Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
626 am EDT sun Mar 9 2014
high pressure will be across the Ohio Valley today. Low pressure
will cross the northern Great Lakes and move east to New England
between Monday and Tuesday. This will bring a cold front to
Northern Ohio/northwest PA on Tuesday. A complicated system will track
across Kentucky into Maryland on Wednesday and be followed by high
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
significant clearing taking place early this morning. Patchy fog
has developed...but not widespread enough to throw into the
forecast. There will still be stratocu off of the lake...patches
drifting into NE Ohio/northwest PA through the morning hours. Others will
clear out. By the afternoon hours middle/high clouds will be on the
slow increase as a warm front will be moving east across the Great
Lakes. Winds will back to the southwest for the majority of today
and temperatures will range from freezing to 40 degrees. This
early morning update included tweaks to the clouds first thing
this morning and temperatures. Those that have cleared have
dropped into the teens...others staying in the 20s until they
clear before sunrise.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/...
warm air advection tonight and with it a small chance for precipitation
toward Monday morning. It does not look like chances are any
better or worse than we already had going...basically 20 probability of precipitation for
far NE Ohio/northwest PA. With temperatures the way they are...rain/snow
mix. With a continued southwest flow expect temperatures to drop
little overnight...or possibly rise some before morning. Majority
of the lift and moisture exits by Monday afternoon.
The Great Lakes low makes its way to New England by Tuesday and at
this point its cold front will be sinking south toward the
area...with moisture gathering along the front Tuesday night. From
this point forward the forecast gets complicated. The system we
had been watching for late Tuesday/Wednesday has come into closer
agreement than it had been...but still leaves much to be desired.
Average track of the low amongst models takes it across Kentucky
and to Maryland. Northern extent of precipitation drawn further
north...aided by the cold front sinking south with this systems
northern component. Temperatures look to start out marginal for
all snow at least for a line from Findlay to Cleveland to
Cortland. Here and south precipitation can be rain or a mix for a number
of hours reducing the snow accumulate potential. With time the cold air
will be drawn southward into the system and will go to all
snow....transitioning early Wednesday. No estimate on snowfall
this far out...but we will continue to fine tune.
Trend is for the upper trough to pull east quicker and partial
clearing/drying out to take place before 12z Thursday. This system will
be followed by another shot of unseasonably cold air. Guidance
has a broad range on the potential for lows for Wednesday night.
Have settled with a compromise in the teens.
Long term /Thursday through Saturday/...
some lingering snow showers may persist through Thursday morning
across NE Ohio and northwest PA as the upper level trough moves to the New
England coast. This will allow high pressure to ridge into the area
Thursday evening. The next area of low pressure will move from the
northern lakes and cross Ontario on Friday. Southwesterly breezes
will bring warmer temperatures back to the region on Friday after a
well below average high on Thursday. Most locations on Friday should
rebound to the 40s. There could be some light precipitation as the
low passes Friday afternoon/evening into Saturday. If it does occur
it will be light with most locations seeing sprinkles/light rain. It
wont be much cooler in the wake of the low on Saturday with highs
still near or just above 40.
Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
snow has pushed south of the area. Current MVFR conditions will
give way to VFR Sunday morning as high pressure and drier air
moves in from the north. Northwest flow tonight will back to the
Outlook...non VFR possible northwestern PA Monday. Non VFR likely Tuesday
night through Wednesday in -sn.
high pressure will ridge over Lake Erie this morning then shift
slowly southward as the next area of low pressure takes shape over
the northern Great Lakes region. As the low moves across Ontario
tonight into Monday expect to see southwest winds increase to at
least 25 knots...maybe reaching 30 knots for a brief period across
the eastern half of the lake. Low pressure is then expected to track
along the Ohio River valley Wednesday while high pressure remains
across Ontario. This should set up a tight pressure gradient in the
wake of the low. Northerly winds should reach at least 25 knots
Wednesday afternoon. We will have to monitor this closely with the
possibility of touching gales. Northerly winds will decrease into
Thursday then back to the west and southwest ahead of the next area
of low pressure that will move north of Lake Erie on Friday. Winds
will once again increase to 25 to 30 knots with this storm system.