Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
1052 PM EDT Thursday Mar 26 2015
Arctic high pressure will drop slowly southeast from the Canadian
plains tonight reaching the Ohio Valley on Saturday. Another cold
front will cross the region Sunday night before high pressure
moves in Tuesday.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
update...changed tonight to overnight. Also made small changes to
sky southwest in grids to decrease cloud cover.
Original...low pressure continues to move up the East Coast
pulling moisture eastward with it. There is still some light
rain/snow across the eastern half of the County Warning Area but
this should continue to erode and dissipate as it moves eastward.
We will still have to await an upper level trough that will dig
into the central Great Lakes by sunrise. Any snowfall
accumulations will be light but will likely result in a dusting to
maybe an inch over inland northwest PA.
There could be a few breaks in the cloud cover across the west
late in the evening. However with the approaching upper level
trough it seems as if the clouds will fill back in fairly fast.
This cloud cover will assist in keeping temperatures in the 20s
Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday night/...
the upper level trough will move across the region on Friday. There
may be an increase in the snow showers as the trough passes across
the region. Some moisture will likely be lifted off of Lake Erie
as the colder air spills across it. This will likely enhance the
snowfall across NE Ohio into northwest PA. Accumulations will generally
be an inch or so in the snowbelt with isolated totals of 3 or 4
inches possible across inland northwest PA. The snow showers are expected
to end Saturday morning across northwest PA as high pressure becomes the
dominant feature. This high will continue to control the region
into Saturday night. The next storm system will move into the
region by Sunday night with increasing chances of rain or snow.
Temperatures will continue to be below average through the short
term with highs mainly in the middle 20s to middle 30s. Warmer on Sunday
as southwesterly winds bring highs back into the 40s.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
the ridge will continue across the West Coast and The Rockies and
disturbances will continue to track from the US/Canadian border
across the Great Lakes and into New England through much of next
week. Somewhat more zonal flow is expected closer to the end of the
week. Temperatures will be seasonable with brief warmups ahead of
each system and only slight cool Downs on the backside. Timing of
these quicker moving systems difficult and will have periods of
light precipitation with each. Will have to go with rain/snow mix for now
as temperatures at times marginal.
Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/...
rain/snow has exited to the east and conditions are improving from
the west. Western areas have improved to VFR while IFR remains at
cak/yng/eri. Cak will likely see ceilings improve quickly while
yng/eri may only improve to MVFR tonight. A stronger cold front will
push south across the area late tonight with ceilings dropping back
into the mfvr range. This will bring a chance of snow showers to eri
and possibly cle...increasing ahead of an upper level trough on
Outlook...non VFR again Friday/Friday night...lingering across
far NE Ohio/northwest PA into Saturday. Areas of non VFR possible late
Sunday into Monday and again Tuesday.
high will be building across the Great Lakes through the first part
of the weekend...but a trough crossing the eastern lakes Friday
afternoon will allow for winds on Erie to increase from the north at
about 20 knots Friday night. The high shifts east Sunday and a
clipper Sunday night/Monday will bring winds up again. This time
possibly upwards of 30 knots...southwest and then west. Brief
ridging for Tuesday.