Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
409 am EST Monday Jan 26 2015
low pressure over southern West Virginia will move to the Carolina
coast...then move up the East Coast late today and Tuesday
deepening into a noreaster. Arctic high pressure will build in from
the west through Tuesday. The next clipper arrives by Thursday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
the drier air is eroding the snow shield and the short wave and
surface low are moving east this morning. The snow should slowly end
from west to east and become lighter. The exception will be across
the far eastern counties where the lingering inverted surface
trough combined with the deepening trough aloft will generate
enough upward motion for the snow to linger into the afternoon.
The snow is still expanding across Crawford and Erie counties in
northwest Pennsylvania. Despite the ice on Lake Erie the north to
northeast wind will likely contribute at least a little moisture
and some light snow/flurries will likely linger from Sandusky to
Cleveland this morning.
The northeast wind is strong enough for some drifting snow although
the drifting will typically diminish when the snow tapers off and
there is no new powder. Will cancel the Winter Weather Advisory in
Hancock County where the snow will be over before daybreak. Will
let the original expiration time of 7 am stand for Wyandot... Marion
and Crawford counties. Will extend the advisory for much of north
central Ohio until 9 am and extend the advisory for Stark and
Mahoning counties until noon. The snow will linger in Mahoning
County past noon but it should be light by that time.
The sun will come out across the I-75 corridor this morning although
high clouds will increase this afternoon.
Highs today near or below the NAM/met MOS guidance...generally in
the upper teens and lower 20s.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/...
the next short wave will drop into the trough tonight with
another on Tuesday. Patchy high and middle clouds will push across
the forecast area. Some light snow/flurries will linger across NE
Ohio/northwest PA. We should see the remaining clouds dissipate Tuesday
night. High clouds will begin to increase again on Wednesday ahead
of the next clipper.
Temperatures will be below guidance all periods. Used a combination
of the raw model surface thermal fields and intuition to try guess
the best temperatures given the Arctic air mass and the fresh
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
another low expected to track across the area Thursday into Thursday night for
more widespread precipitation. Temperatures on the bubble for snow or rain but
colder air moving in Thursday night should change all precipitation to snow.
Moisture somewhat limited so snow accumulation should not be very
heavy. High pressure moves in on Friday so things should dry out except
for some lingering light shsn in the snowbelt.
On the weekend...yet another low will cross the region but this time
it will be followed by Arctic air. There is timing differences by
the models on the speed of the low and when the Arctic air arrives
so will use some averaging in the forecast.
Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/...
surface circulation moving slowly east through the lower Ohio
Valley. Widespread IFR still across central and portions of
Northern Ohio while still VFR at ktol and Keri. Low will continue
slowly east reaching WV by 12z. As the low moves further east
drier air will continue to get pulled in from the northwest.
Models still suggesting however that low level moisture will
increase into northwestern PA through the night and into Tuesday. Expect
conditions to continue widespread IFR across north central and
northeast Ohio and deteriorate through MVFR to IFR in northwestern PA.
Northwest Ohio should continue continue to improve with conditions
primarily VFR at ktol and improving from IFR to VFR in kfdy.
Outlook...non VFR north central and northeast Ohio and northwestern PA
through Tuesday and then again on Thursday.
NE winds 15 to 25 knots will gradually diminish today into tonight
while becoming north. Winds will be light and changeable through Thursday
then pick up out of the northwest Thursday night to about 10 to 20 knots as a
low moves east of the lake.
Ohio...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 am EST this morning for
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 am EST this morning for ohz027-
Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for ohz032-033.