Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
1152 PM EST Tuesday Jan 27 2015
high pressure will continue to build in from the west tonight and
move east on Wednesday. A low pressure system will move across
Michigan on Thursday dragging a cold front across the region. Arctic
high pressure will build across the Great Lakes Friday. Another
low pressure system will affect the area Sunday into Monday.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
the flurries should just about be gone as the clouds in the east
continue to break. Western areas will remain mostly clear
overnight. Temperatures have not dropped off as fast as expected. Have
raised temperatures overnight to come more into line with neighboring
offices. Still expect a few areas to get subzero.
Previous...high pressure is building in from the west...however...until the
high gets over the area some flurries or light snow showers will
continue east of cle into the evening. Clouds will decrease
tonight and with light winds and a somewhat fresh snow cover lows
will be below guidance. At this time wind chills will just get
close to -10f for an advisory...will continue to mention it in the
hazardous weather outlook.
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday night/...
high pressure will be over the area to start on Wednesday and
then move east. Some cirrus will be around on Wednesday...mostly
sunny to partly cloudy will work. Temperatures will slowly rise
Wednesday night or be steady as the next system works toward the
area. Some precipitation will be sneaking into Northwest Ohio late
Wednesday night and then spread east on Thursday and then decrease
after the front moves through late Thursday. The precipitation
type on Thursday is tough. With the low moving just north of the
area we will get into the warm advection. Precipitation amounts
should be less than a quarter inch. With it being a mix that
should help from being too bad but if we get freezing rain an
advisory will be needed. Plenty of cold air will flow in behind
this front. Some concern for lake effect but most models are
really dry so the lake effect amounts of snow may not be that
high. This will have to be watched. For Friday and Friday night
most areas will be dry except the snow belt.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
models continue to develop Texas low that will likely bring snow to
the area on Sunday as it tracks across the area. Still some
uncertainty on the exact track and timing but GFS moves the low
across central Ohio during the day Sunday...while the European model (ecmwf) tracks
the low along the Ohio River. There is potential for significant
snow...but this far out still doubts as the precise track and timing
of the low. Low will be well east of the area by daybreak Monday
but expect lake effect snow showers to develop across the snowbelt.
The weekend snow will be followed by another blast of Arctic air on
Monday as both models plunge the 850mb temperatures to -20c (or colder).
But with progressive pattern temperatures moderate by middle week.
Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
a couple bands of clouds extending from Lake Erie south through
the Cleveland and Akron Canton areas and another band through Erie
Pennsylvania will gradually shift to the east and dissipate.
Expecting mainly clear skies through the day tomorrow. Some high
clouds will spread into the area from west to east by the end of
the period. Wind flow will shift to southerly and increase in
speed tomorrow evening.
Outlook...non-VFR returns on Thursday in widespread snow...but
may begin as a short period of freezing Rain. Lake effect snow
showers will continue in the east Friday. More accumulating snow
is expected late Sunday into Sunday night.
light and variable winds tonight as high pressure moves across the
lake. An increasing southerly return flow will develop Wednesday
night and increase to about 15 to 25 knots Thursday. Winds shift to
northwest and could approach 30 knots Thursday night into Friday as
the colder air moves over the lake. These stronger winds could lead
to ice Floe movement making ice related conditions on the lake
hazardous. High pressure will move over the lake again on Saturday.