Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
945 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014
a weak ridge across the area will shift east on Sunday. This will
allow a low pressure system to move across the eastern Great
Lakes late Monday night and early Tuesday...dragging another cold front
across the area. High pressure will build in on Wednesday.
Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
high clouds continue to drift westward from low pressure off the
southeastern US. The clouds may help to keep locations a degree or
two colder across the southeastern County Warning Area. However
with the drier low levels and light winds the region will still be
able to radiate a bit.
Previous discussion... a ridge over the lake will weaken a little
overnight. Some cirrus will be around in the east early tonight
and in the west late. It should be thin. On the edge about the
lows tonight...the winds should be relatively light later on
tonight. Used a blend of guidance and local schemes for the lows.
Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday night/...
the ridge will be to the east with a southerly flow on Sunday and
some cirrus. Should be mostly sunny...no jet dynamics to help
enhance the clouds...could be filtered sunshine at times. We will
get a lake breeze...definitely warmer than today. The main impact of
the lake breeze will be along the Lakeshore.
Some cirrus around Sunday night and then a little increase in clouds
on Monday ahead of the cold front that will move through late Monday
night. Some showers will occur ahead of the front. The airmass will
be somewhat stable...so just mentioned a chance of thunder over
Northwest Ohio Monday evening. After the frontal passage there will
be a Little Break in the showers but then scattered showers will
develop especially in the east during the afternoon...all areas will
have plenty of clouds. Colder air continues to flow in Tuesday
night. The lake and 850 mb temperature difference could approach
10c. Some lake enhanced showers will be occurring at first and then
they will slowly taper off from west to east. This run of the models
are colder and are indicating that the rain could mix with snow
after midnight. Since this is the first run indicating this...will
not mention a mix...will see what the next model runs show.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
upper level pattern trending toward another ridge that will build
east across the forecast area on Wednesday and Wednesday night. This
feature will allow surface high to build into the area as well.
Low pressure will lift northeast into the western Great Lakes
Thursday night forcing a warm front northeast across the forecast
area. Moisture appears to be limited with the front and this may
limit shower threat. Will keep the mention going for now and see how
this changes with successive model runs.
Upper level trough will push east into the region in association
with the low pressure system Thursday and Friday. The upper level
trough will slow the forward motion of the surface low as the trough
becomes negatively tilted.
Eventually...the surface low pressure system will move slowly east
and out of the area taking the moisture with it by the weekend. Some
cold air advection will take place in the wake of the low but will
likely modify as time GOES on. High pressure is expected to build
southeast into the forecast area Saturday into Sunday to give a
brief break from the precipitation threat.
At this time...not expecting any strong cold air outbreaks through
this extended forecast period.
Aviation /00z Sunday through Thursday/...
a ridge of high pressure over the region will shift east to the
Middle Atlantic States on Sunday. VFR conditions will prevail into
Monday with only cirrus clouds expected. East to northeast winds
will diminish and shift to the southeast overnight as the high
Outlook...non VFR is possible Monday night into early Tuesday.
winds will pick up out of the east northeast through this evening
and will be strong enough at around 15 knots to support the issuance
of a Small Craft Advisory from Cleveland west into the islands. So
will hoist the advisory through 3 am in the morning. Winds could
diminish before this time but this will give a little extra hedge
room in case the winds hold up. Otherwise...winds will not be too
strong across the lake through Monday. A cold front will sweep
across the lake on Tuesday and the winds will increase out of the
northwest Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Light and variable winds
expected on Thursday.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 3 am EDT Sunday for lez142>146.