Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
347 am EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...
high pressure over Lake Huron will move southeast to the New
Jersey coast through Thursday and will be the dominant influence on
our weather. Heat and humidity increase over the weekend.
&&
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
high pressure will bring fair weather to the region for the next
few days. For today skies will be sunny/mostly sunny with only a
period of few/scattered cumulus inland. Slightly below normal...but still
seasonable in the 70s.
&&
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/...
quiet period through Friday with high pressure overhead.
Subsidence and dry low levels will keep conditions dry into
Friday. Temperatures will inch upwards going into the weekend as
the Central Plains/Midwest upper ridge begins to build eastward.
Dewpoints will still be on the comfortable side...but by Friday
high temperatures will be pushing the middle 80s across the I-75 corridor.
Not much in the way of any cloud cover Thursday...and a slight
increase on Friday as we get on the backside of the surface high
and start to tap into some return flow.
Unfortunately models still differ on Saturday/S weather. Frontal
boundary dips southward to the Central Lakes...active with
convection. European model (ecmwf) allows the perturbations topping the
plains/Midwest ridge axis to bring those showers/thunderstorms to
Northern Ohio/northwest PA. GFS is stronger with the ridge locally and keeps
most of the activity north. With the uncertainty that still
lingers...have precipitation chances at 30 percent. At this point just
know that the possibility is there. What is agreed upon fairly
well is the warm-up...middle and upper 80s for a big portion of the
area Saturday.
&&
Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
a Summer pattern should prevail during the extended portion of the
forecast with ridging across the central states and the heat nosing
into the western and lower Great Lakes. As is typical...with the
ridge axis to the west and a northwest flow aloft...will have to
watch for thunderstorm activity developing upstream in the
baroclinic zone and sliding across the Great Lakes. Will have to
allow for a chance of showers/storms through Sunday. Cannot rule out
a thunderstorm Monday and will continue with a "slight chance"
forecast. The forecast pop begins to go back up on Tuesday (chance)
although I could see the ridge holding for one more day but will not
make such small changes on day 7 of the forecast.
High temperatures will be dependent on the amount of clouds and any
shower/storms. This is mostly an issue on Sunday...but in general
highs will be in the middle/upper 80s with lows from the middle 60s to
lower 70s through the period.
&&
Aviation /07z Wednesday through Sunday/...
surface high pressure over the northern Great Lakes will move to
New York state Wednesday night with VFR conditions continuing.
Light northeast winds will continue. A few patches of clouds will
come off Lake Erie near the Lakeshore this morning and
scattered fair weather cumulus will develop inland by midday.
Skies will clear again by evening
Outlook...VFR into Saturday. Non-VFR in any showers/storms
Saturday night and Sunday.
&&
Marine...
high pressure was over the northern Great Lakes this morning with
just enough of a gradient for a brisk wind from the east-northeast.
The gradient should weaken today and the onshore component to the
wind should take over. In the meantime...the western basin will be a
little choppy this morning. Since the wind will be coming
down...will not need a Small Craft Advisory...but some lingering 3
foot waves likely early. The lake should calm down by tonight. The
high pressure center will move east and become nearly stationary
along the East Coast by the weekend. The offshore/onshore wind
gradient will dominate through Thursday and perhaps Friday. A light
to moderate south to southwest flow will take over by the weekend.
Will have to watch out for thunderstorms over the weekend.
&&
Cle watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...none.
PA...none.
Marine...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...oudeman
near term...oudeman
short term...oudeman
long term...kosarik
aviation...kosarik
marine...kosarik
