Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
407 PM EDT Wednesday may 27 2015
a weakening cold front will move to the east this evening. Weak high
pressure will briefly be over the area Thursday but will move off
the New England coast early Friday as low pressure moves through
the central Great Lakes.
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
a line of convection will move east across the area this the
evening hours. Timing based on the hrrr has it east by about 2-3z.
Skies should clear overnight Post cold front. Lows near MOS.
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Saturday night/...
Thursday high pressure will be in control for the day with fairly
dry air in place. Will go with partly cloudy/mostly sunny for the
day. Thursday night moisture will return from the south as the
high moves east. Concerned about showers developing mainly east
half. Friday a cold front will approach from the
northwest..reaching the Central Lakes by 00z Saturday. Saturday
the cold front will move through. Likely probability of precipitation reasonable through
the first half of Saturday night. Probability of precipitation will taper from northwest
to southeast late Saturday night and Sunday.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
the biggest issue in the extended portion of the forecast is how far
south the front will sag on Sunday and how quickly it comes back
north. Will decrease the chance of showers on Sunday. A lot of
times the models are over done on how much precipitation actually occurs in
these patterns. Will keep a low pop chance (15-30 pop) early next
week until we can see a better trend in the models and gradually
increase temperatures back up above normal by middle week.
Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
weak cold front over Indiana will move east this afternoon and
early tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will fill in ahead of the
front. Some of the storms will have strong winds and hail and
local IFR conditions. The south to southwest wind will be gusty
ahead of the front. Winds veering west behind the front tonight and
then light north by Thursday morning. VFR except for patchy MVFR
fog Thursday morning.
Outlook...non VFR conditions Saturday in shra/ts. Non VFR
possible into Sunday.
the weak cold front crossing Lake Erie early tonight will continue
to produce thunderstorms with gusty winds as it moves east and
mariners on the central and eastern basin will have to monitor for
thunderstorms. The gradient is pretty light behind the front and
comes around from the north and the northeast on Thursday...veering
toward the southeast and south again by Friday ahead of the next
front. Winds will be stronger with the next front...increasing from
the southwest early Saturday and shifting to north and northeast
after the frontal passage late Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory may
be needed by later Saturday into Sunday.