Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
111 am EDT Sat Sep 5 2015
an upper level disturbance over the central Great Lakes will
weaken into Sunday. A broad area of high pressure at the surface
and aloft from the Midwest to eastern Canada will remain nearly
stationary through Labor Day.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
temperatures have already fallen into the lower to middle 70s and
will continue to fall into the middle 60s overnight. Most areas will
be mostly cloudy due primarily from debris clouds. Can't rule out
some isolated convection overnight as the upper low over Michigan
could once again send some energy diving into the region. With
airmass warm and humid it has proven it doesn't take a strong
trigger for more activity. Can't rule out some patchy fog
overnight and towards daybreak.
Short term /6 am this morning through Monday night/...
the upper level low will slowly weaken into early Sunday. Still
may see some isolated/scattered convection along the lake breeze
and with some localized convergence over the hills. By Monday it
appears that the threat of thunderstorms will be minimal and do
not plan to mention the convection. It will continue to be hot for
this time of year with highs in the upper 80s anticipated.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
overall upper level pattern is changing once again and not
particularly in our favor if one likes warm weather. Upper level
ridge is expected to begin to break down allowing upper level flow
to trend toward more zonal flow across the lower 48. A trough will
move southeast out of southwest Canada and begin to dig into the
eastern United States by the end of the week.
This pattern shaping up will send a cold front southeast across the
forecast area Tuesday and become nearly stationary through
Wednesday. Eventually the front will begin to shift southeast and
move out of the area. Low pressure will develop and move east
through the central Great Lakes region forcing yet another cold
front east across the region Thursday night. Much cooler air will
follow the secondary cold front.
First front will bring with it some limited moisture and a chance
for showers and thunderstorms. Then...drier air will push east ahead
of the low pressure system and reinforcing cold front ending the
threat for precipitation. So will keep things dry at the end of the
Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/...
little change in weather pattern. Areas of MVFR br toward
daybreak with isolated convection this afternoon. Do not think
there will be as much convection this afternoon as ydy.
Outlook...areas of non VFR each morning in fog and haze.
Lake Erie looks like it will be rather quiet for the next
several days. Not expecting any air mass changes through at least
Tuesday so much of the same. Possibility for scattered showers and
thunderstorms expect tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise...trying to
quiet the thunderstorm activity down over the latter part of the
Holiday weekend. No small craft advisories expected through the