Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
401 am EDT Thursday Oct 2 2014
high pressure will build across the area today and remain in place
through Friday. An occluded front will move through late Saturday
Near term /through tonight/...
high pressure will dominate the weather for the north and central
portions of the forecast area through the near term period. A low
pressure in the North Atlantic south of Nova Scotia and its
associated upper low will remain quasi-stationary through the
period continuing a slight chance for showers along the downeast
Loaded a blend of GFS/NAM/Gem/ECMWF for hrly temperature/dp/skycon and
wnd/pop. Loaded nawave 4 for seas in coastal waters. Added 15
percent to winds for gusts over land...25 percent over coastal
Short term /Friday through Saturday/...
high pressure will remain across the region on Friday with
abundant sunshine expected across the region along with light east
winds. Highs on Friday will be near normal for this time of year
with low to middle 60s expected.
The high will continue to remain across the region through Friday
night. Moisture will start to increase later Friday night in advance
of the cold/occluded front. Expect skies to become mostly cloudy
Friday night with some patchy fog and drizzle development across
downeast. Lows Friday night will generally be in the low to middle
Moisture will continue to increase on Saturday as the cold/occluded
front approaches from the west. Expect mostly cloudy skies and the
chance for showers by afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be in the
upper 50s to middle 60s.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
rain will develop across the region Saturday night as the front
moves east. The rain will continue into early Sunday as the front
moves northeast across the region but most of Sunday afternoon may
turn out to be rain free with the passage of the front.
High pressure will build in for Sunday night and Monday with dry
More unsettled weather can be expected by the middle of next week as
the next upper trough approaches from the west.
Aviation /08z Thursday through Monday/...
near term: IFR conditions across The Crown of Maine this morning
in fog...the fog will burn off quickly after sunrise. Expect sky clear
for car...fve...pqi...and hul after 9am. Expect fog to start
setting back into the above sites around midnight tonight. MVFR
conditions for bgr and bhb under a low stratus deck. Anticipate
that the bkn015 conditions to scattered out around 9am. Expect that fog
will settle into the bgr and bhb areas tonight after midnight.
Short term: VFR conditions Friday. Patchy fog and drizzle can be
expected later Friday night especially kbgr/kbhb with IFR
possible. MVFR/IFR conditions are likely Saturday and Saturday
night in steady rain. MVFR/IFR early Sunday in rain will give way
to VFR by Sunday afternoon with VFR continuing through Monday.
near term: Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through
this evening. At this time it looks like the Small Craft Advisory
will for hazardous seas will continue tonight.
Short term: winds/seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory levels
Friday through Saturday. Seas may approach Small Craft Advisory
levels Saturday night.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for anz050-