Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
618 PM EST Friday Nov 28 2014
high pressure will prevail through early next week. A cold front will
approach from the north Tuesday...with an inland wedge of high pressure
building in its wake for the middle of next week.
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
surface high pressure will continue to build over the region from
the west/northwest...before eventually settling overhead later
tonight. Strong radiational cooling conditions are anticipated...
with clear skies and fully decoupled winds across the area. This
will lead to rapid temperature falls this evening...with sub-
freezing temperatures expected all the way to the US-17 corridor
overnight. Overall...lows will be in the upper 20s to around 30
inland...with some middle 20s expected in well sheltered locations.
Near the beaches and barrier islands...lows should be in the middle
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Monday/...
Saturday through Monday...zonal flow regime across the southeast
U.S. Will become slightly ridge dominated Sunday into Monday as
shortwave energy digs across the Great Lakes. Surface high pressure
will gradually shift offshore through the period allowing a broad
warm air advection pattern take hold. Temperatures will moderate as
a result with highs reaching the upper/lower 60s Saturday and well
into the 70s Sunday and Monday ahead of a cold front. Lows will warm
from the upper 30s/lower 40s Sunday morning into the 45-55 range by
Monday morning...warmest at the coast. Dry weather will persist with
no substantial cloud cover.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
a relatively zonal upper level flow during the long term period will
allow for a series of Canadian high pressure systems to drop in from
the northwest. The initial system will push a backdoor cold front
into the area on Tuesday with a weak wedge pattern setting up
Tuesday night and Wednesday. A reinforcing area of high pressure
will drop in Thursday and persist into Friday. Relatively weak
southerly flow is expected middle to late week...reducing rain chances.
The best chance of rain will be over the marine area where a
persistent coastal trough enhances convergence. We bumped high temperatures
down a few degrees each day to feature 60s most areas.
Aviation /23z Friday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions will prevail at kchs and ksav through 00z Sunday.
Extended aviation outlook...MVFR or lower ceilings possible on
Tuesday within a cold air damming regime.
tonight...winds/seas will steadily decrease/subside this evening in
response to high pressure becoming more centered along the southeast
coast. Expect relatively tranquil conditions for the remainder of
the night as high pressure settles over coastal waters...with winds
at or below 10 kts and seas between 2-4 feet...highest in offshore
Saturday through Monday...broad southerly flow regime will prevail
as high pressures shifts well offshore into the open Atlantic. Both
winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
through the period.
Monday night through Wednesday night...a tightening northeast
gradient will develop on Tuesday as cold high pressure builds from
the north and an inland wedge pattern takes place. Small craft
advisories are possible Tuesday into Wednesday when the pressure
gradient is tightest.