Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
633 PM EDT Thursday Jul 24 2014
high pressure will build south of the area through Friday...then
move east Saturday. Low pressure will begin to move east across
the region Sunday.
Near term /through Friday/...
630 pm: only very minor changes were made to forecast hrly cloud cover and temperatures
going into the overnight based on latest Sat imagery and obsvd 5 and
6 PM temperatures. Otherwise...no sig departures from the last forecast update.
Orgnl disc: surface...high pressure centered over the Midwest this
afternoon will move to the middle Atlantic coast by Friday afternoon.
A cold front across the Gulf of Maine this afternoon will continue
to slide to the southeast and way from the region during the next
Aloft...an upper low near the Belcher islands in Hudson Bay will
move across far northern Quebec through Friday. The local area will
remain in very weakly cyclonic flow to the south of the low. There
will be some weak shortwave energy aloft in the flow that crosses
northern Maine Friday.
Sensible weather...clearing across coastal Washington County by early
this evening with a mainly clear night for the County Warning Area. A dry air mass
and relatively light wind will make for a cool night with lows from
the middle 40s to low 50s across the north and upper 40s for interior
downeast to the middle 50s along the coast. A few of the normal cold
spots up north could drop close to 40f. Did lower temperatures a fair
amount tonight...especially across the northern and central
valleys. A few patches of fog are possible in the sheltered river
valleys toward dawn. Friday will see an increase in clouds across
northern and western Maine with the chance of a shower...mainly
during the afternoon across The Crown of Maine. Instability is
only marginal so although a very isolated weak thunderstorm could
develop will not mention any storms. Temperatures will be seasonable with
highs mostly in the M/u 70s across northern Maine to the low 80s
Short term /Friday night through Sunday/...
high pressure will move south of the region Friday night through
Saturday. Expect partly cloudy skies north with mostly clear skies
downeast Friday night. Partly/mostly sunny skies are expected
across the region Saturday...though an upper disturbance could
bring the slight chance of an afternoon shower. Low pressure will
approach from the west Saturday night with increasing clouds along
with a chance of showers. The low will begin to cross the region
Sunday with more extensive showers and possibly a steadier rain.
However...the coverage and timing of precipitation is still
uncertain. Temperatures will be at near normal...to slightly above
normal...levels Saturday. Temperatures will be at slightly below
normal levels Sunday.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
a trough of low pressure moving into the east will bring a series of
small low pressure systems across the area early next week with a
moderation in temperatures during the middle week. Sunday night will be mostly
cloudy with a small chance for showers as one weak low moves away
and another approaches along a stalled frontal boundary. Showers
will be possible Monday into Tuesday as surface low pressure tracks
along the stalled front. Drier air may then filter into the area
Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing warmer temperatures. The upper level
trough to our west may produce a shower or thundershowers late
Wednesday, especially in western spots. Thursday and Friday should
then be partly sunny, warmer and more humid as the upper trough
lifts away and surface high pressure to our east pushes warmer air
into the state. Isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible
Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/...
near term: VFR for the next 24 hours. Slight chance that there
could be some patchy late night fog at kpqi...khul...or kbhb.
Short term: VFR conditions are expected Friday night through
Saturday. Conditions will then lower to MVFR/IFR levels Saturday
night...with similar conditions Sunday into early Sunday night.
VFR conditions are expected later Sunday night with possible MVFR
conditions across the far north. MVFR to IFR conditions are likely
in lower clouds and showers Monday into Tuesday.
near term: the wind and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through
Short term: conditions are expected to be below Small Craft
Advisory levels Friday night and Saturday. Small Craft Advisory
level seas are then possible later Saturday night into Sunday.
Visibilities will be reduced in showers and fog later Saturday
night into Sunday.