Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
1236 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2015
high pressure will slowly push south across Lake Erie
today into Sunday. The high will move east of the area as low
pressure lifts north into Iowa by Monday night. The low pressure
system will force an occluded front north and east across the area
by Tuesday morning. The low pressure system will then move to the
East Coast by Wednesday night.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
a cold front in southern Ohio
will continue to drift slowly south today while high pressure over
WI spreads east across the lakes. Drier air will be pushed slowly
south the rest of the day which will cause the back edge of the
light rain/dz to move south and should be affecting just the
southern counties by nightfall. The cold advection is not overly
strong so think temperatures can rebound some in the north with daytime
heating while the south should see nearly steady temperatures.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday night/...
as the day progresses...upper level ridge will continue to
advance east across the area. This upper level ridge will be over
the area by Monday and then over the eastern Seaboard by Tuesday
morning. This will allow another vigorous upper level low to pin
wheel its way across the northern half of the United States toward
the forecast area. Meanwhile...at the surface...high pressure will
slide east across central Canada allowing low pressure to develop
across the deep south and move north through the middle Mississippi
Valley region to Iowa by Monday night. This low will rapidly
deepen as it becomes influenced by the upper level low. An
occluded front is prognosticated to move northeast toward the area
Tuesday as the low lifts northeast. This system will usher in more
cold air to the forecast area by middle week.
Showers associated with the occluded front will move into the
forecast area by Monday afternoon and they will continue into
Tuesday night. There is the possibility that the rain will become
mixed with snow in the far west by the end of the night Tuesday
Temperatures through the forecast period will see a gradual climb
back into the 50s by Tuesday as warmer air begins to stream north
ahead of the occluded front. The true warm front may remain south
of the area Tuesday. If the warm front pushes north of the area
Tuesday then temperatures may be too cold for highs in this
forecast. So will have to monitor the progress of the front and if
it indeed does lift north then highs Tuesday will need to be
Long term /Wednesday through Friday/...
extended models all Show Low pressure moving into the western Great
Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday but of varying strength. The low
lifts into Canada on Thursday then off the New England coast by
Thursday evening. Temperatures cool in the wake of the front on
Wednesday but the air is not all that cold. 850 mb temperatures dip
to around -5. This is not conducive to significant lake effect
rain/snow showers. Have gone with a mix Wednesday night with any
accumulating snow over inland northwest PA. The lake effect chances end by
Thursday evening as high pressure moves into Ohio.
Temperatures Wednesday through Friday should be very close to
Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/...
widespread IFR along and south of a Keri-kfwa line with
conditions lifting to MVFR along the northern tier from kcle to
ktol to kfdy. High pressure building into the central Great Lakes
will expand south across Lake Erie and into Ohio through the day
and overnight tonight. This will continue the trend of slowly
improving conditions from the north. Brought the dominant
condition to VFR at ktol around 02z and kcle around 08z. Kcak and
kyng should be last to reach VFR by about 14-16z Sunday.
Outlook...non VFR Monday evening into Tuesday night. Non VFR
possible again Wednesday.
cold front was located from southwestern Ohio to north central PA
early this morning. This boundary will continue to drift southward
as high pressure begins to ridge into the area today. Winds will be
from the northeast through the day. Strongest winds will occur this
morning but believe they will remain in the 15 to 20 knot range.
This will be enough to keep waves to 2 to 4 foot range from
Cleveland to the western basin. Winds and waves will decrease into
the afternoon. Will drop the Small Craft Advisory. Winds will
gradually shift from northeast to east Sunday night. As low pressure
deepens over the Central Plains Monday into Tuesday it will push a
warm front into the region with southeast winds becoming southerly
by Tuesday morning. The southerly winds will shift to the southwest
and west as a cold front crosses the lake Tuesday afternoon into the
evening. Small craft conditions may occur ahead of the front on
Tuesday and in its wake on Wednesday. More details to come on this
through the week as we await better consistency between the models.