Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
950 am EDT Friday Aug 28 2015
high pressure will build over the region today. The high will
move east on Saturday and a weak cold front will approach from the
north late Sunday.
Near term /through tonight/...
945 am...no changes.
a nice late Summer day as high pressure centered over Pennsylvania
early this morning moves slowly east and off the southern New
England coast tonight. Aside from patchy early morning fog today
will be mostly sunny and warm with low humidity. Highs will top
out in the middle to upper 70s. Tonight will be partly cloudy across
northern Maine and mainly clear down east with lows mostly in the
50s...except for some 40s in the northwest valleys. A Little Shallow late
night fog is possible in some of the river valleys across northern
Short term /Saturday through Sunday/...
expect a fairly quiet weekend across the state as surface high
pressure will dominate. However, a couple of weak upper shortwaves
will cross overhead, one on Saturday and another on Sunday. The
first of these will be lacking moisture, so don't expect much more
than a shower or two across the Saint John valley on Saturday.
Sunday's disturbance will be have more available moisture and will
be accompanied by a weak surface boundary, so scattered showers
will be possible, mainly over the northern half of our forecast
area. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly sunny skies and dry
weather. Highs will range from the middle 70s to around 80 both days,
with saturday's overnight low around 60.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
mainly warm and dry through the middle of next week. Upper low
pressure will swing by to our north and east on Monday, resulting
in chances for showers, especially across the north. High pressure
will resume thereafter. An upper shortwave/surface front will move
through on Wednesday. Models differ on the the strength of this
feature, but at this time it looks potent enough to warrant chance
probability of precipitation. High pressure then tries to build back in on Thursday.
Temperatures will remain warmer than normal through the period,
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The first part of next
week will see a warming trend, with Wednesday being the warmest
day of the week; highs in the middle 80s will be possible as 925
temperatures are prognosticated to peak 20c-22c. A little cooler for Thursday
Post front but still mild.
Aviation /14z Friday through Tuesday/...
near term: VFR for the next 24 hours outside of any early morning
fog that may briefly lower the visibility for a short period of time
prior to 11-12z. A few patches of shallow ground fog are possible
after midnight tonight.
Short term: VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the
weekend and into the middle part of next week. Scattered showers
will be possible Sunday and Monday at the northern sites.
Conditions may briefly lower to MVFR in any precipitation.
near term: the wind and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory
levels through tonight.
Short term: no headlines are anticipated through the weekend into
early next week as high pressure remains over the waters.