Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
1155 am EDT Thursday Apr 17 2014
low pressure moving into Wisconsin this morning will continue
northeast...eventually reaching Quebec on Friday. A weak cold
front southwest from the low will move across the area Friday
afternoon and evening. High pressure will follow on Saturday.
The high will move east and allow a warm front to lift northeast
across the area Sunday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
main adjustment to the forecast with this update was to increase
winds along the NE Lakeshore...especially up towards Erie PA where
we are seeing downsloping winds gusting to 35 miles per hour this morning.
These should be peaking now and starting to decrease later this
morning. Skies are mostly sunny this morning and made some minor
adjustments to cloud cover with cirrus still spreading back into
Northwest Ohio later today.
Original...high pressure over New England and dry air in the Ohio
Valley will keep plenty of sunshine across the region today.
Western counties will likely see more filtered sun through the
afternoon as moisture to our west approaches...however most will
go north of the area. Highs generally 58 to 62.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
tonight low pressure moves northeast across the central Great
Lakes. The cold front extending southwest from the low will move
into Northwest Ohio in the morning Friday and drift southeast
across the area during the day. As the low continues to pull
northeast...low level forcing along the front will weaken and
moisture gets stretched. Also aloft...main short wave moves east
of the area in the afternoon. Guidance probability of precipitation generally around 20 on
the GFS and 30 to 40 on the NAM. Will go with 30 to 40 probability of precipitation across
the north and 20 to 30 south. Friday night high pressure and drier
air build in behind the front. Saturdays highs should be 4 to 6
degrees lower than Friday with 850mb temperatures dropping a few degrees
behind the front. Onshore flow wont help northeast as well. Sunday
however the high will drift east and open up a south-southwest flow across the
area with 850mb temperatures rising to +8 to 10c. Boosted temperatures a couple
degrees over guidance with highs around 70. Continued fair weather
Long term /Monday through Wednesday/...
warming trend continues for the extended forecast with above normal
temperatures to start the work week. Models a little slower with
the cold front early next week. Both models hold cold front back
until Monday night...with the GFS just a tad slower than the European model (ecmwf).
Still enough doubt in my mind that left chance probability of precipitation going for Monday
night. After that Canadian high pressure builds in from the
northwest allowing for a dry but gradual cool down.
Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions will continue for the taf period. A warm front
will move north of the region during the afternoon. The gusty
south winds will slowly decrease during the afternoon. Some cirrus will
continue to increase through tonight. A weak cold front will be
approaching on Friday. Some stratocumulus will be spreading in
from the northwest after daybreak Friday. Some widely scattered
showers may also occur.
Outlook...non VFR is possible Monday night into Tuesday.
will continue Small Craft Advisory until 10 am as winds still in the
10 to 20 knot range. By late morning the east winds will shift to
the south as high pressure centered over New England shifts to the
east. Models continue to move a weak cold front through on Friday.
The winds and waves will be marginal for a possible Small Craft
Advisory Friday night. This will have to be watched.