Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
145 PM EDT Friday Mar 14 2014
a warm front will lift across the area today. A clipper system
will move across the northern lakes tonight...dragging a cold front
across the area.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
update...removed small probability of precipitation east late...otherwise no changes.
models continue to be in good agreement lifting warm front...now
across the middle Mississippi Valley...across the area today. This
will push temperatures into the 50s in most locations. The band of
warm advection clouds shrouding northeast Ohio and northwest PA will
move east of the area toward daybreak...leading to plenty of
sunshine across the forecast area for most of the day.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
but the warm up will be short lived. Clipper system near Lake
Superior will move across the northern lakes dragging another cold
front across the area. Very dry system but models squeeze out a few
hundredths of quantitative precipitation forecast across NE Ohio/northwest PA this evening as lift from
front itself is aided by strong low level jet maximum. The front and
jet maximum move east of the forecast area by 06z taking most of precipitation
with it. Expect most precipitation to fall as rain based on the timing of
A secondary cold push arrives early Saturday morning setting up the
potential for some lake enhance snow showers across snowbelt east of
Cleveland as the 850mb temperatures dip to -12c. Should be a relatively short
lived and uneventful event.
Potential for another synoptic snow event is Sunday night into
Monday. NAM tracks low across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley Sunday
night into Monday...while the GFS and European model (ecmwf) continues to track the
low much further south. For now will go with the GFS/European model (ecmwf)
solutions and go likely snow in the extreme southeast portion of the
forecast area with just chance probability of precipitation elsewhere.
Long term /Tuesday through Thursday/...
significant models differences persist during the long term. Most
of the differences concern the timing and movement of the low
approaching the region next Tuesday. Both the 00z European model (ecmwf) and GFS are
slower than the earlier runs with the European model (ecmwf) showing a further north
low track. If either solution is close to being right...it will be
sometime early Wednesday before precipitation should arrive. Will dry out
the forecast till late Tuesday night. It appear best chances for
rain will come on Wednesday as the low finally arrives. Some
question as to precipitation type Wednesday night...but am thinking mainly
rain for the time being. The low will be slow to move off to the NE
on Thursday so will need to hang on to at least chance precipitation
chances. Temperatures will average within a couple of degrees of normal
during the period.
Aviation /18z Friday through Wednesday/...
ceilings will slowly lower into the evening as a cold front
approaches. The front will move across the region from west to
east through 09z with some light precipitation possible ahead of
and just in its wake. It appears it will be liquid through around
05z then transition over to some light snow. The light snow could
be enhanced across NE Ohio and northwest PA with flow off of Lake Erie. For
now will only mention MVFR conditions in the snow across the
eastern portion of the County Warning Area...generally east of
kcgf to kcak line. Any patches of MVFR across the east should lift
by late Saturday morning.
Otherwise gusty southwest winds will continue into the evening.
The thicker high level cloud cover over the region has been
enough to help limit mixing. Expect this trend to continue with
gusts remaining under 30 knots at most locations. There is a slim
chance that locations near the Lakeshore could gust to 35 knots.
Winds will decrease slightly in the wake of the front but will
become westerly. Gusts should increase again on Saturday but
should be under 25 knots.
Outlook...non VFR possible Sunday...mainly south in light snow.
S to SW flow will increase today but peak winds should top out
around 30 knots. Anything higher will be tough to get given the
warm air advection pattern expected. A cold front will cross the
lake tonight with the flow becoming westerly. High pressure will
build over the lake from the northwest then north over the weekend.
Mainly north to NE flow is expected into Monday. A strong low will pass
to the southeast on Monday but precipitation from the low should remain south of
the lake. The flow will become easterly as the low passes. Another
strong low will approach from the SW on Tuesday helping to maintain
the easterly flow.