Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
741 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015
high pressure will remain over the region through
Sunday. A cold front will move through the Great Lakes Monday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
the current forecast appears to be on track. I will make
some minor adjustments to the cloud cover to account for the short
wave moving across the forecast area this morning.
Previous discussion... high pressure and dry air will continue to
build over the forecast area today. The models show two weak 500 mb
short waves moving through the ridge today. Infrared satellite image
shows high/middle clouds with the initial short wave over Michigan
which will move across the area this morning. The second short
wave will approach this afternoon. Some high and middle clouds could
occur with these disturbances but mostly sunny skies are expected.
Guidance temperatures appear to be reasonable and I will not stray
far from those values.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday night/...
high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern on
Sunday. A cold front will approach the forecast area on Monday.
This front will push across the region 12z-00z Monday. The models
indicate very limited moisture with the front. Any showers that
occur with the frontal passage will be widely scattered. The
current forecast has 20-30 percent precipitation chances Monday
and Monday night. I will not change the forecast as it appears to
be reasonable. A secondary front and cooler air will move into the
lower Great Lakes on Tuesday. Once again...moisture appears to be
limited with this system. However temperatures will be cool enough
to generate some lake effect showers. I will continue a low chance
of showers for the traditional lake effect areas through Tuesday
and Tuesday night. The 850mb thermal trough does not move east of
the area until 12z Wednesday. A few showers may linger Tuesday night and
very early Wednesday morning.
Long term /Wednesday through Friday/...
an upper level trough will develop across the Great Lakes region
during the extended forecast with temperatures trending cooler
towards the end of the week. A series of weak cold fronts will move
through the eastern Great Lakes but the coldest air will generally
set up to our east through Friday. This will keep temperatures
somewhat warmer in Northwest Ohio with more sun and cooler downwind of Lake
Erie with periods of lake effect clouds. Kept probability of precipitation on the low side
downwind of Lake Erie as moisture is not real impressive and models
struggling to resolve details and timing this far out. Can expect to
see an uptick in lake effect rain showers as the airmass cools into
Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
an area of VFR clouds near 3500 feet developed off Lake Erie
overnight and may bring broken clouds clouds to mfd for a couple
hours this morning. Otherwise VFR conditions with just some cirrus
expected through the taf cycle as high pressure moves overhead.
Winds will generally be 7 knots or less.
Outlook...another cold front will move across the area on Monday
night with non-VFR possible into Tuesday.
winds and waves will decrease quickly this morning as high pressure
builds south over the lake so the Small Craft Advisory will expire
at 4 am as scheduled. Winds will develop out of the south overnight
ahead of the next low pressure system approaching from the west and
increase to 15 to 20 knots by Sunday night. This system will push a
cold front south across the lake on Monday night. Will approach
small craft conditions again as waves build to near 4 feet on the
east half of the lake Monday night and Tuesday but a ridge quickly
builds in from the west so westerly winds will decrease through the
day on Tuesday.