Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
711 am EDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015
high pressure will move east of the region today...bringing warm
and more humid conditions. A cold front will approach the region
from the west tonight and cross the region on Wednesday. High
pressure will then build toward the region from the Great Lakes
Wednesday night and Thursday.
Near term /through tonight/...
707 am update...hrly temperatures were adjusted to fit the current
conditions. Clouds are pushing out west/the ridge moving east. Rest of
the forecast looks OK.
High pressure ridge currently across the region will slide east today
west/a southerly return flow setting up. The southerly flow will
bring warm and more humid air into the region. The County Warning Area will remain
mainly dry into the afternoon west/the exception of the far western
areas as some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will approach the region out
ahead of the main cold front. Some of the mesoscale models
including the latest nam12,WRF and hrrr 3km show some scattered
activity moving into western Maine by later this afternoon. Thunderstorms
activity will be limited due to warm temperatures aloft and a cap. 7 to
8c at 700mbs and -8c at 500mb. Can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm as
some sb/MUCAPE is there(500-800 joules). Lacking factor initially
will be the deep moisture and significant forcing. Afternoon
temperatures are forecast to reach into the 80s once again today.
Downeast and the coastal communities will be cooler west/the onshore
The cold front is expected to move into western Maine later
tonight west/showers and perhaps some thunderstorms. Some fog is possible
especially across the interior downeast and coastal regions. A
stable layer is in place in the llvls west/elevated cape above that
layer. Precipitable waters are forecast to reach near 2 inches west/a k index of
35 across the central and downeast areas. There is some decent
shear at 0-6km of 25 kts and an increasing SW flow just above the
stable layer. Further north and west, parameters are not as high.
Decided to keep the mention of thunderstorms in there through early
Wednesday morning. If the parameters for the central and downeast
hold, then some heavy downpours and gusty winds are possible
especially in ant thunderstorms. It will be a humid night west/overnight lows
in the 60s.
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday/...
the cold front will cross the region early Wednesday. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms will accompany the passage of the front
Wednesday morning followed by partial clearing during Wednesday
afternoon. Despite the passage of the cold front high temperatures on
Wednesday will still be in the middle to upper 70s across the north
and lower 80 central and down east. Expect mainly clear skies
Wednesday night followed by a mainly sunny day on Thursday as high
pressure builds east. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in
the low 50s north and middle to upper 50s down east. Highs on
Thursday will be in the middle to upper 70s.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
Thursday night will be mainly clear with lows in the 50s.
Friday will be mainly dry although a weak upper disturbance could
bring a slight chance of a shower to the region Friday afternoon.
A more potent disturbance will bring the chance of showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. A weak upper disturbance could
bring a shower on Sunday but a more significant system will bring
a better chance for showers and thunderstorms on Monday.
Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/...
near term: VFR conditions will prevail into the evening for all
the terminals after some MVFR visibility this morning. Fog and stratus
are expected later tonight west/conditions dropping to MVFR by late
evening and then IFR overnight.
Short term: MVFR/IFR conditions early Wednesday in showers/isolated
thunderstorm/ptachy fog. Conditions improve to VFR Wednesday afternoon.
Mainly VFR Thursday through Sunday.
near term: winds/seas are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. S
winds will increase tonight 10 to 15 knots west/gusts to 20 k's. Wave
heights will increase to 3-5 feet which is supported by the local
Short term: wind/seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through the