Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
649 PM EST Friday Dec 26 2014
high pressure over the region will move east. A cold front
will move across the forecast area late Saturday. High pressure
will build over the region again on Sunday.
Near term /through Saturday/...
minor adjustments for the early evening forecast update...slight pop
and sky changes later tonight into Saturday to line up better with
surrounding forecast offices...but nothing significant to the text
Original "tonight" discussion...
high pressure will remain in control of the weather overnight.
Some high clouds may begin to stream into the area as an approaching
cold front moves closer to the region. There is a slight
possibility a few showers will move into Northwest Ohio towards dawn
but I expect the vast majority of the forecast area to remain dry.
Most of the precipitation will not move into the region until after
12z Saturday. Temperatures overnight will remain mild with middle to
upper 30s expected for most areas.
Short term /Saturday night through Monday night/...
a cold front will move the forecast area on Saturday. The 12z
models show a weak surface wave developing on the front early
Saturday. This wave will move west of the forecast area Saturday
morning. Scattered showers will accompany the front as it moves
across the County Warning Area. The front is not moving
particularly fast so a threat of showers will exist most of Saturday
afternoon and evening. The best chance for rain will be Saturday
evening 00z-06z sun. Showers will be widespread but the moisture is
somewhat limited. I do not expect a lot of quantitative precipitation forecast with the system.
Cold air advection behind the front will usher cooler air into the
region for Saturday. 850 temperatures may cool fast enough early Sunday
to create a brief mix of rain and snow over parts of NE Ohio and northwest
PA. Little or no snow accumulation is expected.
High pressure will build back into the area Sunday afternoon
bringing an end to the precipitation. High pressure will remain in
control of the weather through Monday. A weak backdoor cold front
will move across Lake Erie late Monday night into Tuesday. This
front may bring a few scattered snow showers but I do not expect
widespread or intense precipitation with this system.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
a high pressure ridge begins to build across the area on Tuesday and
basically continues to position itself over the forecast area through
Thursday. There could be some lake effect snow showers Tuesday and
Wednesday but mostly all of the snow showers should be confined to
our traditional snow belt areas. Looks like we might be able to
squeeze out another day or two Thursday and Friday with little or no
precipitation. By late Friday an approaching storm system will bring
some precipitation to the area. For our extended period Tuesday
through Thursday...temperatures probably below normal for this time
Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/...
latest satellite data shows some lower clouds around 2500 feet
headed our way this evening. Expecting this ceiling to reach
western portions of the area around 06z and spread east over the
next few hours after that. Bulk of rain really does not arrive
until tomorrow afternoon. Ceilings and visibilities will lower
even further to below 1000 feet. Winds should remain out of the
south through the period.
Outlook...non-VFR late Saturday night through Sunday. Non-VFR
mainly over NE Ohio/northwest PA Monday...then possibly over the entire
area again Tuesday.
high pressure will give way to an approaching cold front on
Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory will most likely be needed behind
the cold front mainly on the east end probably Saturday night. It
will be short lived as a high pressure ridge builds into the area
very quickly on Sunday. The high pressure ridge will remain over
the lake through Tuesday night before shifting slowly south. As
this happens the westerly winds will pick up as it might prompt
the need for a Small Craft Advisory. &&
long term...British Columbia