Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
310 am EST Wednesday Jan 28 2015
high pressure over Ohio will move off to the east by tonight then
low pressure will move east across Lake Erie Thursday. High pressure
will work east across the region Friday night. A low will move
northeast across West Virginia Sunday night and to the New England
coast Monday pulling an Arctic cold front down across the area.
Near term /until 6 PM Wednesday evening/...
high pressure over the area will start to shift east by this
evening. After a cold start to the day...the sunshine should cause
temperatures to rebound back into the low to middle 20s even with increasing
high clouds...but not as warm as the mav guidance.
Short term /6 PM Wednesday evening through Saturday night/...
the return flow will increase tonight allowing a low level jet to
develop. 850 mb temperatures increase about 6 to 8 degrees from 00z to 12z
so we should see surface temperatures start rising after evening temperature drops
of about 5 degrees. The issue will be whether any precipitation can reach
Northwest Ohio before temperatures rise above freezing Thursday morning. Temperatures aloft will
be warm enough by 12z for rain versus snow so if temperatures are not above
freezing when the precipitation arrives then there will be some freezing rain. If
the precipitation does end up arriving on the faster side then we may
eventually need an advisory to cover this late tonight or the first
thing Thursday morning.
With the help of the low level jet...light rain or freezing rain will quickly
spread east across the County Warning Area through 18z Thursday. A cold front will be pulled
across the area Thursday afternoon and evening which will bring in colder
air and change the precipitation over to just snow. Drier air arriving
should end the precipitation before much snow has the chance to accumulate
for the west half of the area. Lake enhancement will start to take
place Thursday night as a shot of Arctic air clips into the area. Think
we could see 2 to locally 5 inches of snowfall in the snowbelt by
the time high pressure moves in by Friday evening to taper the snow
showers down to mostly flurries. The higher totals should be
confined to the higher terrain of northwest PA.
The timing of the high moving in for Friday night to partially clear
the skies should lead to a cold night with lows 3 or 4 degrees
either side of zero.
Concerned on Sat that the warm advective lift aloft could lead to
some light snow or flurries near Lake Erie but for now will stay
with a dry forecast.
Models continue to jump around for the Sat into sun features but in
general they now seem to be settling around drawing a low out of
Texas on sun that moves toward WV. Increasing high clouds seem
likely on Sat. Low levels try and stay dry through most of Sat night so
not sure if any snow develops by the latter part of the night or
waits until Sun morning. Will keep ongoing forecast of ramping up
chance probability of precipitation for the second half of the night for mainly the northwest half.
Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
high pressure will move off the middle Atlantic on Sunday allowing
the next storm system to move toward the region from the Southern
Plains. The atmosphere will be cold and rather dry on Sunday and
should take most of the day to moisten up from the top down. However
by Sunday night snow will develop and likely continue into at least
Monday morning. The track of this storm is still uncertain but
several inches of snow should occur. Details will evolve over the
next few days. We will then see if we get any lake effect snow
showers Monday afternoon into Tuesday. There is plenty of ice on
Lake Erie at this point so its influence will be minimal but we will
have to monitor for any cracks that can open up and the influence of
Sunday will be the warm day of the long term forecast with highs in
the middle 20s to near 30. Much colder Monday into Tuesday with most
locations seeing highs in the teens. If skies can clear Monday night
lows will likely dip to within a couple degrees of zero.
Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
a couple bands of clouds extending from Lake Erie south through
the Cleveland and Akron Canton areas and another band through Erie
Pennsylvania will gradually shift to the east and dissipate.
Expecting mainly clear skies through the day tomorrow. Some high
clouds will spread into the area from west to east by the end of
the period. Wind flow will shift to southerly and increase in
speed tomorrow evening.
Outlook...non-VFR returns on Thursday in widespread snow...but
may begin as a short period of freezing Rain. Lake effect snow
showers will continue in the east Friday. More accumulating snow
is expected late Sunday into Sunday night.
high pressure over Ohio will shift eastward through the day. As the
high moves to the East Coast it will allow southerly winds to return
late today into tonight. These south to southwest winds will
increase on Monday as low pressure moves into the central Great
Lakes. At this point it appears winds will remain under 25 knots in
the south to southwest flow. However as the low and associated cold
front pass Thursday evening winds will shift to the northwest and
will likely get close to 30 knots for a few hours. Winds become more
northerly on Friday but will gradually decrease into Friday night as
high pressure once again moves over Ohio.
The lake is mostly ice covered but the stronger winds Thursday into
Friday afternoon will cause ice floes.