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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1133 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
HIGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
11:30 PM UPDATE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH AND LOWERED
TEMPS A BIT EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR. 

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAD THE BEST ENHANCED CLOUDS ALONG AND JUST OFF
THE COAST W/THE BEST RAINFALL WELL S AND E OF THE REGION. SOME
LIGHTER RETURNS PER THE RADAR MOVING UP INTO SW MAINE W/SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK THE POPS AGAIN KEEPING THE N
AND W DRY. CUT BACK POPS TO CHANCE (30-40%) FOR THE DOWNEAST
REGION, PRIMARILY THE COAST W/THE WX ELEMENT BEING LIGHT SNOW.

AS THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED S OF THE GULF OF ME ON
SAT...SN SHWRS WILL TRANSLATE SE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA BY
SAT AFTN...WITH PERHAPS EVEN STEADY LGT SNFL BRUSHING THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE EAST...
SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO WITH CHC OR LESS POPS OVR THE SRN
PTN OF THE FA...WE GO WITH SN SHWR CVRG WORDING. MOST LCTNS
RECEIVING ANY SN OVR W CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM LATE TNGT
THRU SAT WILL RECEIVE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH...WITH LCLY
ARND AN INCH POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST/OUTER ISLANDS...BEFORE SN SHWRS MOVE SE OF THE
REGION SAT EVE. A STEADY CLRG TREND SHOULD THEN PROGRESS NW TO SE
THRU THE REGION SAT NGT.

WITH MSLY TO FULLY CLDY SKIES AND A LGT N BREEZE TNGT...TEMPS WILL
COOL AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE INTO THE FA...BUT
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL OF SIG COLDER VLY OVRNGT LOWS WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SFC INVSN FORMATION POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY. THE APCH OF THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS TO THE WRN ME/ERN QB BORDER BY ERLY SUN MORN MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK SFC INVSN FORMATION AND DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS FROM
WINDS ALF BY DAWN SUNDAY MORN FOR COLDER LOW TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND
SPCLY WRN BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS...OTHERWISE A STEADY NW BREEZE WILL
LIMIT LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN 20 DEG F FROM HI TEMPS
ON SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES CENTRAL
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MEAN THAT
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH
DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END, ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP-AROUND
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING
OF THIS SYSTEM; THE GFS HAS A 985 LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND FASTER- MOVING LOW THAT WILL TREK
OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE STRONGER, WETTER SOLUTION COMES TRUE, IT
COULD VERY WELL MEAN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS, ESPECIALLY FOR
DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL OF THE TAF SITES HAVE RECOVERED TO AT LEAST LOW VFR
FROM MVFR CLGS EARLIER THIS AFTN. VFR SHOULD CONT THRU ALL OF THE
EVE...THEN MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF CONDITIONAL CLG CATEGORY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLGS LOWERING TO MVFR ALL TAF SITES LATE TNGT
OR ERLY SAT MORN AS AN UPPER LVL TROF APCHS FROM THE W. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ISOLD TO SCT SN SHWR AS WELL SAT...
SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES. OTHERWISE...CLGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO AT
LEAST LOW VFR SAT AFTN INITIALLY ACROSS THE N...THEN DOWNEAST
LATE...FOLLOWED BY UNLMTD VFR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SAT NGT. 

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES A SE SWELL CONTG MSLY OVR OUR
OUTER WATERS THRU TNGT...JUSTIFYING THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA
FOR HAZ SEAS OVR THIS REGION. AFTWRDS...A GENERIC SCA WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUT WATERS FROM ERLY SAT MORN...LIKELY INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HRS SUN MORN DUE TO WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW MOVG E INTO THE OPEN ATLC FROM THE MID ATLC STATES. THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH COLD LLVL ADVCN BY LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN
FOR A BRIEF PD OF LGT FZGSPY.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH WINDS LOOK
TO BE MORE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT 
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER

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