Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
947 am EDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015
weak high pressure will move south of the area today. Low
pressure will track west of Maine Wednesday. A cold front will
then cross the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
Near term /through tonight/...
940 am update...main change was to introduce isolated showers for
most of the area through the rest of the day. Kcbw radar is down
for maintenance, but we had a light shower move over our office,
and hrrr has just enough instability for isolated showers, so 20
probability of precipitation are warranted.
Temperatures are running a little behind what was expected, but
with clouds thinning out now, think that the forecast highs in the
middle to upper 70s are still within reach.
Low pressure approaching tonight will bring increasing cloudiness.
Some showers may begin to push into far western areas toward
morning. Otherwise, tonight will be mostly cloudy with a light
southerly breeze and humid air.
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday/...
low pressure will track west of Maine Wednesday...drawing a cold
front toward the Saint Lawrence River valley later Wednesday. The
cold front will then begin to cross the region Wednesday night.
An area of showers will move east across the region in advance of
the cold front Wednesday through early Wednesday night. Have also
included the slight chance of an afternoon or early evening
thunderstorm across northwest portions of the forecast area
Wednesday nearest to the approaching cold front. Showers will
decrease across the region later Wednesday night. The front will
begin to slow across downeast areas Thursday while an upper trough
approaches from the west. Expect generally partly sunny skies
along with the slight chance of a shower across the forecast area
Thursday. The front will move south Thursday night while low
pressure lifts along the front. At the same time...high pressure
will begin to build east across the forecast area. Building high
pressure should keep showers with the frontal low east of the
forecast area Thursday night. Otherwise...expect decreasing clouds
across the forecast area Thursday night. Temperatures will be at
slightly below normal levels Wednesday...with near normal level
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
high pressure will build across the region Friday into Saturday.
A cold front should cross the region later Saturday into
Sunday...though the exact timing of the front is still
uncertain. The cold front could bring a slight chance of showers
to mostly northern portions of the forecast area. High pressure is
then expected to build across the region Sunday night into
Monday. Temperatures are expected to be at near normal levels
Friday through Monday.
Aviation /14z Tuesday through Saturday/...
near term: some lingering MVFR and local IFR over northern Maine
this morning, but expect VFR by noon. VFR through this evening,
but lowering clouds may result in conditions dropping to MVFR or
IFR late tonight.
Short term: MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected across the
region Wednesday into early Wednesday night. Conditions should
generally improve to VFR levels later Wednesday night...though
occasional MVFR conditions could linger across northern areas.
Generally VFR conditions are then expected across the region
Thursday into Saturday...though occasional MVFR conditions are
possible across northern areas Saturday afternoon.
near term: winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory today
and tonight. Some fog is possible late tonight.
Short term: conditions are expected to be below Small Craft
Advisory levels Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are
then possible Wednesday night into early Thursday. Conditions are
then expected to be below Small Craft Advisory levels later
Thursday into Thursday night. Visibilities will be reduced in
showers and fog Wednesday into early Wednesday night.