Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
432 am EDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015
a surface trough will move across the area this afternoon into the
evening. High pressure will briefly build back into the Ohio Valley
Tuesday night into Wednesday. As the high gets nudged eastward on
Thursday it will allow low pressure to move up the Ohio River valley.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
weak cold front has moved well east of the area. An upper level
trough remains over the region with another piece of jet energy
passing late in the day. As the reinforcing surge of cooler air
arrives it may cause a few showers...maybe a few rumbles of
thunder. The dry air over the region will impact the coverage of
the showers that attempt to develop. The best chances for the
showers will mainly be across NE Ohio into northwest PA.
Mostly sunny/partly cloudy conditions will allow temperatures to
warm to within a couple degrees of 80 for most locations.
Slightly cooler across northwest PA with a few more clouds and flow off
of Lake Erie.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/...
high pressure will briefly take control of the weather across the
region tonight into Wednesday. The high will be nudged eastward
on Thursday allowing low pressure to move up the Ohio River
valley along a stalled frontal boundary. It appears that the
southern half of the County Warning Area will have the best chance
of seeing some light rain from this storm system. Locations closer
to the Lakeshore may remain dry. Another ripple of low pressure
will ride a frontal boundary that should be near or south of the
Ohio River again of Friday. Its impacts look to be south as well.
It will be cooler through the short term with highs in the middle to
Long term /Saturday through Monday/...
Saturday morning low pressure will be exiting off the East Coast as
another low strengthens across the upper Midwest. A weak surface
high will buffer these two systems...which will translate to a
mostly dry weekend across Northern Ohio. Highs will be in the upper
70's both days.
By Monday the high shifts east and a warm front lifts north through
Ohio. Monday night the low draws closer to Northern Ohio. After this
point the models begin to diverge. The GFS attempts to push
everything through with a cold front...whereas the European model (ecmwf) allows
moisture and quantitative precipitation forecast to linger as surface features becomes washed out.
In order to cover both scenarios went with at least slight chance
probability of precipitation through day 7. At least some mention of precipitation seems warranted
with general trofing aloft...which both models continue to show
well. Accordingly temperatures will struggle to get into the 80's
Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
a cold front is now exiting Ohio into PA. Dew points drop off into
the 50's behind the front. Overnight skies will be mostly clear
and the wind will be light. Tuesday expect diurnal cumulus around 5k feet
to develop by late morning and the wind to increase to around 10
knots. By 00z another trough/weak front will affect primarily
Northern Ohio. Keri has the best chance of rain showers...with probability of precipitation
ranging from 30 to 40. Elsewhere...especially at kcle...kcak...and
kyng...middle and high clouds will increase ahead of the trough. Tuesday
evening the wind will diminish to less than 10 knots and skies
will make another run at clearing.
Outlook...non VFR weather possible late Wednesday through Friday.
the lake should be fairly quiet today. However there is a borderline
moderate risk for swimming at Presque Isle this afternoon... with
wave action getting into the higher end of the 1 to 3 foot range. In
general we're looking at 3 feet or less everywhere today with west
winds of 10 to 15 knots. Wednesday the wind will briefly become
northwesterly behind a surface trough and waves will diminish to 2 feet or
less in the west but remain up in the 1 to 3 foot category in the
east. The rest of the week waves will be 3 feet or less.