Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
253 am EDT sun Jul 5 2015
weak high pressure over the area will move east today. This will
allow a weak disturbance in the Tennessee Valley to move north
into eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania tonight and Monday.
Tuesday a cold front will pass through the area then stall across
Near term /through today/...
a weak disturbance over the Tennessee Valley will begin to bring
moisture into the area today as it drifts northeast. Infrared satellite
shows middle/high clouds already moving into our southern counties.
Still expect plenty of sun today but this afternoon clouds will be
thickening especially east. Highs should reach the lower 80s.
Short term /tonight through Wednesday night/...
the NAM and GFS continue to bring moisture associated with the
Tennessee Valley disturbance into the eastern half of the area
tonight. The GFS is the faster of the two models suggesting a
chance of rain for the east overnight while the NAM progression
would favor a dry night. For now will bring clouds in but will
hold off probability of precipitation until Monday. For Monday will have chance probability of precipitation east
and dry west. Monday night the disturbance pulls east as a cold
front approaches from the west-northwest. GFS again faster than the NAM with
the GFS showing the front east of Lake Michigan while the NAM has
it from northern lower Michigan southwest to near Chicago. Believe we get
through Monday night mostly dry but...despite timing differences
both models bring the front into the area Tuesday. Will continue
with likely probability of precipitation for the west in the morning and most areas likely
in the afternoon. Will continue with high chance to likely Tuesday
night. Wednesday should begin mostly dry but during the afternoon
the GFS shows a surface low moving east out of the Central Plains
into southern Illinois. This lifts the front back into the area along
with deep moisture affecting mainly the southwestern counties. Will cover
with chance probability of precipitation. Trend continues into Wednesday night and will
have chance probability of precipitation spreading northeast accordingly. Highs near to
slightly above normal through Tuesday. Wednesday highs in the 70s.
Long term /Thursday through Saturday/...
wet pattern returns for the period as stalled front looks to
stay near the area while upper ridge to the south and upper trough
over the lakes battle for control. Will keep good chance for
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain going through the period. Airmass shows increasing temperatures at
850 mb so warming trend should occur.
Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
VFR conditions expected to continue through the taf period with
light winds. Temperature/dewpoint spread at yng close enough to allow to
some fog to form before sunrise and higher clouds arrive from the
south. Haze showing up at cak and cle so will cover with a tempo.
This could be due to smoke from fires in the west and Alaska or
from leftover smoke from evening fireworks. Fog will quickly burn
off by 13 to 14z. Rest of the day will see high clouds overspread
the area. Some middle clouds may start to arrive by midnight tonight
around cak and yng.
Lake breeze will develop along the Lakeshore by midday and should
last until about 02z.
Outlook...non VFR conditions possible Tuesday into Wednesday in showers and
light winds with afternoon lakebreeze today. South flow will
increase Monday and Monday night to 10 to 20 knots ahead of cold front
that will cross the lake Tuesday evening turning winds northwest Tuesday night
then diminishing and becoming light north to NE on Wednesday as high
pressure moves over the lake. Light winds continue on Thursday.