Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
315 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015
a cold front across the central Great Lakes will push southeast
of the area this evening and stall across southern Ohio by
tomorrow morning. A wave of low pressure will ride along the front
across Ohio on Thursday.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
cold front just northwest of Toledo area still forecast to move southeast
across the area this evening. Leading edge of the precipitation
and the heaviest rains associated with prefrontal trough. However
with convective available potential energy hovering around 2k j/kg some development now ahead of
prefrontal trough. The 6 hour quantitative precipitation forecast observation generally between a quarter
and a half inch while models running higher. Will need to monitor
convection ahead of prefrontal trough for a training situation...but
as of now do not think area will need a watch. Back edge of the
precipitation should be near southeastern border by late evening. Still some
doubts as to how far south the front will track tonight before
stalling...so left chance probability of precipitation going overnight across the southeastern
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday night/...
forecast problem for Wednesday is how far south the front will move
before stalling...then how quickly it will lift north ahead of next
wave. For now just left chance probability of precipitation going for the south and southeastern
counties for tomorrow. Models continue to move wave along the
frontal boundary Thursday...although the track and timing differs
somewhat. All 3 models track the low into central/east central
Indiana by daybreak Thursday. The NAM tracks the low across
central Ohio during the day Thursday...while the GFS tracks the low
across Northern Ohio. For now will just continue likely probability of precipitation for
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
the pattern looks wet through
the period as first a warm front lifts north across the area Sat and
Sat night then drifts back south as an upper level trough digs southeast
into the area and stalls sun through Tuesday. Expect numerous rain showers and thunderstorms and rain
to hang around each day through Tuesday and probably through all of next week
as the pattern doesn't change. Temperatures should stay withing a few
degrees of normal each day.
Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/...
a band of rain showers and thunderstorms and rain
will move slowly southeast across the rest of the area through early tonight
eventually stalling over our southern taf sites late tonight and
continuing on Wednesday. The threat for thunderstorms and rain should shift southeast of the area
by midnight so think after that should just see rain showers. Conditions
will lower with the cold front causing the rain showers/thunderstorms and rain with low
MVFR/IFR spreading southeast over the area for much of the end of today and
tonight. There should be some improvement for the northern taf sites
and maybe at fdy late tonight and Wednesday morning as slightly drier air
tries to push into Northwest Ohio and the rest of the Lakeshore area.
Outlook...on and off periods of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain through sun with non VFR
likely to prevail much of the time.
SW winds of 10 to 20 knots will continue to veer to northwest
then north through early tonight then to the NE Wednesday morning. Weak high
pressure moving in for Wednesday night will diminish the winds. After that
the winds are more uncertain as a front south of the lake slowly
drifts back near the lake to hang out at least through early next week.
Waves of low pressure will move east along the front leading to
changeable winds but the exact timing of these weak features is
uncertain. Since the systems are expected to be weak...winds should
tend to stay under 15 knots.