Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
355 PM EST sun Mar 1 2015
an upper level trough will move across the central Great Lakes
tonight. This as high pressure ridges into the region from the
Midwest. This high will drift across Ohio on Monday reaching the
East Coast by Tuesday morning. A strong area of low pressure will
develop over the Central Plains Monday night and is expected to
pass to the north of Lake Erie on Tuesday night.
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
mesoscale bands of snow developed early this afternoon and
produced some heavier burst of snow that are now located from
Central Lake Erie southwestward into western Ohio. This area is
ahead of the upper level trough that is moving into the central
Snow has tapered off across Northwest Ohio for now but there still is
some instability and upper level support to move across the
region. There still may be a few more bursts of snow across Northwest
Ohio so will keep the Winter Weather Advisory going. The 00z end
time across the west is looking good at this point. Eastern areas
will keep the bursts of heavier snow into the evening. We did pull
the end time of the east advisory to 09z and will leave it that
way. Besides northwest PA should continue to see snow through the night
but decreasing after 06z.
Otherwise high pressure will begin to build into the region
overnight. The drier air and subsidence after midnight should be
enough to break up the clouds across the west. This should allow
temperatures to chill into the middle teens. Cloud cover should
be enough to blanket the east with lows from around 20 into the
Short term /6 am Monday morning through Tuesday/...
high pressure will take control on Monday but the sunshine will be
slow to spread eastward. It appears that some snow flurries will
linger across NE Ohio into northwest PA through early afternoon before
ending. The region should then have a 12 to 18 hour window of dry
conditions before the next area of low pressure increases its
influence on the region. The stronger area of low pressure will
bring warmer air with it as it moves from the plains into the the
central Great Lakes on Tuesday. This surge of moisture and warmth
will lead to an increase of precipitation Tuesday morning. The
difficulty will be the precipitation type. It does appear that
there will be some freezing rain and sleet but current thinking is
that this will be a fairly quick transition through Tuesday
morning. However there is concern that the freezing rain could
persist the longest across extreme NE Ohio into northwest PA...especially
the inland cooler valleys. Some ice accumulation will be possible.
The warmer air and rain does raise concerns for area rivers but
much of the rainfall may just be absorbed into the snow pack which
will limit the runoff. This combined with the time period that the
region will be well above freezing is uncertain. If you live near
any of the rivers across Northern Ohio and northwest PA make sure you
keep up with updates to the forecast the next couple days.
Highs on Monday will reach into the middle 20s. Brief clearing or
at least significant breaks in the cloud cover will allow lows
Monday night to dip into the teens. Warmer by Tuesday afternoon
with highs into the 40s. The only exceptions may be across extreme
NE Ohio into northwest PA where middle 30s may be the best we can do.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
we continue to monitor potential quantitative precipitation forecast on Tuesday night as the cold
front pushes back south. Models have trended towards more separation
between the leading shortwave lifting out of the southwest on the
Tuesday and the trough dropping down out of Canada. This may allow
the front to pack less of a punch as it pushes back south. Still
expecting the maximum area of quantitative precipitation forecast to be focused south of our forecast
area closer to the Ohio Valley where there is a little more
instability to work with. We will need to keep an eye on the
progress of the front and make sure that higher rain rates do not
continue in our southeastern counties into the evening. Temperatures
on Tuesday night will hold near 40 through midnight with cooling
taking place late. The transition back to snow will be brief late
Highs on Wednesday will occur in the morning with temperatures
dropping back into the 20s during the afternoon. Temperatures
continue to fall Wednesday night with lows dipping back to the
single digits as skies clear.
Dry to end the week as high pressure builds in from the west and
lingers into the weekend. Temperatures attempt to moderate into the
middle 30s over the weekend.
Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...
snow will continue at most taf sites through at least 22z...then
gradually taper off from west to east through 04z. At 18z...a band
of snow was intensifying across Northwest Ohio. Bursts of snow may
cause visibilities to be reduced to a half mile at tol/cle this
afternoon as this band moves across Northern Ohio. Other sites may
start to see visibilities bounce into the MVFR range at times this
afternoon. Clouds will gradually start to scatter out in Northwest
Ohio towards 12z. Southwest winds will shift to the west this
Outlook...non-VFR again on Tuesday then continuing into
westerly winds will increase to near 15 knots tonight then northwest
near 20 knots as a cold front pushes south across the lake. High
pressure will build overhead on Monday. A warm front will lift north
across the lake late Tuesday with south to southwest winds of 20-25
knots on Tuesday night. Winds will shift to the west and remain in
the 15-20 knot range behind the associated cold front into Wednesday
Ohio...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 am EST Monday for ohz011>014-
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ohz003-
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 am EST Monday for paz001>003.