Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
328 am EDT Tuesday may 5 2015
high pressure will build down from Canada on Tuesday and remain
across the region through Thursday. A warm front will lift across
the region on Friday.
Near term /through tonight/...
a red flag warning is in effect for our entire forecast area this
afternoon into the evening for very high fire danger. See the fire
weather discussion below for details.
A cold front is in the process of crossing the state from north to
south this morning. Isolated to scattered showers that are
associated with this boundary will come to an end by daybreak or so
as the front moves offshore. Drier and cooler air will filter in
behind the front. This will result in sunny and breezy conditions
with high temperatures several degrees cooler than yesterday,
especially in the north. The exception will be along the coast,
where northwest winds will allow temperatures to warm into the middle
to upper 60s. A secondary front will approach northern Maine late
this afternoon and cross the state overnight. There could be a few
showers with this frontal passage, but given the dry air that will
be in place, coverage and quantitative precipitation forecast amounts will be minimal.
For tonight...outside of a few showers across the north in the
evening, it will be a dry night under partly to mostly clear skies.
Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s in the north to the middle
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday/...
continued dry with near seasonal temperatures expeceted Wednesday through Thursday under partly
to msly sunny skies...with mixing aloft with stronger winds during
daylight hours allowing for breezy to even windy conditions attms
across portions of the forecast area...especially during the afternoon hours. With surface hi
pressure remaining west of the forecast area...less than ideal radiational cooling
conditions are expeceted for Wednesday night...especially if a frontal band of middle
clouds reaches the region by daybreak Thursday.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
the forecast becomes more complicated for the late week and
upcoming weekend...with longer range models suggesting stubborn
upper troffing to hold just east of the can Maritimes through this period.
This results in warmer air trying to enter the forecast area from west-southwest being
held off...especially from the NE half of the forecast area during this portion of the
forecast. This in turn...could result in two sharply contrasting
regimes to occupy our forecast area...a cloudy cooler and shwry one across
the north and east...and potentially sunnier...drier and much warmer
conditions across the SW...especially Friday and Sat inland from the
coast. Longer range models then slowly sag a cold front southward through
the remainder of the forecast area Sat night through Monday...bring a better chance of
showers to the S half of the forecast area especially sun and Monday. Both low and especially
hi temperatures...which were obtained by utilizing consraw blended model
data for better hi terrain temperatures and either conshpcblend for the
short term or the superblend for lower terrain temperatures...are subject to
major errors for portions of the forecast area even if the models just a little
off with frontal psns especially Friday and Sat. We have a little more
certainty for sun and Monday when we think the cold front slowly
slides S of the forecast area into the Gulf of ME. Given these uncertainties...
we kept maximum shower probability of precipitation in the hi chance category for each period for the
Aviation /07z Tuesday through Saturday/...
near term: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers area possible early this morning and again this
Short to long term: VFR expeceted Wednesday through Friday...then MVFR clgs and
visibilities possible Friday night and Sat with showers...especially northern taf sites.
near term: seas are around 5 feet early this morning, but they
will subside around daybreak as a cold front crosses the waters
and winds turn offshore. No headlines are anticipated.
Short to long term: no hdlns expeceted Wednesday through Friday at this time...with near
Small Craft Advisory WV heights possible msly over outer mzs050-051. Kept close to ww3
WV guidance for forecast WV heights through these portions of the forecast area.
scattered showers associated with the passage of a cold front
early this morning produced minimal rainfall across the region.
Dry conditions will follow in the front's wake with plenty of
sunshine expected today. Although temperatures will be several
degrees cooler than yesterday in most locations, dewpoints are
expected to drop well into the 20s, resulting in low relative
humidity. In addition, gusty west-northwest winds will develop by
this afternoon with gusts to 30 miles per hour. Fine fuels remain dry due to
the recent stretch of sunny and warm weather. Given the day crew's
collaboration with the Maine Forest service yesterday and after
speaking with gyx this morning, have opted to convert the Fire
Weather Watch to a red flag warning. The coastal zones were
included in the red flag warning as the offshore flow will allow
temperatures to warm and dewpoints to drop.
ME...red flag warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for