Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
643 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015
high pressure over New England will weaken by Friday to
allow a cold front to drop south across the area. High pressure
north of Lake Superior will slowly move into New England by Sunday.
Low pressure will slowly move east across southern Canada pulling a
series of weak cold fronts across Ohio early next week.
Near term /through Thursday/...
updated...removed slight chance that was in the southeast
counties. Made minor changes to temperature and sky grids based on
Original...winds shifting to southeast tonight will allow moisture with
an upper low over the southeast to advect into the area. With a lack of
dynamics don't see much more than a few sprinkles occurring so
will keep probability of precipitation low and quantitative precipitation forecast at zero. Temperatures should be a little
warmer with the clouds and southeast winds.
Short term /Thursday night through Saturday night/...
will be enough daytime heating on Thursday to act on the lower level
moisture to produce some scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain in the afternoon. The threat
for convection should lessen with sunset cooling by late Thursday evening.
Highs on Thursday should warm even more with readings expected to top out
from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
An upper short wave approaching the area from the northwest on Friday will cause a
surface cold front to push southeast across the County Warning Area. This will act as a
focus to trigger more numerous shra/tsra. The models have backed off
on trying to develop a wave along the front so will allow probability of precipitation to
taper off north to south late in the day Friday and Friday night. Could
still be some lingering light rain showers in the south on Sat. NE winds on
Sat will lead to a cooler day with highs mostly in the 70s although
the Lakeshore counties will probably only see upper 60s closer to
Will continue to hold out for dry conditions Sat night as the high
to the NE should have enough of a dominant influence.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
models in reasonable
agreement for Sunday with high pressure over the eastern lakes on
Sunday. After that trends are the same but the GFS continues to be
faster with the next system than the European model (ecmwf). High moves off the New
England coast late Sunday allowing low pressure system to move into
Central Lakes dragging next cold front across the area. Although
GFS a little faster...both models move the front east of the
forecast area Monday morning.
Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
high pressure centered over New England will gradually shift east
allowing east-NE flow to turn to the south. This will allow VFR/MVFR
stratus deck to move over the area overnight.
Outlook...non VFR possible at times in scattered showers/thunderstorms
Friday...then with the passage of a cold front in the east on
Saturday. Early morning MVFR visibilities also possible.
winds shift to the south overnight and will remain from
the south through Friday. Winds will increase to 2 to 4 feet
Saturday as winds turn to the northeast and increase to 10 to 15
knots. If winds a little stronger a Small Craft Advisory may be
needed. Conditions improve on Sunday as high pressure builds over
the lake. Models coming into better agreement moving the next front
across Lake Erie Sunday night.