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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
916 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON 
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY 
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT 
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NNE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THRU SAT 
AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE LIFT AND LEAD TO CONTINUED 
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE CWA WITH A GENERAL SHIFT 
INTO MAINLY THE NE HALF BY 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO 
DEVELOP AND SLIDE ESE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WHILE SHIFTING INTO 
MAINLY THE NE BY DAYBREAK. SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD RANGE FROM NONE 
IN THE FAR SW TO POSSIBLY AN INCH IN THE FAR NE. A LITTLE LAKE 
ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR SO SOME SNOWBELT AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCAL 
ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES.

POPS THRU 08Z LARGELY RESULT FROM MIX OF RUC/HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR 
DATA.

THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW 
TEMPS TO FALL ANY FURTHER THEN TEMPS SHOULD RISE SOME DURING THE 
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA AND EXTEND THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES 
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST 
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SIT ON THE COAST AND PUMP WARM 
AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE TRUE 
EFFECTS OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE FELT ON SUNDAY WHEN THE 
STRONGEST WARM AIR ARRIVES. LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO FORCE THE 
WARMING INTO THE REGION AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THE 
STORM SYSTEM WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT EAST TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF 
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES 
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. FRONT THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA 
SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SHOWERS WILL RETURN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. 
MOISTURE APPEARS IT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE SINCE THERE WILL NOT 
BE A STRONG INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. 

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON 
MONDAY AND WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE INTO MONDAY. 
FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT 
PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT MENTION IT AT THIS TIME.

COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS NOT THAT STRONG AND 
ACTUALLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR 
HIGHS ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH A WARM 
ADVECTION PATTERN ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO 
WEDNESDAY. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO LIFT IS IN QUESTION 
BUT THIS TIME OF YEAR IT ALWAYS SEEMS TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN 
SHOWERS WITH EACH PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY 
DIFFERENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEYOND 
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CURRENTLY HAVING A PIECE OF JET ENERGY IN THE 
SOUTHERN JET STREAM. THE ECMWF EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS THIS FEATURE BUT 
IT IS 24 TO 36 HOURS SLOWER. HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO 
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. 

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY 
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION/OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW FROM MICHIGAN INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
THIS SNOW BAND IS MOVING EAST ALTHOUGH EXPECT IT TO A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE NIGHT ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BEFORE PULLING
ENE SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS KCLE KCAK AND LASTING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT KYNG AND KERI. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE KMFD KMNN KFDY AREA ALTHOUGH NO REACHING THE
GROUND ON THE OBS. SATURDAY MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR
EARLY BUT LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AMS SATURATES AND WILL
LIKELY SEE LIGHT RAIN AND CIGS/VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR
IN CIGS/LIGHT RAIN/MIST/FOG AHEAD AND INVOF THE WARM FRONT WITH
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE
NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT WITH A 
SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LARGER WAVES BEYOND 
5 NM THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY DEVELOP ENOUGH OF A SOUTHWESTERLY 
COMPONENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT 
WILL CROSS THE LAKE. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND QUICKLY COME AROUND TO 
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN







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