Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
956 PM EDT Tuesday may 5 2015
a stationary front across central Ohio into southwest Pennsylvania
will lift north as a warm front tonight and Wednesday. High pressure
over the northern Great Lakes will move slowly southeast to the New
Jersey coast by Thursday morning. Low pressure will move northeast
across the western Great Lakes to James Bay by Friday evening. A
cold front trailing from the low pressure system will move east
across the area Saturday night.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
The bulk of the shower activity remains north of a stalled frontal
boundary that is wavering across central Ohio...and south of the
local forecast area. The latest available model guidance continues
to indicate the front will drift back north as a warm front
overnight with showers and isolated thunder persisting to its
north. Areas of patchy dense fog are likely to develop as
temperatures fall back to current dew point readings.
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday night/...
surface based warm front will take its good old time moving north of
the area. Still expecting the front to hang around and extend
southeast into the eastern portions of the forecast area through
Thursday morning. Eventually the warm front and associated moisture
will lift north of the area bringing an end to the threat for
precipitation. Fair weather is expected over much of the area on
Wednesday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the east.
All areas should be precipitation free by Wednesday night and
continuing into Thursday night. A cold front will approach from the
west and could bring a chance for some showers and thunderstorms
Friday into Friday night in the west. Eastern portions could be
under the influence of a weak trough and associated moisture
streaming north out of a storm system on the Gulf Coast.
Main thing is the forecast area remains in the warm sector through
this period. This means warm air advection will take place until the
cold front arrives over the weekend.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
the long term begins on Saturday with models showing a broad upper
ridge across the eastern third of the country with the axis across
New England. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) show a fairly moist flow through
the Mississippi Valley into the central Great Lakes focused along a
stationary front from the Southern Plains into the Central Lakes.
Through Sunday and into Monday this ridge breaks down as low
pressure moves through the Central Plains into the Great Lakes
region. The stationary front will lift north into the Central Lakes
Sunday and Monday. Tuesday the low will move north into Canada and
will drag the associated cold front through the region. On balance
this will continue the mild/warm pattern across the area through
Monday although increased moisture in the region will help in the
development mainly diurnal convection. Will have chance probability of precipitation most
periods...increasing to likely for the Tuesday outlook with the
passage of the cold front.
Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/...
wavy frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary across the
area for the next 24 hours before pushing north again. It may still
have some southward drift to it tonight. IFR ceilings and visibilities
across the shoreline counties from khzy to kcle and klpr. Kcle is
on the edge of this...and will go with persistence into the
evening with the north wind likely keeping US IFR. Concerned that
Keri may lower into IFR at just about anytime this evening with a
subtle shift in the wind. Hires guidance keeps Keri and kcle on
the edge for most of the night...and also brings it into ktol.
Cannot see why this would not happen with the lingering low level
moisture. Expecting some MVFR/localized IFR further south near the
front. Showers tonight will primarily focused across far Northern
Ohio/northwest PA and out over the lake...although a shower possible
further south along the front just about anytime. Thunder chances
have decreased dramatically for the night. Expect slow improvement
on Wednesday and also less coverage of showers/ts as ridge builds
a little stronger overhead and will only be left with the
lingering front to focus precipitation.
Outlook...early morning br possible over the next several days. Non
VFR possible in showers as a front approaches late Saturday and Sunday.
a weak cold front will move south of the lake into central Ohio this
evening or early tonight. This will turn winds east to northeast on
the lake. This flow will last through Wednesday night. Thursday
winds will turn southerly again as the front lifts north of the lake
as a warm front. South to southwest flow will continue through
Sunday. Wind speeds will remain fairly light with 15 knots or less
expected through the period. Waves generally 2 feet or less.