Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
947 PM EDT Friday Oct 9 2015
high pressure over the Midwest will drift southeastward across the
region on Saturday reaching the middle Atlantic coast on Sunday.
A cold front will cross the region late Monday and Monday night.
High pressure will build over the area from the south for the
middle portion of next week.
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
other than a few sprinkles over inland northwest PA it appears that the
rainfall has ended. Even the few sprinkles over northwest PA should end
by midnight. Drier air continues to push southward into the region
with clouds clearing over Lake Erie. Still some uncertainty about
how much cloud cover will redevelop off of the lake after some
brief clearing. Believe the clouds will mainly be from Cleveland
to Mansfield and points east.
It will be much cooler tonight compared to recent nights. All
locations will dip into the 40s. If he clearing persists longer
than anticipated over northwest PA a few locations could dip into the
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Monday night/...
a quiet weekend is expected as high pressure settles over the
region. Saturday will see seasonable temperatures but warm air
advection will push temperatures into the 70s most areas on Sunday. The
next weather maker in the form of a cold front will approach from
the west on Monday. Will see increasing clouds and eventually
precipitation as the front arrives. The timing of front brings it into
the area just after peak daytime heating so we should see greater
precipitation coverage than with today's front. No mention of thunder
for now. The latest GFS and European model (ecmwf) are pretty similar with the
timing of this front so confidence is above average today. By
daybreak Tuesday most of the precipitation should be gone. Guidance temperatures
in good agreement and will follow today.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
the region will be under northwest flow aloft for the extent of the
long term forecast. This will open the way for some shortwave
disturbances to move into the Great Lakes...though timing tends to
be tricky especially several days out. Current model runs don't
indicate any deep troughs at this time...and with moisture lacking
over the region it will be difficult to produce any precipitation.
The only exception to this will be the cold air advection over the lake and lake
effect shower development along the northeastern Lakeshore counties.
With the flow predominately northwest after Wednesday. Each shortwave will
be followed by shots of cooler/drier air which could lead to some
lows dropping into the lower 40s. Highs will be near normal around
Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/...
drier air spreading over the area should flush out most of the
lower clouds. High pressure builds in from the west too quick and
winds go light so ground moisture will likely result in fog
formation later in the night. Even though most guidance agrees
with fog developing...it only has vsby's dropping to MVFR
levels...probably due to dewpoints that continue to slowly drop
and possibly cirrus arriving from the northwest. Morning fog will quickly
dissipate by around 14z then VFR will prevail with mostly just
Outlook...another cold front will move across the area on Monday
night with non-VFR possible into Tuesday.
a cold front continues to exit the area with northwest winds 20kt
or less across Lake Erie. Winds will veer to the north tonight which
will allow some of the 5' waves to spread just east of the islands.
Small craft waves linger through daybreak as the wind speeds will
begin to diminish to 15kt or less with high pressure building over
the region. High pressure will dominate the weather Saturday with
gradually improving waves and light and variable winds. By Sunday
some warm air advection and a reasonable low level jet will support
an increase in southwest winds. By Monday we could be looking at
sustained 20kt SW winds over the water and near small craft
conditions. A cold front will slide east over the lake Monday night
with northwest flow developing behind it briefing on Tuesday. A stronger
cold front will move across the waters on Thursday night.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EDT Saturday for lez144>149.