Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
617 PM EST Monday Mar 2 2015
an Arctic cold front will cross the area this evening. High
pressure will ridge across the area on Tuesday from the west.
Another low will cross the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Near term /through Tuesday/...
617 PM...a cold front is crossing the region this evening. A line
of snow showers extends from near Masardis to Monticello in
Aroostook County. The line is moving southeast at around 30 miles per hour
and will weaken as it moves toward northern Washington County over
the next couple of hours. A quick inch of snow...wind gusts to 35
miles per hour...and local whiteouts will accompany this line of snow
showers. Elsewhere just isolated snow showers that will dissipate
within the next hour or two. Much colder air will filter into the
area tonight with wind chills to drop to around 25 below across
far northern Maine after midnight. The main update was to adjust
the probability of precipitation to better reflect the latest radar trends.
snow showers/squalls this evening and then much colder. Wind
chills will be the main concern overnight into Tuesday morning.
20z surface analysis showed the Arctic front making its way southeast
across the region. The first batch of snow showers/squalls out
ahead of the boundary this afternoon per the radar. Another round
setting up and will dive southeast west/the upper level support early this
evening. The latest run of the hrrr 3km and rap model doing well
west/the placement of the snow matching up west/the radar trends. Lapse
rates are steepening at this time especially from 850-700mbs(7.0 c/km).
This combined west/decent shear at 0-3km of 35 kts and forecast cape
80+ joules will be enough to get some more squalls going. 12z
upper air analysis supported the model soundings west/deep moisture
through 700mbs. The heaviest activity will reside from the St.
John Valley Down through Caribou-Presque Isle down into Houlton.
Another area of heavy snow showers/squalls is forecast to drop
across portions of central Maine including the Millinocket-Patten
area along Route 11 and portions of I-95. Brief heavy snow bursts
west/wind gusts to 35 miles per hour will lead to brief whiteouts and visibility 1/4
of a mile or less. Conditions are expected to improve later this
evening as skies begin to clear and the front pushes to the coast.
Winds will remain up at 15 to 25 miles per hour sustained through the
overnight period west/gusts at least 30 miles per hour. These winds combined
west/the Arctic airmass moving in will lead to some dangerous wind
chills across the northern 1/2 of the County Warning Area. Wind chill advisories
remain up for northern areas through Tuesday morning. Attm, it
looks like the Central Highlands and downeast will see wind chills
stay above advisory criteria of -20f.
For Tuesday, high pressure is forecast to ridge across the region
west/daytime temperatures below normal for early March. Clouds will
be on the increase later in the afternoon in advance of the next
system to affect our region. This is explained more in the short
term section below.
Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday/...
looking for another snow event Tuesday night just ahead of a warm front
moving from west to east through the area south of the parent low
passing well to our north. Temperatures will be rising through the
night Tuesday night, but think that for the vast majority of
areas, this will be an all snow event, perhaps ending as just a bit
of light rain near the coast. Looking for about 3 to 5 inches of
After the warm front passes late Tuesday night, we are looking for
a warm day Wednesday with highs above freezing for pretty much
everywhere, and even in the low 40s downeast. The warmth is
short lived, however, as the cold front moves through late
Wednesday. Thursday will be much cooler with temperatures near
steady in the teens to low 20s. There may be a few snow showers
with and behind the front late Wednesday into Thursday, but
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
look for below average temperatures to persist Friday through
early next week. We do not foresee any major storms, but there
could be a few weak ones beyond Friday after weak high pressure
over the area weakens. Too much model disagreement to time the
weak systems this far out.
Aviation /23z Monday through Saturday/...
near term: VFR for the most part for all terminals into Tuesday.
The exception will be this evening as some snow squalls could
bring conditions down briefly to MVFR/IFR mainly for the northern
Short term: IFR or worse areawide Tuesday night with snow.
Precipitation tapering off Wednesday through Thursday with
generally VFR, though MVFR could linger in the north especially
near term: gales are still expected this evening and overnight as
cold air advection hits the waters and the pressure gradient tightens. Gust potential
is possible for gusts to 40 kts. Winds are expected to drop back
to Small Craft Advisory levels by early Tuesday morning. The Small Craft Advisory looks to be short
lived as high pressure ridges in from the south. Seas are coming up
but at least a foot under what was previously forecast. Stayed
close to midnight crew's assessment of those wave heights
building west/a range of 5 to 8 feet overnight and then coming down on
Tuesday. Freezing spray will be developing later this evening
right into early Tuesday morning west/some moderate ice accretion.
Short term: expect prolonged small craft conditions Tuesday night
through Thursday night. Winds will shift from south to northwest
as a system moves through. Seas will peak around 9 feet on
Climate...the meteorological winter which is the 3 month period
of December through February had an average temperature of 16.8
degrees at Bangor. It was the coldest since the winter of
ME...Wind Chill Advisory from 2 am to 7 am EST Tuesday for
Marine...freezing spray advisory from 1 am to 10 am EST Tuesday for
Gale Warning until 6 am EST Tuesday for anz050>052.