Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
1237 am EST Friday Dec 26 2014
high pressure will ridge into the region from the Middle Atlantic
States tonight into Friday. The high will then move off the coast
allowing low pressure to move into the central Great Lakes on
Saturday. The low is expected to reach western Quebec Saturday
night with a cold front moving across the area.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
update...clearing has progressed eastward with haste and is now
closing in on the central Lakeshore. Have adjusted clouds to
reflect clearing across the area through the early overnight. Some
middle/high level clouds look to be moving into northwestern Ohio from the
west but will keep as pc. Adjusted hourly temperatures to hold on
to the middle/upper 30s a little while longer where the stratus
Original...high pressure will ridge into the area from the Middle
Atlantic States tonight. Clouds have been attempting to thin all
day with the clearing line about to enter eastern Indiana. Expect
to see the cloud cover to continue to decrease from west to east
through the night.
In any event it will be cooler overnight when compared to this
mornings low. All locations should be within a couple degrees of
30. If we can clear soon enough across the west temperatures may
need to be nudged down slightly.
Short term /6 am this morning through Sunday night/...
dry conditions will continue into Friday night as high pressure
persists over the middle Atlantic coast. As the high moves out
into the Atlantic it will allow low pressure to move into the
central Great Lakes by Saturday afternoon. Showers should begin to
spill into Northwest Ohio Saturday afternoon as a cold front gets closer.
The remainder of the region should see showers Saturday night as
the low lifts northeastward into western Quebec and drags the cold
front eastward with it. At this point it appears the precipitation
will remain liquid. However colder air will spill into Northwest Ohio
Saturday night after midnight and may allow any remaining showers
to become snow showers. This transition to snow should spread
eastward on Sunday but looks to occur as the precipitation is
ending. So with that said it appears any snowfall accumulations
will be light to nonexistent.
Friday will see warmer conditions with highs back into the middle
and upper 40s for daytime highs. Increasing cloud cover Friday
night should keep temperatures above freezing Friday night.
Continued warm advection on Saturday will boost highs to within a
couple degrees of 50 at most locations. Cooler in the wake of the
front on Sunday with highs back into the middle to upper 30s.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
long term trending toward troughiness in the east that will persist
through the period. This will translate into what appears to be a
trough of low pressure that slowly sags south across the area late
Tuesday into Wednesday in the wake of a surface ridge of high
pressure. The trough will have limited moisture associated with it
and may be enhanced by lake moisture. Will introduce a broad minimal
chance for some light snow showers Monday through Tuesday and some
lake effect in the northeast Tuesday night. Fair weather returns
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Another stronger cold front will
slide south into the region by Thursday and bring with it colder air
and a chance for some more snow shower activity by Thursday evening.
Temperatures through the period trending colder and will adjust
Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/...
skies will continue to clear across northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania early this morning as the surface high pressure moves
east across the area and the surface flow backs to the south. VFR
into Friday night with just patches of high clouds.
Outlook...non-VFR late Saturday through Sunday. Non-VFR mainly
over NE Ohio/northwest PA Monday...then possibly over the entire area
winds will gradually diminish overnight into Friday but remain
rather brisk on the east half of the lake with a long southwest
fetch. Will cancel the Small Craft Advisory from Vermilion to
Willowick since the winds speeds have lightened and the south to
southwest direction is mostly offshore. Small craft advisories
will remain in effect east of Willowick at least into Friday. The
next cold front is due on Saturday night and the gradient may be
just enough for a Small Craft Advisory east of Cleveland on
Sunday. No big storm systems expected next week but a large area
of high pressure will build across the Great Lakes by middle week
and the pressure rises may bring enough wind to necessitate a
Small Craft Advisory on the east half of the lake.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for