Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
330 PM EDT Thursday Oct 23 2014
high pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley tonight with mostly
clear skies. A weak disturbance will move through the area on
Friday with a brief increase in cloud cover. Another disturbance
will move through the area on Saturday with a slight chance for
light showers or sprinkles.
Near term /until 6 am Friday/...
visible satellite shows slow erosion of the cumulus clouds that
have developed this afternoon. The night will start off mostly
clear with subsidence over the region. Decoupling will allow
temperatures in most areas to bottom out...with lows in the 40s. A few
middle 30s are possible in the southern foothills which could produce
some patchy frost. The gradient flow in the east will not allow for
decoupling so not expecting Erie/Crawford to be our cold spots
tomorrow morning. Not expecting an fog development like last night
due to sufficient mixing this afternoon and drying.
Short term /6 am Friday through Monday night/...
a weak upper wave will move through Friday. At this time looking
at mainly some middle/high clouds as the best forcing and moisture is
north of the area. Despite the clouds temperatures will be a few
degree warmer than today with h850 warming a few degrees. Looking at
temperatures in the lower 60s across the western 2/3rds...and
upper 50s elsewhere. For Saturday a weak cold front will move
through the area late. Temperatures in advance of the front will
warm into the middle 60s...mainly in the west where the clouds will
be less dense. The forcing and moisture is very limited with this
system though the northeastern counties could see a chance for
light rain. Sunday looks dry with the upper ridge building back in
with drier air. For Monday the ridge axis will be over the region
and h850 temperatures will warm to around 12c. This will likely bring
temperatures near 70...well above normal for this time of year.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
fairly typical pattern in the extended period for this time of year.
Ridge of high pressure over the forecast area through the late
weekend will remain over the area through the early part of the
week. This system will produce fair conditions with slightly warmer
than average temperatures for Monday and Tuesday. The models show a
cold front sweeping through the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. I will keep showers in the forecast Tuesday night and
most of Wednesday. If the model timing is correct...showers will be
ending in the afternoon over the western and central parts of the
forecast area. High pressure will build over the region again on
Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/...
areas of fog and stratus finally lifting over the forecast area.
Light north flow has picked up some moisture over the lakes
creating some cumulus in the central and northeast sections of the
forecast area. Cumulus will continue this afternoon scattered to broken with
ceiling heights 2-3kft. Cumulus should dissipate after 21z. High/middle
clouds will move in overnight. A light northwest flow will become
variable and shift to the southwest on Friday. Winds will be light
overnight. Widespread areas of stratus and fog developed last
night in these conditions. High and middle clouds should move over
the forecast area tonight which should decrease the chance of IFR
stratus and fog forming but the timing on how fast the clouds move
over the area will be critical. Currently none of the guidance has
IFR over the area tonight. I will not place anything in the
forecast at this time but I am concerned for the potential
particularly over the eastern taf sites.
Outlook...non VFR ceilings at times Friday and Saturday perhaps
lingering across extreme NE Ohio/northwest PA into Sunday.
weak high pressure will build over the lake tonight. Light northwest winds
will become light and variable. A cold front will approach the
region Friday night and Saturday. The winds will shift to the
southwest in advance of the front on Friday and remain southwest on
Saturday. Winds will increase on Saturday afternoon in advance of
the front. Winds will shift to the west behind the front Saturday
night and Sunday. Winds may approach small craft criteria Saturday
evening through Sunday. Another cold front will approach the lake on
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Winds will shift to the south in
advance of the approaching front.