Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Caribou ME
547 am EST Friday Dec 26 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure will build in today and Saturday. Low pressure will
track across northern Maine Saturday night into Sunday drawing a
cold front across the region later Sunday.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
545 am update...
extended the Wind Advisory out to 10 am instead of allowing it to
end at 6 am. Although sustained winds have come down just a bit,
the gust factor is very high and occasional gusts to 45 miles per hour are
occurring. Had been thinking of allowing it to expire until a
loud sudden gust slammed into our window here at National Weather Service Caribou.

Previous discussion...
main story is the strong westerly winds we have been seeing
overnight, mainly over northern Maine from about Millinocket
north. Several places have had gusts top 45 miles per hour with a couple even
topping 50 miles per hour. This has been enough to lead to some power outages
from Millinocket to Caribou. These winds are on the back side of a
powerful departing low pressure system now in northeast Quebec.

Expect the winds to gradually diminish during the day today.
Still will be a windy day, however. Because of the winds and steep
lapse rates, temperatures have been running much warmer than
guidance tonight. Raised temperatures quite a bit for the rest of
the night and into the early morning, and raised high temperatures
today just a touch. Still, with cold air advection, will be quite
a bit cooler than yesterday with highs in the upper 30s north to
middle 40s south. You know it was really warm when temperatures are
much cooler than the day before, but still much warmer than
average.

Look for dry conditions and partly to mostly cloudy skies over
the north/northwest today, with mostly sunny skies downeast thanks
to downsloping off the higher terrain. Don't expect much change in
the cloud coverage tonight, except perhaps a modest increase in
clouds late tonight. There still will be a westerly breeze
tonight, although quite a bit lighter than early today. The breeze
will be enough to keep the atmosphere from decoupling and lead to
low temperatures still much warmer than average with middle 20s to
low 30s.

&&

Short term /Saturday through Sunday/...
a nearly stationary frontal boundary will remain close to
northern Maine Saturday. Clouds will increase across northern
Maine Saturday with generally partly cloudy skies downeast. Low
pressure tracking east along the stalled frontal boundary will
cross northern Maine later Saturday night through Sunday...though
how rapidly this occurs is still uncertain. The most extensive
precipitation Saturday night into Sunday will occur across
northern areas...nearest the track of the low...with lesser
precipitation totals southward across the remainder of the
forecast area. Generally expect precipitation in the form of snow
across northern portions of the forecast area...though a wintry
mix is possible dependent on the extent of warmer air drawn north
across the region. Several inches of snow are possible across
northern portions of the region later Saturday night into Sunday.
A light wintry mix is expected across central portions of the
forecast area later Saturday night into Sunday...with a chance of
rain or a light wintry mix downeast. The low will draw a cold
front across the region Sunday with precipitation tapering to
snow/rain showers Sunday afternoon. Could still have a chance of
snow showers across the north and mountains Sunday evening...with
partly/mostly cloudy skies overnight. Partly cloudy skies are
expected downeast Sunday night. Temperatures will be at above
normal levels Saturday/Sunday.

&&

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
cold high pressure will build across the region Monday into
Thursday with generally partly cloudy skies across the forecast
area. An approaching cold front could bring a chance of snow
showers later Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures will be at
near normal levels Monday. Below normal level temperatures will
occur Tuesday/Wednesday. Near normal...to slightly above
normal...level temperatures are expected Thursday.

&&

Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
near term: VFR conditions through tonight. More clouds over the
north than south, but think that the cloud bases will remain just
a bit above MVFR levels. Can't rule out a few observation of MVFR, though,
mainly toward Frenchville, at any time today or tonight. Winds
will remain very gusty mainly over the north this morning, then
gradually subside late today and tonight.

Short term: generally VFR conditions are expected across the
region Saturday...though MVFR conditions could begin to develop
across northern areas Saturday afternoon. MVFR to LIFR conditions
are expected across the region Saturday night into early
Sunday...with MVFR conditions persisting later Sunday. Occasional
MVFR conditions could persist across the north and mountains
Sunday night with VFR conditions downeast. Generally VFR
conditions are expected across the entire region Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

Marine...
near term: small craft conditions expected through tonight.
Winds will gradually diminish from west 20 to 25 knots to west 15
to 20 knots with higher gusts. Seas will subside from 5 to 10 feet
this morning to 2 to 5 feet later tonight.

Short term: Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected early
Saturday. Conditions should then fall below Small Craft Advisory
levels Saturday afternoon into early Saturday night. Small Craft
Advisory conditions will then develop again later Saturday night
and persist into Sunday night. Visibilities will be reduced at
times in rain later Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

Climate...
Bangor set a new record on Christmas day, with a high of 54
degrees. This broke the record high of 51 from 2003. On Christmas
day, Caribou and Houlton tied record highs with 48 and 53 degrees,
respectively, both tieing their records from 2003.

&&

Car watches/warnings/advisories...
ME...Wind Advisory until 10 am EST this morning for mez001>006-010.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Saturday for anz050>052.

&&

$$

Near term...foisy
short term...Norcross
long term...Norcross
aviation...foisy/Norcross
marine...foisy/Norcross
climate...foisy

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations