Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1232 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014
high pressure will move south of the region today. A cold front
will move south across the region Sunday.
Near term /through tonight/...
update 1230 edt: have adjusted the sky conditions based on latest
visible satellite. Also adjusted the temperature and dew point
based on latest observations. No other changes.
High pressure will shift south of the region today. A
southwesterly breeze will increase as clouds spread across the
north from moisture circulating around the back side of the high.
Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer across the area than
yesterday reaching the middle 70s in many areas but cooler along the
coast. Tonight will be mostly cloudy north and partly cloudy
downeast as moisture continues to circulate in from the southwest.
Dynamic lift out ahead of a shortwave approaching from the Great
Lakes combined with convergence from an approaching cold front
will spread some rain into far northern areas late tonight. The
downeast area should remain rain free overnight.
Short term /Sunday through Monday/...
a cold front will move south across the region Sunday into Sunday
night while low pressure moves along the front. An area of rain
will move south across the forecast area with the cold front
Sunday. Will also have a chance of afternoon thunderstorms which
could produce heavy rain. The front will stall near the downeast
coast Sunday night into Monday...while high pressure moves north
of Maine. The better rain chances Sunday night will occur across
downeast areas...with lesser rain chances northward across the
remainder of the forecast area. A disturbance will cross the region
Monday with showers...along with the chance of an afternoon
thunderstorm. Shower chances then decrease Monday night.
Temperatures will be at near normal levels Sunday/Monday.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
a cold front will approach western areas later Tuesday...then cross
the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Showers/thunderstorms
will occur in advance of the front Tuesday into Tuesday
night...with a lingering chance of showers early Wednesday. High
pressure builds across the region Wednesday night into Thursday
then moves east Friday. Generally expect partly cloudy/mostly
clear skies Wednesday night into Friday. An approaching cold
front could bring a chance of showers Friday. Temperatures will be
at near normal...to slightly above normal...levels Tuesday
Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/...
near term: VFR conditions are expected today. Conditions will
lower to mfr across the north late tonight. Conditions should
remain VFR downeast through most of tonight but may drop to MVFR
or IFR in patchy low clouds very late tonight.
Short term: MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected across the region
Sunday into Sunday night. Occasional MVFR conditions are expected
Monday. Generally VFR conditions are expected later Monday night
into early Tuesday. Occasional MVFR conditions are expected later
Tuesday into Wednesday.
near term: a few wind gusts may approach 25 knots in southwesterlies
late today into tonight. Seas will build to 5 feet tonight requiring
a Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas overnight.
Short term: marginal Small Craft Advisory level seas are expected
Sunday into Sunday night. Conditions are expected to be below
Small Craft Advisory levels Monday into Monday night. Visibilities
will be reduced in rain and fog Sunday into Monday night.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 10 PM this
evening to 8 am EDT Sunday for anz050-051.