Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Caribou ME
331 PM EDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

Synopsis...
cold high pressure currently over New England today will progress
east over the Maritimes tonight into Friday. A trough of low
press will move east across the area Saturday.

&&

Near term /through Friday/...
very quiet weather conditions are expected to continue across our
County Warning Area with a strong high pressure affecting the state through
tonight and most of tomorrow. This ridge will keep conditions dry
and cool through most of the day tomorrow. Min temperatures tonight
should not be as cold as last night...but still chilly with
readings ranging from the teens northwest to the middle and upper
20s downeast. Temperatures will rebound into the 40s and lower 50s across
most of our forecast area for highs on Friday.
&&

Short term /Friday night through Sunday/...
a shortwave will then track eastward across the area Friday night
into Saturday...producing scattered rain and snow showers across
the northern half of our County Warning Area. This system will quickly depart to the
east and give way to another high pressure system from
Canada...resulting in dry conditions Sat night and Sunday.
&&

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
high pressure will move offshore Monday night and a warmer
southwest flow will develop ahead of a weak cold front sagging
southward from Quebec. Clouds will increase later in the night.
Lows will generally be in the low 30s with a few upper 20s
possible in the normally colder locations. The cold front will
move into northern zones during the morning with just a few
hundredths of an inch of rainfall. Highs will reach the upper 50s
to near 60f for southern portions of the forecast area and lower
50s north where frontal cloud cover will be denser. As the parent
low fills in Quebec...the cold front will also weaken and stall
across the forecast area. Some clearing will occur overnight and allow
temperatures to fall into the middle to upper 30s.

Another low pressure system will move along the stalled front
towards the forecast area on Tuesday. This low will deepen during
the day as upper level forcing increases and it will slowly track
into the region on Tuesday night. A very strong upper level jet
approaching from the northwest will cause the low to further
deepen on Tuesday night into Wednesday and then become a cut-off
low off the New England coast. This will keep clouds and rain in
the area through Thursday with high in the low 50s and lows in the
upper 30s. High pressure will finally return later Thursday and
build Thursday night. Rainfall amounts could add up to well over
an inch from Tuesday night into Thursday morning and keep Hydro
concerns going through the week as remaining snow melts and keeps
rivers elevated. Am leaning towards the European model (ecmwf) solution with the
concern that the GFS moves the cut-off eastward too rapidly.
&&

Aviation /19z Thursday through Tuesday/...
near term: VFR conditions are expected through the near term
across our entire forecast area due to dry area associated with a
strong high pressure system.

Short term: a shortwave will bring moisture and lowering
ceilings/visibilities to much of the area Friday night and Saturday...with
the best chance of MVFR/IFR conditions across the northern third of
the state. Conditions will improve Sat night and Sunday.
&&

Marine...
near term: east winds tonight will become srly on Friday ahead of
the next disturbance moving across northern main. However winds and
waves should not be that strong so have let the Small Craft Advisory from this
morning expire.

Short term: winds will veer out of the northwest by Saturday as a
cold front moves through. But wind speeds should remain fairly
light.
&&

Hydrology...
the Flood Watch for the hsa has been cancelled for all but
Aroostook and Penobscot counties where there are still ongoing flood
warnings. Calls to emergency managers and gages led to cancelling
the remainder of the watches.

The highlights at this time include a Flood Warning along the Stillwater
river in Orono where some houses had their basements flooded this
morning and water flowed over a portion of the parking lot adjacent
to the river. A Flood Warning for the Dexter area where there has
been flooding in town and a culvert let go. A Flood Warning is also
in effect along the St John river in the St Francis area.

No significant rainfall is expected during the next few days.
Rainfall amounts expected to be light <0... in most areas
< 0.10" with a frontal passage late Friday night into Sat.
Temperatures will be seasonable over the next few days with
temperatures dropping below freezing at night which will cause for
a more controlled released of snow melt across northern and western
Maine.

Please check our web Page for more details on the flood warnings
at: http://weather.Gov/car

&&

Car watches/warnings/advisories...
ME...Flood Watch through Friday morning for mez001-002-005-006-011-
015.
Marine...none.
&&

$$
Near term...rb
short term...rb
long term...mcw
aviation...rb/rb
marine...rb/rb
hydrology...cumulonimbus