Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1201 am EST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
high pressure from Quebec will slowly crest over the area late
tonight and Wednesday. A south wind will increase Wednesday night
into Thanksgiving day as the high moves east of the region. A
cold front will then slowly approach from the west Thursday night
Near term /through Wednesday/...
update...skies are mainly clear across the area. The clear skies
and light winds have allowed temperatures to fall into the low to
middle teens across most of the area. Only minor tweaks to bring
hourly temperatures in line with current readings.
Previous discussion below...
Latest Sat imagery shows much of the SC that was over the
forecast area last night and Monday now exiting the forecast area. Meanwhile...mid/low cldnss
from a weak middle level vorticity maximum associated with an upper level trough axis
will likely msly remain along or just S of southwestern most portions of the forecast area as
the vorticity maximum moves east-southeast along the southern edge of the Gulf of ME this
evening and then over the north open Atlantic late tonight.
Any cldnss that lingers over the forecast area this evening should then dissipate
late tonight as a moderately strong surface hi approaches the forecast area from the west-southwest. This
will allow for winds to become light and variable...especially over broad valley
areas...and for radiational cooling by Erly Wednesday morning potentially
resulting in the coldest overnight lows of what can be considered a
mild start to the cold season so for. With still some left over snow
cover from ystdy's snfl...valleys over the east central portions of the forecast area could
be competitive with typically colder low temperatures over northwest valleys (which
received little if any snfl).
After a cold start Wednesday morning...temperatures should recover to highs Wednesday after
a few degree milder than tdy's under msly sunny skies with some
increase in warm advcn hi cldnss over the northwest late in the day.
Short term /Wednesday night through Friday/...
surface ridge moves to the east over the Canadian Maritimes during
Thanksgiving day allowing for moist onshore return flow. 925mb
winds increase to 45kts by the afternoon on Thanksgiving day...but
a low-level inversion will keep these winds from reaching the
surface...except for the higher mountains. Temperatures will be
much warmer as warm front pushes through with highs rebounding
into the 40s. Well above average temperatures for Thursday night
with lows getting down into the upper 30s. It will become breezy
on Friday as a surface cold front approaches from Canada. Guidance
has come into better agreement on the timing of the front. Chances
for rain will increase across the North Woods by later Friday
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
Friday night a strong surface cold front will push through the
state. Forecast guidance has come into better agreement today with
the timing of the front. The front will reach the North Woods by
Friday evening and quickly push through the state and off the
coastal waters by Saturday morning. Overall quantitative precipitation forecast amounts with this
feature will be around .50". There will be a brief transition over
to snow on the tail of the precipitation shield...but just a dusting of
snow is most likely. Black ice formation will be the biggest
impact as temperatures rapidly drop for the weekend. Cold weekend is
expected with cold northwest flow...but looks to be dry at this
time. See-saw temperatures continue in the progressive flow for the
beginning of next week as southerly flow returns with a warming
trend back above freezing.
Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
near term: VFR next 24 hours. Light northwest winds will back around to
the southwest after 15z Wednesday but will continue to be light.
Short term: MVFR ceilings could be possible at kbgr/kbhb by
Thanksgiving morning as a marine layer is prognosticated to move onshore
ahead of the approaching cold front. Rain is expected by Friday
night...with a brief transition to snow possible before ending.
near term: we will lower the Small Craft Advisory that has been in effect over
the outer waters over the last day or two with this update...given
that winds and waves have made steady progress to diminish below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds. Winds and waves will continue to slowly subside overnight into
Wednesday morning...with return south-southwest winds just beginning to increase above 10
knots again over the waters as the surface hi moves east into the can
Maritimes. Will continue to stay close to ww3 WV guidance for forecast WV
heights...which has done well over the last few days.
Short term: high pressure will push off the Maine coast Thursday
with strong SW winds developing by the afternoon. A cold front
will begin to approach Maine on Friday...SW winds will continue to
increase through the day with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. Winds will
begin to decrease on Saturday as the front pushes off the coastal