Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
415 am EST Thursday Mar 5 2015
cold high pressure will build across the region from the northern
plains today. The high will be pushed southward this weekend as
disturbances and weak cold fronts push across the Great Lakes
region. High pressure strengthens across the East Coast and Ohio
Valley early next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
band of light snow has been holding a steady position just outside
of our area all night. A bit of light snow or a flurry is possible
early this morning from Marion through Medina and to Ashtabula.
Nothing in the way of accumulation other than maybe a coating for
Millersburg to Canton to Youngstown. The trend by afternoon will
be for this to be pulling away as the upper trough shoves that
system east. Expecting the high clouds to pull out too and any
remaining lower clouds to dissipate with the arrival of much
drier air. Temperatures will be tricky. With cold airmass in place
and a half days Worth of cloud cover...they will struggle. Some
places may fall slowly through the day and other will just hold
steady. Basically temperatures not too far from what they are this
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
quiet night tonight with high pressure overhead and winds that
will be diminishing. Once again will have a night with many
locations getting below zero and likely breaking more daily
records. By morning with the center of the high just to our south
any light wind will be southerly and so have not allowed for
cle/mfd and points west to get too far below zero. Where the wind
remains calm in the typically colder spots across the east...have
brought them down to 5 or 8 degrees below zero. The wind will be
too light for any wind chill advisories.
Quiet again Friday. Will get some warming and highs will get to
near 20/lower 20s late in the day. That push of relatively warm
air continues Friday night in advance of a clipper coming across
the Great Lakes. Light snow chances in advance of this primarily
across northeast Ohio/northwest PA on Saturday and Saturday night...and
to some extent Sunday in its wake. Temperatures will be reaching
near the freezing mark both Saturday and Sunday with 20s at night.
A wet inch or two is possible.
Long term /Monday through Wednesday/...
a warming trend with snow melt will continue. At this time through
at least Wednesday and probably beyond...no significant amounts of
precipitation are expected. The snow water equivalents across the
forecast area are variable. They range from 1 to 3 inches over Northwest
Ohio to 2 to 6 inches over NE Ohio and northwest PA. Even with just some snow
melt the ice will start to breakup and move on many rivers and
streams. Some ice jams may form. Since the warmup will not be
extreme most ice jams that form may not be significant. This
situation will be monitored.
In the meantime...some lingering precipitation could be occurring on
Monday especially over NE Ohio and northwest PA as a weak front move through.
After that high pressure builds in for Monday night and Tuesday and
then the high starts moving toward the southeast on Wednesday. Used a blend
of guidance and local schemes for the temperature forecast.
Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/...
Arctic cold front is pushing south across the area at this time.
Drier air is also working into the region pushing the leftover
precipitation to the south as well along the southern tier.
Ceilings and visibilities should remain VFR through the forecast
period. Winds should also gradually diminish overnight. Expecting
some clearing to work into the extreme northern areas by the end
of the forecast period.
Outlook...non VFR ceilings returning Saturday through Sunday.
not expecting gale force winds through the middle of next week.
The Arctic cold front moved through Wednesday evening and the gusty
winds associated with the cold advection were decreasing. A ridge
will be building in from the west through tonight and then the ridge
will sink south Friday night as several weak fronts affect the area
over the weekend and on Monday. On Sunday in the cold advection the
sustained winds could be in the 20 to 30 knot range. For early next
week the ridge will build back into the Ohio Valley and that will
help the winds decrease.