Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
728 am EDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure over Wisconsin will move east across the area late
tonight. A low will slowly move east across the lakes Thursday night
into Saturday pulling a series of cold fronts across Ohio. A ridge
of high pressure will build south into Lake Erie Saturday night then
shift northeast by Monday to allow a low to slowly move from the
plains into Ohio on Tuesday and stall the rest of the week.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
the upper trough should slowly shift off to the east today while
surface high pressure pushes over the western part of the area by
evening. This should lead to a decreasing threat for lake effect
shrasn this morning then a decrease in clouds from northwest to southeast as
the day progresses. The cool air in place aided by flow off of a
chilly Lake Erie will make for another unseasonably cool day with
highs from about 57 at fdy to the middle to upper 40s in the far NE.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/...
the High Crossing the area will mean light winds tonight setting the
stage for a cold night. However...the models indicate significant
high level moisture spreading in from the west during the night
which should help to lessen the radiational cooling. It should still
be the coldest night of the current run with all but the west at or
below freezing.

Even with the high shifting off to the east on Thursday...there should
still be enough dry in in low level left behind to keep the day dry
but an isolated sprinkle or light rain showers could slip into the tol area.
Temperatures will moderate back close to normal on Thursday.

The models still show a series of cold fronts moving through early Friday
and again early Sat. The first front will bring a band of rain showers
across the County Warning Area Thursday night and Friday morning but not produce much of a
temperature drop. There may be just enough instability for some thunderstorms and rain. The
second front will produce more of a temperature drop for the weekend but
should only result in mainly Just Lake enhanced rain showers for the
snowbelt area along with a few scattered rain showers right along the front. Temperatures
by late Sat night should be cold enough for some snow to mix with
the rain but the spotty nature of the showers by then should lead to
little or no accumulation.

&&

Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Sunday will be a transition day between departing high pressure and
the approach of an upper level low. It appears we will still have
enough upper level ridging to keep rain from the forecast on Sunday
but we should see a gradual increase in middle and high level clouds
through the afternoon. The models then struggle with the placement
of pieces of energy rotating around this upper level low for Monday
into Tuesday. However both models seem to catch onto something for
Tuesday. So at this point this will be the day with the highest
chances of rain in the forecast. This type of storm system typically
creates a diurnal trend of scattered afternoon/evening showers which
decrease in coverage overnight. This trend may not develop until
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Highs on Sunday should recover back into the middle and upper
50s...maybe a few 60s south. Near the Lakeshore it will be cooler
with an onshore flow anticipated. Monday will likely warm a couple
degrees but will all hinge on the amount of filtered sunshine that
can occur. The region should then be within a couple degrees of
seasonal averages for Tuesday into Wednesday. However this assumes
that we do not get an all day steady rain.

&&

Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
upper level trough is east of the region with only a Few Lake
effect rain/snow showers across NE Ohio and northwest PA. The threat of
showers should decrease quickly this morning with some MVFR
ceilings remaining through most of the morning...slightly longer
NE Ohio into northwest PA. There may even be some patchy IFR conditions in
the vicinity of the rain/snow showers. All locations will likely
be VFR between 15z and 18z.

Winds will be a bit gusty into the afternoon but will decrease
quickly by early evening as high pressure increases its influence
on the region. Winds will become light and variable near or
slightly after sunset.

Outlook...non VFR possible at times Thursday night through Sat...especially
NE Ohio and northwest PA.

&&

Marine...
high pressure will continue to build across Lake Erie today. The
strongest northwesterly winds will likely be this morning...then
tapering off into the afternoon as they become more northerly. Winds
should become light and variable as high pressure moves over Lake
Erie tonight. Thought about breaking up the Small Craft Advisory
area with the western basin likely dropping below criteria late in
the morning or early afternoon. Will let the day shift take one last
look at it and decide to drop the west early with the middle morning
update.

Otherwise easterly winds are expected to develop by Thursday
afternoon. We will need to monitor for larger waves on the western
basin since we will have a longer fetch into Thursday evening. Winds
should become southerly and then southwesterly on Friday as a a cold
front moves across the region. We will have to watch to see if
westerly winds will increase enough in the wake of the front to
generate any headlines. Worst case scenario would mean a Small Craft
Advisory for the eastern 2/3rds of the lake.

There will then be a period of quiet conditions over the weekend
with easterly winds increasing late Sunday into early next week. A
long period of easterly winds should develop for next week as upper
level low pressure wobbles somewhere between the Tennessee River
valley and the southern Great Lakes.

&&

Cle watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...none.
PA...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
lez142>149.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Adams
near term...Adams
short term...Adams
long term...Mullen
aviation...Mullen
marine...Mullen