Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
348 am EDT Friday may 24 2013
Synopsis...
Canadian high pressure will build into the region today and stick
around through Monday. Temperatures will slowly rebound next
week...with 70+ readings for Tuesday Onward.
&&
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
significant area of clearing has made its way into Toledo and
Marion early this morning. Overall this will be the trend for
today...although the snowbelt counties will have to wait until
late in day. Stratus pouring Down Lake Huron and with 800 mb temperatures
around -2c would expect lake effect clouds to hang on a while.
Precipitation has ended for cle westward. Showers will continue to exit
to the east quickly this morning. Winds will still be elevated.
Temperatures will run 10 to 20 degrees below normal. As was noted
yesterday...MOS guidance keeps trending downward. Forecast is
several degrees colder than we were forecasting a few days
ago...but did not go as cool as this mornings guidance. Upstream
yesterday where it cleared out across WI and northwest Illinois it made it into
the 60s...with 50s where it remained cloudy...although 800 mb temperatures
were a tad warmer. Will stick with 50 northwest PA and lower 60s for I-75
corridor.
&&
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...'
with dry high pressure overhead this weekend...biggest concern
will be with the possibility of some frost both Friday and
Saturday nights. Each night still has its potential issues that
would inhibit too much frost development...but the possibility is
there. So for now will continue to mention it in the forecast and
severe weather potential statement...but forgo any frost advisory headline until the forecast
this afternoon...if needed. For tonight...winds should diminish
for the second half of the night...but there is the possibility of
some cloud cover. Models indicating weak shortwave coming across
the eastern lakes. With a good temperature differential between
the lake and temperatures aloft...cannot rule out some stratus
development. In addition jet maxima accompanies the shortwave...so
there may even be a few high clouds. If we end up really lacking
any moisture and the winds calm...then yes we would probably have
frost development across inland locations of both Ohio and PA. A
freeze is a small potential across inland northwest PA and far eastern
Ohio.
Each day over the weekend will be a slight improvement from the
day before...with the exception that the nights will still be
cool. System from the northern plains still on track to pass south
of the area Saturday night. Again this might cause issues with
frost or not. Best potential again is for inland eastern Ohio and
northwest PA. Will go from high temperatures between the upper 50s and 60s
Saturday to 65 to 70 by Monday. Still have a few middle 30s forecast
for Sunday night...but by Monday night will be out of the Woods as
the high shifts east.
&&
Long term /Tuesday through Thursday/...
long term begins Tuesday with models in general agreement showing a
broad upper ridge from the western lakes through the Tennessee
Valley. Low pressure at the surface will be centered over the
Central Plains with a warm front into the Tennessee and lower Ohio
Valley. Overrunning flow across this boundary could give US clouds
and a few thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. Will have low
chance probability of precipitation in place to cover the possibility. Otherwise models
build the ridge into the lower Ohio Valley through middle week so
lowered guidance probability of precipitation across much of the area to slight chance
through the remainder of the period. Temperatures above normal through the
long term portion.
&&
Aviation /07z Friday through Tuesday/...
conditions IFR across the eastern half of the area with MVFR
across the western half. Satellite shows much drier air moving in
from the north-northwest with clearing occurring across southeastern lower Michigan. Timed this
clearing into ktol area by 06z and kfdy by 07z. Clearing will then
spread southeast across the area reaching kcle around 10z and Keri by
15z. Conditions will then remain VFR through the balance of the
forecast period. Winds will be gusty from the north-northwest reaching close
to 30 knots at times during the day. Winds will diminish by
evening.
Outlook...VFR.
&&
Marine...
will continue with Small Craft Advisory through today and into
tonight. North winds will continue 20 to 25 knots approaching 30
knots at times through the afternoon before decreasing trend begins
this evening as high pressure begins to build over the lake.
Northwest flow will continue however into Sunday. Although wind
speeds should be below small craft criteria expect nearshore waters
to be choppy through Saturday night. Winds light and variable
Sunday night and Monday before turning southeast Tuesday ahead of
low pressure developing in the Central Plains.
&&
Cle watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...none.
PA...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EDT Saturday for lez146>149.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for lez142>145.
&&
$$
Synopsis...oudeman
near term...oudeman
short term...oudeman
long term...tk
aviation...tk
marine...tk
