Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
727 am EDT Friday Mar 27 2015
Arctic high pressure will drop slowly southeast from the plains
today reaching the Ohio Valley on Saturday. Another cold front
will cross the region Sunday night and then high pressure will
move through Monday night and another weather system will affect
the area on Tuesday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
some flurries were occurring this morning and then the better
chance of snow showers will be this afternoon. Adjusted the sky
cover a little over Northwest Ohio...they could have some breaks this
For the afternoon a trough aloft will move through and this will cause
a chance of snow showers across the entire forecast area with the
best chance over snow belt as the moisture will be highest there and
the lake and 850 mb temperature difference will be near 14c by dark
and it gets colder this evening. The snow will struggle to
accumulate during the afternoon with the late March sun angle.
Temperatures will be steady or slowly fall from the daybreak
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
the moisture will be highest early this evening so this will be the
best chance for a light snow accumulation over the snow belt...an
inch or two. The models have been hinting at some accumulating snow
over parts of Northwest Ohio with a flow off of Lake Huron. Kept higher
probability of precipitation but still kept the snow accumulation under an inch.
The threat of snow showers will decrease rapidly late tonight as the
ridge and drier air moves in. Some light snow showers could linger
Saturday morning over northwest PA as the high moves in. Elsewhere Saturday
will be dry with sunshine.
The forecast for Sunday through Monday night is not clear
cut...mainly with regard to timing and precipitation type. No major
storms are expected. For Sunday kept the chance mainly over Northwest Ohio
during the afternoon. For Sunday night as a front moves through many
of the models try to indicate the best chance for precipitation will
be early. The European model (ecmwf) which is slower has the threat all night.
Because of that did not put in any timing.
For Monday most of the models are trying to indicate a dry day. Some
question about this...so for the timing being kept low chance probability of precipitation
over NE Ohio and northwest PA. Dry Monday night as we wait for the next
Long term /Tuesday through Thursday/...
an upper level ridge will be building in from the west Tuesday and
Wednesday and will remain amplified as it hits the East Coast. The
amplification of the ridge is in response to the deepening trough
ahead of the ridge and vigorous low pressure system aloft following
A fast moving weak low pressure system and associated positive
vorticity maximum will move quickly southeast across the forecast
area on Tuesday. Moisture will be compact with this feature but
should be enough to spread rain into the area Tuesday and then exit
to the east Tuesday night. Surface low pressure is prognosticated to move
east across the southern tier of Canada during the latter half of
the forecast period and will force a warm front across the region.
The forecast area will remain in the warm sector as a cold front
stalls just west of the forecast area by Thursday night. The warm
front will likely bring another round of showers to the area into
Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
some light flurries are expected at this time at Cleveland and
Erie. More activity should slide southeast into the Erie area and
northeast Ohio. Otherwise...some MVFR ceilings will move south
with the cold front this morning and further improving conditions this
afternoon into the evening. The exception will be Erie where
improving conditions can be expected later tonight.
Outlook...non VFR lingering across far NE Ohio/northwest PA into
Saturday. Areas of non VFR possible late Sunday into Monday and
winds out of the northwest will diminish by this evening over the
lake and remain fairly light through Saturday night. A southwest
flow will develop on Sunday and increase to 15 to 20 knots and then
diminish again by Monday and go light and variable through Monday
night. Westerly flow will develop on Tuesday. So far not expecting
nothing strong through this forecast period.