Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
125 PM EDT Thursday Jul 2 2015
high pressure over Wisconsin will move southeast over the region
through tonight then remain in place through the weekend before
shifting east on Monday. A cold front is expected to reach the
area on Tuesday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
tranquil conditions will continue this afternoon as drier air from
the north slowly spreads south across Northern Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania. Isolated sprinkles over the southern most part of
the forecast area have ended. Will lower afternoon cloud cover and
adjust maximum afternoon temperatures in a few spots.
fair weather is expected today as drier air gradually filters into
the region from the north. DTX morning sounding shows rather dry air
above 850 mb. Radar mosaic still shows a few sprinkles south of US
Route 30 but they have decreased this morning. Will lower the probability of precipitation
further over the south. Cloud cover will likely limit maximum
temperatures so will lower them slightly.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
discussion above...some leftover rain showers may still be in the far south
until 10 PM but after that dry conditions should prevail as the high
slowly pushes more dry air over all of the County Warning Area.
A low tracking across Kentucky into the virginias and the associated upper
trough will spread high and some middle clouds across the County Warning Area
(especially the south) tonight and on Friday. Enough low level moisture
may get pushed back north for a few rain showers/thunderstorms and rain in the south and southeast on
Friday. Since the models are undecided on precipitation for Friday will only
carry a small chance for Friday into Friday night.
Concern for the weekend is that even though the models show surface
high pressure tending to prevail over the area...there is general
upper troughing with weak S/w's moving through the region. This could
provide just enough forcing to produce a few rain showers. Will keep probability of precipitation
between 10 and 15% most of the time due to the uncertainty.
Temperatures should still be below normal on Sat but look to warm to almost
normal for Sunday.
Long term /Monday through Wednesday/...
the long term begins Monday
with models showing high pressure over the area. The high will
break down during the day and move east allowing a cold front well
west of the area to begin moving east through the midwestern states.
By Tuesday morning the front will extend across lower Michigan to
northern/central Illinois. Believe as the front approaches Thursday afternoon
rain chances will be increasing. Threw in slight chance numbers
Monday night west but increased to high chance probability of precipitation Tuesday. Tuesday
night through Wednesday the front will sag slowly south through the
area...so continued the middle to high chance probability of precipitation through the rest of
the long term. Temperatures seasonal Monday and Tuesday. A bit below normal
for middle week with highs mainly in the 70s.
Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/...
high pressure will continue to build over the region from the
north during the taf period. Drier air associated with the high
continues to work in and clouds have slowly eroded. A Lake Shadow
has already developed with Keri already clear and kcle to follow.
Lingering MVFR ceilings in the south should lift to VFR the next
couple of hours and then become scattered by early evening. Mainly
clear to scattered skies are expected tonight. There could be some
patchy MVFR fog late tonight inland areas.
high pressure will dominate the region through Monday with
generally light winds. Waves will remain mostly at or below 2 feet.