Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
1236 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

a large area of high pressure will move east across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley today and tonight. A weak low pressure
system will move east into the Tennessee Valley by Monday morning
and then to Pennsylvania and New York state by Monday night. A
ridge of high pressure will build northeast across the local area
Tuesday followed by yet another area of low pressure Tuesday


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
bands of snow continue to flow off of Lake Erie for NE Ohio and
northwest PA. The heavier bands are still located near the Ohio/PA border
with a connection to Lake Huron still evident. Scattered snow
showers continue elsewhere downwind of the lake. Had thought about
removing the advisory early for lake and Geauga counties but the
snow showers have been a bit more persistent. So will leave the
advisories going through 4 PM.


Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
upper level trough over the forecast area will move off to the
east allowing a very weak ridge of high pressure to build east
over the region. This upper level ridge will force high pressure
at the surface to move east of the area today.

Another trough will dive into the forecast area aloft signaling a
wave of low pressure to move east northeast across the area
Monday. This low pressure system will bring another round of
light snow to the entire forecast area Monday into Monday night.
Snow accumulations between 1 and 3 inches at most is expected with
this system.

Some lingering light snow is expected Monday night as the low
pressure system pulls out to the east.

Temperatures by Monday should begin to moderate as some warm air
advection begins to take place. However...cold Arctic air will
remain in place through Sunday. Lows Sunday morning will be colder
than this morning as high pressure settles in over the local area.
This should be the extent of the Arctic air invasion as some warm
air advection begins to take place especially Sunday night into


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
not many changes to the long term this morning. A couple systems
will impact the area during the period. The models continue to show
differences and have used a blend of the guidance again today. Low
pressure will be off to the southeast at daybreak Tuesday. The back
edge of the precipitation shield associated with this low will be across
the area at the start of the day. Will try to dry things out by
midday. The next system will right on it's heals and will likely
see more light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system will
be a fast mover and by midday Wednesday it should again be dry. High
pressure will move to the east the second half of the week allowing
warm southerly winds to return. The area will be back above normal
by Thursday and really warm on Friday. Will likely see more precipitation
by the end of the period.


Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/...
high pressure building
in from the west will cause winds to diminish later this afternoon
and early tonight...becoming light and variable by daybreak. The
lake effect snow showers will slowly taper off from west to east
late today through tonight. The band of lake effect clouds off of
Lake Michigan will be shifting east across the area this afternoon
and tonight and will merge with the ongoing lake effect clouds in
the snowbelt...but most of this should be VFR or high end MVFR

Outlook...non VFR Monday and Monday night in light snow
especially NE Ohio/northwest PA.


not many changes to the marine package this morning.
Winds continue to blow to around 30 knots on the lake. Speeds
should be peaking and expect the flow to gradually diminish today.
By late tonight the flow will be under 10 knots and the threat for
icing will be over. High pressure over the northern plains this
morning will be over Ohio at daybreak Sunday. The surface ridge
will push east of the lake during the day with southerly flow
developing. A pair of lows will impact the region the first half of
the week with winds becoming westerly on the backside of these
systems. It does not look like speeds will be high enough to
necessitate any headlines. Given the cold weather expected the next
36 hours expect there to be a lot of ice on the lake again by early


Cle watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...Lake effect Snow Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
Wind Chill Advisory until 10 am EST Sunday for ohz003-006>014-
Lake effect snow warning until 10 PM EST this evening for
PA...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 am EST Sunday for paz001>003.
Lake effect snow warning until 10 PM EST this evening for
Marine...heavy freezing spray warning until 3 am EST Sunday for lez061-


near term...Mullen
short term...Lombardy
long term...kubina

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations