Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
513 am EDT sun Oct 4 2015
high pressure will build across the area today through middle
Near term /through tonight/...
high pressure will build south across the forecast area today
through tonight with mostly clear skies. High temperatures today
will generally range from the upper 50s to around 60 across the
forecast area. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper
20s to around 30 north...to the middle to upper 30s downeast. Coastal
downeast areas...where the growing season is still ongoing...will
need to be monitored for a possible frost advisory tonight.
Short term /Monday through Tuesday/...
strong high pressure will remain over the region Monday and
Tuesday. Will use a 50/50 blend of the GFS and European model (ecmwf) for sky
cover. No precipitation is expected this period.
Hurricane Joaquin is expected to pass well to the southeast of
Maine Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Large long period swell
from Joaquin could produce high surf later Monday into Tuesday.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
a cold front will move across the region Wednesday. Strong high
pressure and a colder air mass will build in behind the cold front
Thursday. The high pressure system is then expected to crest over
the state Thursday night then move to the east Friday. Low
pressure is then expected to approach from the west late Friday.
This system will pass to the north of the region Saturday.
Aviation /09z Sunday through Thursday/...
near term: VFR conditions are expected across the region today
Short term: VFR conditions are expected Monday through Thursday.
near term: a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of
the waters...with the exception of the intracoastal
waters...through this afternoon. Conditions are expected to be
below Small Craft Advisory levels on all the waters tonight.
Short term: will use a model consensus of the nam12 and gfs40 for
sustained winds. For waves: the primary wave system Monday will be
long period wave system from Hurricane Joaquin which is expected
to pass well to the east of the waters Tuesday. Long period waves
are expected to build to a maximum of around 5 feet/13-15 seconds
during the day Tuesday then slowly subside. Long period swell due
to Joaquin will persist through the day Wednesday.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for anz050-