...Bee...Calhoun...Goliad...Jim Wells...
Kleberg...Live Oak...Nueces...Refugio...San Patricio...
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 am CDT Thursday
for the following zones: waters from Baffin Bay to Port
Aransas from 20 to 60 nm...waters from Port Aransas to
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 nm.
Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60
nm...waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: bays and waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
Aransas...bays and waterways from Port Aransas to Port
Small Craft Advisory until 1 am CDT Thursday for the following
zones: coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
20 nm...coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
Channel out 20 nm.