Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
705 am EDT Friday Jul 3 2015
weak high pressure will remain over Lake Erie into
Sunday then shift eat Monday. A cold front will slowly move
southeast across the area late Tuesday then stall and remain over
the Ohio Valley the rest of next week.
Near term /through tonight/...
the upper trough axis will
be west of the County Warning Area into this evening. This fact combined with how
weak the high is over the lakes will likely allow enough overrunning
to take place for some rain showers to spread back into at least the
southern part of the County Warning Area by late today. Will put chance probability of precipitation back into
the forecast for later today and beef up the cloud cover more.
Airmass is not overly unstable but still could be some isolated
thunder in the far south.
Highs should run 75 to 80 this afternoon but some immediate
Lakeshore areas could hold up only in the lower 70s.
Short term /Saturday through Monday night/...
discussion above...tonight's forecast will start out with chances
for rain showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorms and rain in the far S and southeast. As the
upper trough axis works east-southeast to be near the Ohio/PA line by 12z the
threat for rain will shift east-southeast and should just be in the extreme
east by Sat morning but the models differ some on how far to the
east the back edge will be by 12z so will leave a slight chance in the
east Sat morning.
Another upper short wave drops southeast across the East Part of the snowbelt by
daybreak sun. Moisture generally lacking but models do show some
light rain scattered just north of Lake Erie so will show a slight
increase in probability of precipitation for this. The models differ on how much moisture
around 850 mb will be over the area sun for some widely scattered
convection to develop. Will increase the probability of precipitation some but not enough
for precipitation to be mentioned yet.
Upper ridging moves in Sun night and should be over the area Monday to
keep a cap on convective development. Temperatures should finally warm a
little above normal for Monday due to the upper ridge and winds from
the south. Increasing south winds ahead of an approaching cold front
should moisten the lower levels enough for possible convection to
spread into the west toward daybreak Tuesday so will place small chance
probability of precipitation there late Monday night.
Long term /Tuesday through Thursday/...
the long term begins on
Tuesday with the GFS and European model (ecmwf) showing a cold front poised just to
our northwest. Moisture from the system will be moving into the
northwest during the morning. This deep moisture fills in during
the day and remains in place overnight as the slow moving front
moves slowly southeast through Northern Ohio. The front will remain
in the area Thursday. Will have chance probability of precipitation through the long term
for showers and thunderstorms. Best chances likely Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday. Temperatures largely seasonal.
Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
high pressure will continue across the Great Lakes...Northern Ohio and
northwestern PA today however low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley
could bring a late day shower to southeastern terminals from kmfd
to kyng. Otherwise VFR conditions expected through the day and
most places tonight. Did take conditions to MVFR late tonight in
fog/mist inland northeast Ohio.
Outlook...non VFR conditions possible Tuesday in showers and
high pressure will continue across the lower Great Lakes
through the day. A weak trough will Cross Lake Erie Saturday night but
high pressure will build back in for Sunday and Monday. A cold front
will move across the lake late Tuesday. Winds will be from the east
to northeast today into Saturday before turning southwest. Winds
will remain from the south to southwest Saturday night through
Tuesday. Winds speeds will remain 15 knots or less and waves 2 feet
or less through the period.