Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
321 am EDT Thursday may 7 2015
a warm front across central Ohio will drift north over the local
area today as weak high pressure builds over the Middle Atlantic
States. The weak high pressure will remain nearly stationary into
Friday. A frontal system will approach the region from the
northwest over the weekend and will likely stall near Lake Erie.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
it remains fairly quiet this morning with a lot less fog than
there was this time yesterday. 11u-3.9u satellite continues to
show some stratus developing over central PA. It appears this
lower cloud is going to make a run for Crawford and Erie counties
this morning. A period of ceilings is possible this morning...
especially across the eastern half of those two counties.
Elsewhere skies will generally be mostly sunny this morning.
Surface dewpoints will continue to creep up today as the surface
warm front lifts north across the area. As a result we will likely
see some cumulus develop this afternoon. Forcing with the front
will be very weak so comfortable going with a dry forecast today.
Temperatures should be a little more straight forward than they were
Wednesday as most areas will see southerly flow. A lake breeze
will develop later in the afternoon along immediate Lakeshore but
temperatures should make it well into the 70s before that happens.
Suspect there will be some patchy fog this morning so have added
to the forecast.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
a warm and increasingly humid airmass is expected to linger over
the area during the period. We will eventually see some
precipitation but tough to tell when. The models seem to be
suffering from some convective feedback so confidence on timing
isn't very high. All of the area should remain dry through Friday
evening but after that expect precipitation chances to gradually increase
from west to east. Best chances will likely come Saturday night
into Sunday as a frontal system approaches from the northwest. It
is becoming increasingly likely that this front will stall just to
the north of the area as an area of low pressure develops over the
northern plains. This will help maintain the warm and humid
airmass over the area through Sunday night which means we will
need to keep a mention of precipitation going. Surface dewpoints will be
in the 60s most of the weekend so it's going to feel more like middle
Summer than early may. It appears the southerly gradient will be
strong enough to keep the lake breeze away from all but the
immediate Lakeshore. Most of forecast area will see several days of
low to middle 80s for highs. This is about 15 degrees above normal.
Long term /Monday through Wednesday/...
models continue to move surface low along stalled boundary...across
the Central Lakes late Monday into Tuesday. Bumped probability of precipitation to likely
since this is a continuing trend. This far out appears best chance
for convection would be Monday afternoon into the overnight hours.
Both models have the cold front through the area Tuesday morning
with the low drifting across the Great Lakes and moving off the New
England coast Wednesday. Cooler temperatures behind the front.
Significant difference between the 2 models. By Wednesday evening
the GFS drops the 850mb temperatures to -4c while the European model (ecmwf) is 8 degrees
warmer with a +4c. For the forecast tried to split the difference
between the 2 for now. Dry conditions return for Wednesday and
Thursday as high pressure builds over the area from the west.
Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/...
VFR conditions will give way to areas of IFR overnight. Worst
will again be along the Lakeshore. Do not expect the stratus and
br to be as widespread or dense as last night. Conditions should
improve to VFR again by middle morning. Isolated thunderstorms and rain not out of the
question this afternoon.
Outlook...early morning br possible over the next several days. Non
VFR possible in showers as a front approaches late Saturday and
Sunday. Non VFR as well on Monday with the front.
quiet conditions on the lake expected to continue through the
weekend as high pressure remains over the lake. Generally light and
variable winds should continue into Tuesday when the next system
moves across the lakes.