Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
757 am EDT Tuesday Mar 11 2014
a weakening cold front will sag across the area today. This front
will stall over central or southern Ohio this evening and become
the path for low pressure to move along late tonight into
Wednesday. High pressure will build in on Thursday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
only minor changes to hourly temperatures have been made.
a weakening cold front will sag across the area today. This
should provide for a cooler day than yesterday. However the region
is starting rather warm so we have gone slightly higher than
guidance highs. Still looks like most of the region will be near
or above 50...warmest across the south. As the flow comes off of
Lake Erie this afternoon temperatures will likely fall. We will
need to monitor for some fog development as the chilled air from
the ice covered lake moves onshore.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/...
low pressure will move near the Ohio River valley tonight into
Wednesday. This will bring rain into the region overnight. Since
the models are slightly further north with the low track it
appears the rain may persist into Wednesday morning from the
central County Warning Area into northwest PA. This may end up cutting
into the snowfall amounts. We have nudged the heavier snow a bit
further north with this forecast package but have not changed the
watch area at this time. The reason for leaving it a watch is that
there is still uncertainty in the track of the low. There are
still a couple solutions that move the track even further north.
The main concerns for the County Warning Area are the northwest and NE
corners. These two areas have the best shot at seeing the
significant snow...especially with an even further north wobble of
the track. After an area changes over to snow late tonight into
Wednesday there will likely be a quick burst with 2 to 4 inches
rapidly accumulating. This may impact the evening commute from
Cleveland to Mansfield and locations to the east. We will then see
how much lake effect snow can occur in the wake of the low. Winds
will be gusty in the wake of the low and could exceed 40 miles per hour at
As the snow tapers off the cold air will continue to filter into
the area with lows dipping into the single digits by Thursday
morning. Thursday will be a cold day with lake effect snow showers
for NE Ohio into northwest PA. As high pressure slides east of the area
on Friday we will have increasing southwesterly flow. Any snowpack
will slow the warming on Friday but it still appears many
locations will be into the 40s. However the upper 30s may occur
across Northwest Ohio and northwest PA if the heavier snow occurs.
Long term /Saturday through Monday/...
a cold front will push south across the area on Saturday with a
chance of lake effect rain/snow showers...mainly in the snowbelt as
the trough shifts through. The airmass will dry out as high pressure
builds over the central Great Lakes on Sunday with north to
northeast flow resulting in below normal temperatures to end the
Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/...
generally VFR conditions through 03z with aviation conditions
deterioriating overnight and into Wednesday with an approaching snow
storm. Visibilities may be restricted through about 14z in br with
visibilities dropping as low as 2 miles. Otherwise MVFR ceilings
will develop by late evening as low pressure over the plains
approaches the region. Precipitation will begin as rain all
areas...briefly transitioning to freezing rain before an eventual
change over to snow. Models still showing some spread with the
degree of warm air during the early part of the storm which will
have an effect on precipitation type. Northwest Ohio will see the
transition to snow towards 11z...cle towards 16z...as colder air
gets pulled south. A period of heavy snow is expected immediately
following the transition. IFR all areas on Wednesday.
Winds will be southwest to start the day...shifting to north this
afternoon and northeast overnight. Winds will become strong on Wednesday
with speeds of 15-28 knots by midday. Gusts may reach 35 knots.
Outlook...IFR Wednesday...improving to MVFR Wednesday night. Night
especially in the snow belt. Non VFR possible Friday night into
southwest winds of 10 to 20 knots will decrease through midday then
shift to the north by this evening. Northerly winds will undergo
rapid strengthening from late tonight into Wednesday as low pressure
deepens as it tracks through the Ohio Valley. The gradient really
tightens up over the southern lakes region between the system to the
south and high pressure strengthening over Lake Superior. A gale
watch has been issued for the whole lake for Wednesday with 35-40
knot gales expected. Gusts to 50 knots will be possible and some
movement of the ice sheet is expected.
Winds will drop off considerably by Thursday as high pressure builds
east across the region. Southwesterly winds near 20 knots will
develop on Friday ahead of low pressure passing north of the lakes.
The associated cold front will push south across the lake on
flow into the rivers will continue again today with some snow
melt flowing into a few of the area rivers. We are continuing to
monitor an ice jam along the chagrin river near Willoughby. If it
continues to rise we may need to issue an areal Flood Warning. If
you live near the chagrin take any precautions needed to protect
Otherwise there will be a period of rain tonight into Wednesday
morning that will provide additional flow to all of the rivers.
Any ice jams will need to be monitored closely. Law enforcement
and emergency management from counties with rivers that flow into
Lake Erie will be needed to help with warning decisions.
Another concern that could develop is the strong winds on the west
side of the low on Wednesday. The strong northerly winds may bring
significant amounts of ice on Lake Erie back into the mouth of the
rivers and could add to the ice jam problems.
Ohio...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Wednesday
night for ohz010>014-089.
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through late
Wednesday night for ohz020>023-029>031.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for ohz027-028-036-037.
PA...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Wednesday
night for paz001>003.
Marine...gale watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening