Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
356 PM EDT Monday may 4 2015
a cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure will build
down from Canada on Tuesday and remain across the region through
Near term /through Tuesday/...
the big item here is the fire danger and this is addressed in the
fire weather section below.
Temperatures soared into the lower 80s for many sites across the
region west/the exception of the downeast coast as a south-southwest wind kept
temperatures down. 18z surface analysis had the cold front still well back
across western Quebec and Ontario. Some showers showing up along &
ahead of the front from southern Quebec back into Ontario. The
front is expected to slide across the region later tonight west/a
broken line of showers associated W/it. 12z upper air showed deepest
moisture confined from 700mbs and above. There is a nice jet maximum
from 700-500mbs that moves across the region overnight to aid in
some forcing. Teh best forcing will be across the west and
northern areas. Model soundings showed some instability but again
this is elevated and confined to the western border around
midnight or so. 700-500mbs lapse rates of 6.0-6.5 c/km west/lifted indices
around 0 and precipitable waters at best around 0.90". Therefore, included
isolated thunder in the western areas. Overnight temperatures will
fall back but will be well above normal for early may.
For Tuesday, the front will clear the coast by midday west/showers
exiting the coast. Clearing and northwest winds kicking in behind the
front will dry things out quickly. Daytime temperatures will be
about 5 degrees or so cooler than they were today but still
pleasant. Total quantitative precipitation forecast from this event will be at best around 0.10"
and this will be confined across the northern and western areas.
Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday/...
a long corridor of high pressure and dry weather extending from our
area Tuesday night, northwest through central Canada, will dominate
our weather through the middle week period. A weak shortwave and
secondary cold front may bring a sprinkle to some northern areas
early Tuesday evening. Otherwise, Tuesday night will become clear to
partly cloudy and cool. This will be followed by a mostly sunny and
seasonably warm day on Wednesday. Wednesday night into early
Thursday will be partly cloudy. We will be along a boundary between
cooler drier air to the north and east, and warmer more humid air to
the southwest. Thursday will turn out sunny to partly cloudy and
warm across the area as the high builds over and upper level ridging
begins to press in from the west.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
the temperature boundary across the area will become a warm front
and push north on Friday as low pressure tracks into central Canada.
This will bring clouds and a chance for some showers over the north.
Warmer and more humid air will push north into the region Saturday.
The warm front will push just north of the area, but will begin to
stall as it presses into the cooler air to the north, and form a
triple point just north of our area as a cold front follows the low
on Saturday. This will keep the north a bit unsettled with a chance
for some spotty showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm.
Downeast will be partly to mostly sunny, warm and relatively humid.
The cold front will then push down with a chance for some showers
Saturday night. Drying should follow across the north on Sunday with
a chance for some showers downeast on Sunday where the front will
Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
near term: VFR right into Tuesday west/gusty northwest winds of 20 kts or
Short term: VFR conditions are expected Tuesday night through
Thursday. Conditions may drop to MVFR across the north late
Thursday night into Friday with some showers. MVFR conditions
across the north and VFR conditions downeast are expected on
near term: conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels
right into Tuesday. The northwest winds on Tuesday could hit gusts in
the lower 20s and this will be mainly for the outer waters. Seas
will be less than 3 feet.
Short term: winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
through this week with a weak gradient and high pressure
dominating the coastal area.
the red flag warning will expire at 8 PM per coordination west/Maine
Forest service and gyx. Winds will drop off this evening
west/relative humidity climbing.
A cold front will cross the region this evening. However, only a
0.10" or less of rain is expected in most areas as this front
moves through tonight. Dry weather will follow the front and
Tuesday will bring a mostly sunny sky with a gusty west-northwest
wind of up to 30 miles per hour and low relative humidity. Fine fuels remain
dry due to recent sunny and warm weather, and will likely remain
dry on Tuesday. This will lead to another day of very high fire
danger. Collaborated west/the Maine Forest service and gyx on this
potential and decided to go west/a Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday
minus the coast as temperatures and winds will not be as high.
This will need to be monitored by the later shifts as whether or
not the coast will need to be added.
ME...red flag warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for mez001>006-
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for mez001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032.