Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
629 am EST sun Mar 1 2015
high pressure will move east of the region Sunday. Low pressure
will cross the region Sunday night into Monday. High pressure will
build toward the area Monday night and Tuesday from the west.
Another low will cross the region Wednesday.
Near term /through tonight/...
another record low at Bangor with -13f recorded. The previous low
was -11f. The lowest readings in the forecast area were around
Otherwise...latest guidance continues to shift the storm track
southward and have reduced snow totals by an inch or two with
the expectation of any advisories diminishing. Also adjusted
tonight's low upward a degree or two.
a shallow inversion featuring subzero temperatures will break
quickly this morning. With warm air advection continuing...high
temperatures will be slightly warmer that Saturday but clouds will
increase through the day ahead of low pressure. The low pressure
system will take shape near Cape Cod late this evening and deepen
significantly as it crosses the Gulf of Maine overnight enroute to
Halifax. The forecast area will receive a glancing blow from the
storm with the best quantitative precipitation forecast along the Washington County coast where
three- tenths of an inch is expected. With snow-water ratios
generally around 15 to 1 or higher...this translates to a narrow
swath of 4-6 inches possible for hard-hit Machias and Eastport as
well as mdi. Amounts will taper to the north such just an inch is
forecast for Fort Kent and Madawaska. With advisory criteria at 5
inches...will hold off on any winter weather headlines until
Short term /Monday through Tuesday/...
low pressure in the Gulf of Maine Monday morning will move away to
the northeast. Strong high pressure will then build in from the
west Monday night and crest over the state Tuesday. Expect snow to
end late Monday as low pressure moves away. Will use a model
consensus approach and blend the NAM... GFS and European model (ecmwf) for pop...
sky and quantitative precipitation forecast. Have use the office snow from thickness tool for snow
accumulations. Will use the nam12 for winds. For temperature and
dew point have used the super blend.
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
high pressure will move to the east Tuesday night as low pressure
approaches from the west. This system is expected to pass to the
northwest of the state Wednesday morning. The track of the low
will result in snow changing to rain across southern and central
areas as warm air advection takes place ahead of the low. Cold air
will return as the low passes to the north late Wednesday and
Wednesday night. High pressure will then build in from the west
Thursday. Will use the super blend to populate grids.
Aviation /11z Sunday through Thursday/...
near term: VFR today and into early Sunday evening. IFR tonight
in snow for all sites. LIFR possible for several hours at
bgr and bhb.
expect IFR/MVFR conditions to transition to VFR Monday. VFR
conditions expected Monday night and Tuesday. IFR conditions
expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. Expect VFR conditions
near term: winds will increase to Small Craft Advisory levels this evening in the
outer waters then decrease again after midnight. With the gale
watch out...have elected not to create a second headline.
Short term: for sustained winds will use the nam12. For waves:
expect off-shore wind wave to dominate Monday with wave heights
dependent on fetch distance off-shore. Southerly wind wave will
build Tuesday night into Wednesday as low pressure pass to the
northwest of the region. Will use the near shore wave model for
wave grids through Tuesday then transition to the ww iii.
this February will end as the all-time coldest month
on record at Bangor...and the coldest February at Caribou. The
latest up to date information on the cold weather this February is
available on the news headlines on the top of our web Page at
Marine...gale watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for