Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
1135 PM EST Friday Dec 26 2014
high pressure over the southeast states will move off the coast.
A cold front over the northern Great Lakes will move across the
area late Saturday. A second cold front is expected late Monday.
High pressure from Canada will build southeast middle week next week.
Near term /through Saturday/...
hourly temperatures are running a degree or two above the
forecast. With the clouds and the south wind continuing overnight
the temperatures will likely not fall much and the actual low
temperatures may be a degree or two warmer than the earlier
forecast. Made a few minor adjustments to the low temperature
forecast....generally in the middle and upper 30s. Also made minor
changes to the dew points to line up better with the current
The high clouds are thickening as the upper jet rounds the bottom
of the trough and the divergence aloft increases. Patches of
stratocumulus are expanding and filling in across Indiana and it
will become cloudy across Northwest Ohio overnight...spreading
east on Saturday.
Short term /Saturday night through Monday night/...
a cold front will move the forecast area on Saturday. The 12z
models show a weak surface wave developing on the front early
Saturday. This wave will move west of the forecast area Saturday
morning. Scattered showers will accompany the front as it moves
across the County Warning Area. The front is not moving
particularly fast so a threat of showers will exist most of Saturday
afternoon and evening. The best chance for rain will be Saturday
evening 00z-06z sun. Showers will be widespread but the moisture is
somewhat limited. I do not expect a lot of quantitative precipitation forecast with the system.
Cold air advection behind the front will usher cooler air into the
region for Saturday. 850 temperatures may cool fast enough early Sunday
to create a brief mix of rain and snow over parts of NE Ohio and northwest
PA. Little or no snow accumulation is expected.
High pressure will build back into the area Sunday afternoon
bringing an end to the precipitation. High pressure will remain in
control of the weather through Monday. A weak backdoor cold front
will move across Lake Erie late Monday night into Tuesday. This
front may bring a few scattered snow showers but I do not expect
widespread or intense precipitation with this system.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
a high pressure ridge begins to build across the area on Tuesday and
basically continues to position itself over the forecast area through
Thursday. There could be some lake effect snow showers Tuesday and
Wednesday but mostly all of the snow showers should be confined to
our traditional snow belt areas. Looks like we might be able to
squeeze out another day or two Thursday and Friday with little or no
precipitation. By late Friday an approaching storm system will bring
some precipitation to the area. For our extended period Tuesday
through Thursday...temperatures probably below normal for this time
Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/...
lower clouds around 2500 feet quickly spread northeast and were on
the Indiana Ohio border. Expecting this ceiling to reach western
portions of the area around 06z and spread east over the next few
hours after that. Bulk of rain really does not arrive until
tomorrow afternoon and evening. Ceilings and visibilities will
lower even further to below 1000 feet. Winds should remain out of
the south through the period and then shift to a westerly
direction as front passes through the region by the end of the
Outlook...non-VFR through Sunday. Non-VFR mainly over NE Ohio/northwest
PA Monday...then possibly over the entire area again Tuesday.
high pressure will give way to an approaching cold front on
Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory will most likely be needed behind
the cold front mainly on the east end probably Saturday night. It
will be short lived as a high pressure ridge builds into the area
very quickly on Sunday. The high pressure ridge will remain over
the lake through Tuesday night before shifting slowly south. As
this happens the westerly winds will pick up as it might prompt
the need for a Small Craft Advisory. &&
long term...British Columbia