Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
1214 PM EDT Tuesday may 5 2015
a weakening cold front will become stationary over the area today.
The front will lift back north as a warm front on Wednesday. High
pressure at the surface and aloft will take control of the region
Thursday into Friday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
temperatures are staying cooler in Lucas County due to the
northeast flow down The Spine of the lake. So will go ahead and
drop temperatures and keep them nearly steady in the 50s through
the day. Elsewhere...come clearing is pushing into Knox County at
this time and still expect some cumulus clouds to move into that
area to keep it from being clear all afternoon. Clouds and showers
will continue across the north with a possible embedded rumble of
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/...
the better chances of rain look like they will occur this evening.
All of the shower activity should lift to the north and northeast
into the overnight with most locations dry by Wednesday morning.
Plenty of moisture and the warm front located over the region will
require the mention of afternoon thunderstorms for Wednesday
afternoon...mainly from the Central Highlands to northwest PA. Upper
level heights will continue to increase Thursday which should
squash the convective development. Although by Friday the lake
breeze convergence and warm temperatures could initiate a few
thunderstorms over NE Ohio into northwest PA. A slight shift of the ridge
to the east on Friday may allow some thunder to sneak into Northwest Ohio
as well. This will be late in the day if it can occur. Have placed
chance probability of precipitation in the forecast to cover this potential.
Wednesday will be the cool day of the short term with highs
generally in the 70s. Warmer Thursday into Friday with highs 80 to
85. Cooler near the Lakeshore...especially on Wednesday.
Long term /Saturday through Monday/...
above normal temperatures expected through the extended forecast as
an upper level ridge holds firm along the East Coast. The only
exception to this will be near Lake Erie where lake breezes may
develop and hold temperatures closer to normal.
A broad upper level trough over the western states will curl
northeast towards the northern plains over the course of the
weekend. Meanwhile another trough will move across eastern
Canada...placing the active storm track between this system and the
ridge to the south across the central Great Lakes. Deep
southwesterly flow will transport increasing amounts of moisture
towards the region as the weekend progresses with chances of showers
and thunderstorms returning as the next front drops south. The
00z/05 GFS is the fastest with the cold front pushing south on
Saturday and stalling over central Ohio into the weekend. The
Gem/European model (ecmwf) are in better agreement and do not show the chances of
showers and thunderstorms sneaking in from the west until Sunday.
Probability of precipitation will need adjusted as confidence approaches in a favored
solution and timing. Most areas will see temperatures near the 80
degree mark over the weekend...dropping back early next week as the
front arrives. Coverage of clouds/showers will also be a factor with
respect to temperatures.
Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/...
IFR visibilities at many sites early this morning will start to
improve through 14z. A band of showers extends from near Columbus to
Southern Lake Michigan will lift northeast across the area this
morning. Most sites will experience a couple hours of showers with
conditions improving to VFR behind the band of showers. Showers may
linger longer at tol/cle/eri as showers set up from east to west and
sets up near or just north of these locations. Additional showers are
also expected to re-develop across central and northeast Ohio this
afternoon. There will be a chance of thunderstorms today but
confidence was not high enough to include in the forecast at this
time. Ceiling will be tricky at tol with a northeasterly flow off
the lake. Ceilings will try to lift late this afternoon to VFR but
there is a chance of remaining MVFR through the day. All sites near
Lake Erie will likely drop to IFR late tonight.
Outlook...early morning br possible over the next several days. Non
VFR possible in showers as a front approaches late Saturday.
a weak cold front will push south of Lake Erie today with northeast
winds. These winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots on the western
half of the lake with waves building to 1 to 3 feet just east of the
islands. Winds will remain out of the northeast until Thursday when
a warm front pushes back north and winds shift around to the
southwest. Southwest winds will continue into the weekend when the
next cold front will eventually push back south.