Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
400 PM EDT Thursday may 28 2015
high pressure over the area will move east tonight. This will
allow a cold front to move into the central Great Lakes by
Saturday morning. The cold front should sweep across the region
Saturday. Cool Canadian high pressure will try to build in from
the north on Sunday.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
high pressure will move east overnight but expect clear to pc
skies through the night. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday night/...
Friday morning models already show moisture returning from the
south in return flow on the back side of the high. Expecting
mainy diurnal showers/tstms. Some guidance is in the likely Cat
but went with chance probability of precipitation for now given lack of forcing since the
approaching front will remain to our west. Friday night will
continue with chance probability of precipitation most areas. The cold front will be
closing in on Northwest Ohio so toward morning increased probability of precipitation to
likely northwest. For Saturday the from will move in from the
northwest. Following the sref the best lift gets into Northwest
Ohio and Lake Erie by 00z Sunday so probability of precipitation increase from morning
through the afternoon with likely probability of precipitation for the afternoon. Saturday
night best forcing so will have Cat probability of precipitation tapering from the north
Sunday. Temperatures above normal Friday and Saturday dropping to below
normal Sunday Post front.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
a rather quiet pleasant period is expected as a weak trough early in
period shifts east and high pressure builds at the surface and aloft
over the eastern states. Humidity will gradually increase during the
period. Have lowered pop forecast to reflect the rather dry stable
conditions initially over the region. Later in the period moisture
may increase but with increasing heights instability will be limited
and thus decrease the convective potential. Temperatures will be
slightly below normal initially and then warm to above average.
Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions to prevail into Friday morning as weak high
pressure over the region gradually shifts east. There is enough of
a temperature/dewpoint spread this afternoon to preclude the formation
of fog overnight. Few cumulus well south of Lake Erie will dissipate
toward evening. Moisture will increase Friday morning allowing more
cumulus to form/advect northward. Model guidance suggest widely
scattered showers may form mainly during the afternoon but focus
and timing confidence is low.
Outlook...non VFR conditions Saturday in shra/ts. Non VFR possible
light northwest winds will turn to NE for the afternoon and
increase to 5 to 15 knots which should increase waves to 1 to
possible 3 feet in the west half of the nearshore. Winds will turn
southeast tonight...south on Friday and SW Friday night while running about 10 to
15 knots. A cold front will drop across the lake late Sat and shift
winds to the north then NE. The models differ on how strong of a
pressure gradient will be over the lake Sat night and sun. Based on
best collaboration will allow winds to increase to near marginal
Small Craft Advisory levels. Winds and waves should settle down some for Monday.